AIBU to ask if you think there's a chance schools could be closed till September?

[Turmericpie]

I had assumed worse case scenario would be summer term...but it was pointed out to me tonight that if vaccinations are slow in rolling out, it could quite conceivably be September.

Thoughts?

[quote QuantumQuality]@Benjispruce2 You’ve mixed up deaths and serious illness. Vaccinating over 70s will dramatically reduce deaths, but ICUs aren’t full of over 70s because they mostly wouldn’t survive it. ICU pressure won’t reduce until over 50s are vaccinated.[/quote]
It will because the average age of ITU patients is 60 and the majority of younger ones will have other conditions which make them more vulnerable, which are vaccinated in group 4 (CEV) or 6 (CV).

If the average age of people in ITU is 60, in what way do you think vaccinating the over 70s will help? Once group 6 is vaccinated, that’s a different thing.

@LickEmbysmiling

They are rushing back dc as soon as possible. There are calls that gavin needs to stand up to the unions but to do that h needs to prove that schools ate safe. Some reports say teachers are not at risk, others say they are. Some reports are trying to say covid doesn't spread in school.

The bottom line is that teachers lives and other school staff who come into contact with students are not expendable. Their lives matter so until every stop is pulled out to ensure their safety no one should be going back
That means pulling every stop out, masks, self isolation, social distancing, heating, warm clothes, vaccines..

Teachers lives do matt8. Shame the same can't be said for nursery staff, care workers, supermarket staff, delivery drivers etc

yes

but they're not really closed are they?
If around 50% of pupils are still going in, the current "half closure" will make fuck all difference to the spread anyway.

@EveryDayIsADuvetDay

yes

but they're not really closed are they?
If around 50% of pupils are still going in, the current "half closure" will make fuck all difference to the spread anyway.

But they’re not, 20% primary and 4% secondary.

When infection rates drop and the most vulnerable are vaccinated people are going to have to get on with it to a certain extent, can’t all hide inside forever

@BungleandGeorge
Where are those stats from. If true that is really encouraging but very different from what I've heard in our local area

35% in my school are keyworker.
If the average age is 60, then half are over 60 and half younger. As a pp said, those younger are more likely to have underlying conditions so will be vaccinated earlier.

Men in their 40s, 50s and 60s are the ones filling the intensive care units.

Schools are a massive vehicle for transmission.

The extended 12 week gap between jabs adds three months...

The government don't seem to have any plans to make schools safer environments
.
I think September for all schools back is a reasonable assumption.

Yes, on the face of it, the kids are being educated & no child is missing out because there is online learning provision, but come, be realistic!

Remote learning will always be a poor substitute for learning in a classroom with a teacher, everyone face to face, younger primary age children tend to require close supervision by parents.

I do not believe most 5/6 yr olds are capable of following zoom teaching all day if they are left on their own. Also, it goes without saying, young children need to be with their friends, to socialise and learn through play. Staying home for such a long time can only a negative thing (IMO).

Remote learning cannot give children learning 9am-3pm every day (unless they have someone closely supervising them at home), the best ones I’ve heard from friends with children at other schools is where the different work topics are loaded onto the website and so the child can work through them in any order and at any time of day. The worst appears to be where a child is expected to be logged into zoom from early morning til 3pm, work has to be done in real time- this does not work for parents who need to work from home (in the small sample of people I have spoken with!)

Some of our friends are literally at breaking point trying to combine both parents home working while also trying to supervise schoolwork of their primary school children. Some are getting up at 4am to get work done before kids are up, others just cannot be 'present' during the day as they have work zoom sessions, need to concentrate & continue with same workloads.

It’s all very well if you have a parent who is at home with no work responsibilities, that can be a good circumstance for home learning, but for the rest who do not have this situation, home learning is far from ideal and I for one cannot wait until the primary schools reopen for every child! Am still hopeful for after February half term

I think now that the DfE have had to stop the plans for LF testing to replace self-isolation for close contacts, they will need another plan to mitigate risk in schools. That may take time though as I don’t think there was a plan B.

Perhaps masks and only some year groups back in some low-case areas first. They are also talking about vaccinations for school staff but with supplies of the Pfizer vaccine being delayed in January and evidence suggesting they are less effective than it was first thought, without the second jab 3 weeks later, that may be complicated.

8th March
Crazy in my humble opinion but I’m not in charge

I think it may not be all pupils, but some from 8 March. Probably others at least straight after Easter.

@Covidasaurus

Speak to any NHS or local authority staff and they are not expecting return before September. Might just be worst-case planning, but...

I’m local authority staff and I think after Easter...

I think March 8th

“I’m local authority staff and I think after Easter..“

I don’t think it matters who we are.....I don’t think anyone is on the know. Gavlar and Boris don’t seem to have a clue

I thought Boris was aiming for 8.March ?

Boris said no earlier than the 8th March. Today the Telegraph seemed to be suggesting that schools won’t be opening then.

I assumed it would be soon after March 8th for the younger year groups. Keeping children isolated like this is actually quite cruel, especially when they are at such low risk for even displaying symptoms of this virus let alone becoming seriously ill. I think people are talking/thinking more about the social impact it will have on kids rather than purely educational. Children have forgotten how to play with each other. Has there been any other period in history where children were banned from normal social contact for this long? I think it’s a serious concern.

It will be after Easter.

DB is part of the curriculum team at Oak Academy. They've been told it's likely to be a phased return for primary children from March, with secondary exam year students returning after Easter. Possibly no return for non-exam year kids until September. I don't want to believe this but it sounds scarily plausible to me.

They need to get on with vaccinations for school staff

@TheVelvetiser

DB is part of the curriculum team at Oak Academy. They've been told it's likely to be a phased return for primary children from March, with secondary exam year students returning after Easter. Possibly no return for non-exam year kids until September. I don't want to believe this but it sounds scarily plausible to me.

But then pubs couldn’t open until September at the earliest. Secondary schools are not “ope if it’s only years 10 and 11 that are allowed inside them. And aren’t schools supposed to be open before anything else?

@Marypoppins19

They need to get on with vaccinations for school staff

And all of the other people that work in roles with human interface. Retail staff, prison staff, police, manufacturing staff etc etc. There is absolutely no reason why teachers should go ahead of any of these groups. Research proves that teachers are no more or less likely to get it than any other profession. The UK has the third fastest roll out of the vaccination in the world. We will all be done soon. Nobody should jump the queue unless there is evidence to prove they are at greater risk than others.

@Lemons1571 my thoughts exactly. My worry is they'll shift the goalposts (again!) and claim that what they meant by prioritising schools was actually only prioritising those year groups they believe are most in need of face to face teaching.

@Thatwentbadly

Boris said no earlier than the 8th March. Today the Telegraph seemed to be suggesting that schools won’t be opening then.

This came up at our dinner today but with regards to the school reopening, we've found everything from everybody on 8 March to nobody until Easter and everything in between.

This is the situation in Israel who are ahead of us in vaccinations. The serious hospitalizations of under 60s hasn't fallen yet