AIBU to ask if you think there's a chance schools could be closed till September?

[Turmericpie]

I had assumed worse case scenario would be summer term...but it was pointed out to me tonight that if vaccinations are slow in rolling out, it could quite conceivably be September.

Thoughts?

Everybody is saying/wishing dates. It should be:

• when case number is XXX AND positivity rate is X%

AND

• masks AND rotas in schools

AND

• proper test/track/trace/isolate protocol

will be in place.

It's irrelevant what date anyone says. But the problem is that gov is still also operating with dates. So the most likely scenario is that due to "pressure from society"* this gov will again open up too soon, without enough mitigation measures and we will be back here in about 6-8 months time.

*meaning: millions who cannot even comprehend the basics of what the hell is going on and can be easily manipulated into spouting whatever is in the daily mail or likes :(

No I don’t, I think with the vaccine and warmer weather numbers will start to drop significantly come March.

I have a feeling it’ll be September. I have nothing to base that on, as I say, just a feeling.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Everybody is saying/wishing dates. It should be:

• when case number is XXX AND positivity rate is X%

AND

• masks AND rotas in schools

AND

• proper test/track/trace/isolate protocol

will be in place.

It's irrelevant what date anyone says. But the problem is that gov is still also operating with dates. So the most likely scenario is that due to "pressure from society"* this gov will again open up too soon, without enough mitigation measures and we will be back here in about 6-8 months time.

*meaning: millions who cannot even comprehend the basics of what the hell is going on and can be easily manipulated into spouting whatever is in the daily mail or likes :(

Do you not think that the vaccine will improve things?

Needs to be after Easter at the latest. September is no good - seasons are on the turn and the winter viruses start revving up. Schools should definitely be back in the warm sunny low infection rates of June and July, would be madness to have them closed again.

Nobody's got a crystal ball.

I think Easter but I'm concerned that there will be a repeat of secondary school reopening like last time which isn't good enough.

By that I mean last time there was no thought put into secondary school reopening bar make sure there's lots of bins for masks so that kids can change mask when they arrive at school. Y10 and y12 didn't go back full time - BJ said something like he hoped that exam kids would get face to face time with a teacher.

My friend predicted this to me yesterday. I’m thinking not though. I think it will be Easter latest, maybe some year groups before others. I’m still thinking some will go back after half term. Maybe optimistic but it’s hell for people.

Too many unknowns to speculate.

@Pinotwoman82

September? I really hope not! Boris said that schools will be one of the first things opening up. After Easter hopefully

Boris Aso said he won't guarantee schools reopening before the summer holidays which is a concern

Partial opening at least from Easter

Partial opening is essentially pointless, either the circulating levels of the virus is low enough that mixing is possible, or it isn't, mixing between 15 or 30 is not sufficiently different to reduce the spread, particularly against the variant strain.

Only one thing I’ll predict.

Hysterical arseholes on mumsnet will enjoy stirring up the anxiety of others by posting shit like this. Somebody will come along claiming inside information, the hysterical will become more so.

Every time.

Please no. My DCs mental health will be shattered. As will mine.

It’s interesting to see those working in schools on here saying that they want all the kids back, because that’s not what the unions would have us believe. This time around is very different to Lockdown 1 though.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Everybody is saying/wishing dates. It should be:

• when case number is XXX AND positivity rate is X%

AND

• masks AND rotas in schools

AND

• proper test/track/trace/isolate protocol

will be in place.

It's irrelevant what date anyone says. But the problem is that gov is still also operating with dates. So the most likely scenario is that due to "pressure from society"* this gov will again open up too soon, without enough mitigation measures and we will be back here in about 6-8 months time.

*meaning: millions who cannot even comprehend the basics of what the hell is going on and can be easily manipulated into spouting whatever is in the daily mail or likes :(

Why would we be back here in 6-8 months when a huge amount of people will be vaccinated by then?

They would have to extend furlough again if they don't reopen until September.

No school until Easter/September but still people going to and from holidays with nothing more than a 3-day-old negative test from another country? New variants coming into the country the whole time.
How about another EOTHO scheme while children are still doing online learning in June/July?

Boris Aso said he won't guarantee schools reopening before the summer holidays which is a concern

This was Chris whitty and he said thst he couldn't guarantee anything. Which he can't

@MrsMiaWallis
The vaccine will not stop infections (at least as we know now). It will bring death numbers down. But given the UK priority list I have a fear that we are not vaccinating the meaningful part of population that would help bringing infections down.
The UK is vanity vaccinating. Which is very risky in a situation of limited supply.
And if infections are still high there is a logical consequence on schools (disruption), economy, wellfare, everything. But our death numbers will be much nicer. yay.
Plus: because of vaccines being presented and shouted over and over again to be the magic bullet, as soon as the initial vaccines are in ppl (70+ and hcp) general population will ease up. Drop mask usage, SD,... and then will be in a fucking mess again. But our death numbers will be much nicer. yay. Potential long covid numbers could skyrocket, but hey, let the next gov sort those out.

Plus, going against manufacturer's advise doesn't fill me with confidence. If they would have coupled it with a robust research/follow up initiative, then I'd be less worried, because then on week 8, if efficacy suddenly drops to eg 30% it would be picked up and could be remedied. But here we are blindly playing russian roulette with lives.

Even if cases are high again next winter, please don’t lock us down again! This is not life !!!

I’d rather be dead

@Daphnise

At least September. Maybe all year if the vaccinations don't go to plan or are found not to work as well predicted.

So speaks the voice of doom!

At least September? Not till next year?! Boris has stated it’s his priority to reopen schools as soon as possible, and the vaccine rollout is really ramping up now. I’d expect to see at least some schools reopen by March.

Given the huge number of key worker children still attending school, keeping them closed will be of limited benefit anyway.

We are not currently being slow in rolling out vaccines. Keep up to date with the situation.

Why would we be back here in 6-8 months when a huge amount of people will be vaccinated by then That was a good plan a few months ago, but the new variant is putting many more non-ECV non-elderly people in hospital and these people won't get the vaccine any time soon under current plans. But they will still get very ill and still need hospital treatment. The vaccination plan needs to be expanded to include all adults now there is the new variant.

Fucking hell, February is bad enough! Easter I hope not!