AIBU to ask if you think there's a chance schools could be closed till September?

[Turmericpie]

I had assumed worse case scenario would be summer term...but it was pointed out to me tonight that if vaccinations are slow in rolling out, it could quite conceivably be September.

Thoughts?

Current death rate isn’t going to drop for at least 5 weeks. This means 35,000 people will die in January/February.

Hospital cases won’t drop for many weeks after that, irrespective of vaccination.

It isn’t realistic to hope for/expect schools back in February.

Easter may be what Johnson goes for. In my own view that would be too early, and will drive infection rates back up, especially for teachers who deserve better.

In saying that, I appreciate I’m lucky with kids who are largely independent learners and compliant, and good online learning programmes from schools.

@Busygoingblah. No ones denying those other professions aren't high risk too, but none of them spend the whole day, in a small room, with no ventilation & no PPE with at least 30 other people.

@MovedByFanciesThatAreCurled

Totally agree. Can’t bear it when posters just drop a hugely anxiety-inducing bomb shell like this with no explanation/reasoning. Nihilistic, vague catastrophising is not helpful.

The OP hasn't 'dropped' anything. She's asked a question. It was obvious what the thread was about, so why bother clicking on it if you're going to get yourself stresssd out?

@gingganggooleywotsit

Thanks for ruining my evening op what an awful thought. I sincerely hope not.

Hardly the OPs fault

@Yellownotblue

Current death rate isn’t going to drop for at least 5 weeks. This means 35,000 people will die in January/February.

Hospital cases won’t drop for many weeks after that, irrespective of vaccination.

It isn’t realistic to hope for/expect schools back in February.

Easter may be what Johnson goes for. In my own view that would be too early, and will drive infection rates back up, especially for teachers who deserve better.

In saying that, I appreciate I’m lucky with kids who are largely independent learners and compliant, and good online learning programmes from schools.

On what are you basing your doom & gloom predictions?

Schools will (start to) open from after the Feb half term.

@WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants, I’m only following what SAGE members are saying. I don’t think it’s doom and gloom, only realistic. False hope is a worse enemy in my view.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/uk-covid-deaths-reach-new-daily-peak-and-set-to-stay-there-a-month

I'd say the summer (pessimistic).
I'd say Easter (optimistic).

Everyone would hope not, but nobody can say for definite what is going to happen about lots of things as yet.

As a teacher I sincerely hope the government is using this time, to put in place measures to open schools safely after Feb half term.
Decent plans for testing carried out by people who know what they are doing; appropriate SD measures; masks at all times and appropriate self isolation plans/directions....not replaced by inaccurate daily testing; CV staff allowed to work from home and additional staff brought in using additional funding.
If the government make schools as safe as they can be (actually, not just saying that), I think we need to get back in the classroom as soon as we can and my preference would be February.

I think they will open in March. The most vulnerable people will be vaccinated and the warmer weather at the start of spring is always much better for NHS generally.

@bluebellscorner

I fear it may be September, at least a lot of people seem to think so? I don't know if this is based on any facts or if it is speculation. I would say that most (every) worst case scenario to date has come to pass, so why would this be an exception.

It would be absolutely awful. I don't know what we would do. I really, really hope that schools will reopen as soon as possible. Fingers crossed!!!!

No it’s not based on any facts. Just based on the mass hysteria that some people are trying to create on here.

I’ve been quietly assuming not until September. I can see summer term happening (maybe for certain years only) and not losing sight of that but prefer to learn from experience and ready my expectations for likely slippage in timetables where Covid is concerned.

@GorgonzolaSouffle

I’ve told ds y11 he might not be back to school this year

Clearly a troll. No parent would deliberately scare their child like that with idle speculation that is so far removed from the facts.

@DBML

As a teacher I sincerely hope the government is using this time, to put in place measures to open schools safely after Feb half term. Decent plans for testing carried out by people who know what they are doing; appropriate SD measures; masks at all times and appropriate self isolation plans/directions....not replaced by inaccurate daily testing; CV staff allowed to work from home and additional staff brought in using additional funding. If the government make schools as safe as they can be (actually, not just saying that), I think we need to get back in the classroom as soon as we can and my preference would be February.

Echoing this.

I’ve told dd I think it will be the end of March. Ie to the Easter holidays. I really hope it won’t be longer.

I think though primaries will go back, possibly staggered by KS after half term. Secondaries back, staggered, after Easter but then I'm a mere secondary teacher, what would I know?

@Covidasaurus

Speak to any NHS or local authority staff and they are not expecting return before September. Might just be worst-case planning, but...

Not sure what NHS staff have to do with planning around schools opening, or why their opinion on what the situation will be in 3 months is any more relevant than anyone else's? NHS staff can tell us what's happening in hospitals now, but they have no special insight into what will happen 3 months down the line.

I think they will be closed until September, but will close again come christmad. Planning on doing a masters after I complete my undergrad this year as I know I won't be able to work full time with DD at home and in year 1, which will be a critical year for her.

codename I bloody well hope and expect quite a few appropriate nhs and local authority staff to be working closely with those who have insight into likely scenarios/projections in order to be able to plan as best as possible. Not just for the next month but further.
I would hope they do have a better understanding of how this may play out or play on than those of us not involved in the provision of key services.
Obviously those currently spending all of their time actually dealing on the front line, no but others yes !

Do you all really think we will be in a lockdown until September?! I really can’t see them opening up the pubs before the schools this time. So saying you think schools will be off until September, do you honestly not see any shops/hospitality opening until then?! I’m hoping by Easter at the very latest!

Can't even imagine. Every night I wake feeling sick at my 14 y. O lack of education. She missed 5 months y8 (fuck all online) and has received less than 3 months Y9. Online classes for maths and science not provided🙄. It's diabolical and it'll be her years who really suffer with gcse.

I think and hope partial opening after Feb half term, with some if not all primary years going back, but i think they'll keep secondaries closed longer, i doubt post Easter.

Given how reluctant the government was to close them (or more accurately limit whose children can attend), I think they will be opened before Easter.

Jesus am i the only one thinking Feb at the latest? I can't get my head around it being longer...😫