AIBU to ask if you think there's a chance schools could be closed till September?

[Turmericpie]

I had assumed worse case scenario would be summer term...but it was pointed out to me tonight that if vaccinations are slow in rolling out, it could quite conceivably be September.

Thoughts?

It would fill me with confidence if we knew how much vaccines is going to be available at what times.
But we don't know. So sating that most will be vaccinated by X date is just wishing a unicorn, not fact.
All pages of all these contracts should be public domain information.
All companies that have an approved vaccine should have a timetable on their site with rough, planned numbers. This would ensure the max transparency that we could hope for.

Even this way there is a chance that any gov+ any comp would collude and say fake things, but highly unlikely and more nuts theory than potential reality :)

The actual Prime Minister said this was a possibility, I’m not sure why anyone is surprised it’s a possibility. I mean, apart from the fact that he’s a notorious liar. But he usually lies in the positive direction.

@benedicto

Why would we be back here in 6-8 months when a huge amount of people will be vaccinated by then That was a good plan a few months ago, but the new variant is putting many more non-ECV non-elderly people in hospital and these people won't get the vaccine any time soon under current plans. But they will still get very ill and still need hospital treatment. The vaccination plan needs to be expanded to include all adults now there is the new variant.

In 8 months time a large majority of adults should have received at least the first dose. Therefore making it more manageable in hospitals.

I hope it isn't for several reasons! DD is Y6 and will want to see everyone before they go off to various secondary schools. Also two whole terms of school missed is just so much?!
However, so many primary schools have a high number of kids in which won't help reduce the spread. A family member of DP has just been making a thing tonight they have space for their DC 2 days a week but I can't see why their need/struggle trumps that of others. This has really annoyed me!!

The vaccine will not stop infections (at least as we know now). It will bring death numbers down The current priority list has been designed to reduce deaths, not infections (which I don't have a problem with).
But until all adults are vaccinated, there will still be infections rampant among adults who are not on the priority list (all under 50s without health conditions) - there are plenty of people in this group currently seriously ill in hospital. Hospitalisations will reduce but may remain high.
Vaccination of the entire adult population should not be a long-term aim but a short-medium term aim.

@Covidasaurus

Speak to any NHS or local authority staff and they are not expecting return before September. Might just be worst-case planning, but...

I'm NHS staff, for my dds sake I'm wishing after Feb half term, but more realistic about probably after Easter.

I haven't heard a single member of NHS staff saying we are planning for schools to be off until September. That is ridiculous.

@Waxonwaxoff0
Why do keep saying this? How do you know?
It means about 42m people would need to be vaccinated.
Weekly 1 mil - it will take 42 weeks. That is not 8 months. And halfway through you might need to restart everything if immunity wears off....

Too much doom and gloom here. Of course schools are a priority to reopen as they were last to close. Would hope to see all back after Easter and I am optimistically hoping for some beforehand. My DS's secondary have said they are now testing staff and keyworker pupils so that is another step many will be doing.

@benedicto

The vaccine will not stop infections (at least as we know now). It will bring death numbers down The current priority list has been designed to reduce deaths, not infections (which I don't have a problem with). But until all adults are vaccinated, there will still be infections rampant among adults who are not on the priority list (all under 50s without health conditions) - there are plenty of people in this group currently seriously ill in hospital. Hospitalisations will reduce but may remain high. Vaccination of the entire adult population should not be a long-term aim but a short-medium term aim.

We disagree on the priority list being right, but apart from that I agree. Thanks for the calm, logical attitude :)

Why the fuck is this not in the Covid Secrion. Some of us don't want to see your doom and gloom in the title!!

Sobwhy did you open the thread and post on it then?

In 8 months time a large majority of adults should have received at least the first dose. Therefore making it more manageable in hospitals
I do hope so. I'd like this to be done by April, not September.
Years 11 and 13 have had 3 terms of in-school teaching out of a 2 year course and will get predicted grades without much opportunity to show what they can do.
Years 10 and 12 have had 1 term of in-school teaching and teachers will have to give predicted grades based on a couple of assessments before the pupils had a chance to get going. That has very serious implications for the year 12s and their university applications.

Hope not - my dd is in Y10 and is meant to be preparing for her GCSE's... don't think she's got much of a future ahead if she misses this year on top of Y9...

Please not, as a teacher I am massively missing the kids and the face to face interaction, teaching microscopy today to year 7s remotely when they should be having the fun and excitement of looking down the lens and going “wow”
What needs to happen hahaha is for the government to listen to schools. Blended learning ( eg week in, week out) as practised by many other countries and suggested here for the return in September may well have flattened the curve and helped keep kids in school.

I think some classed may start going back in February if cases and hospitalisations go down enough. Probably groups such as reception, year 6, year 7, year 10. Looking at the numbers though I do think I’m being optimistic. I think Easter.

1. There’s a coronavirus board.
2. No one knows.

HTH.

@TheSunIsStillShining of course I don't know. But neither do you.

You don't need to vaccinate every single person for the pressure to start easing. The point is not and has never been to stop people getting Covid. The point is to reduce pressure on hospitals. People will still get ill from Covid and need hospital treatment, but if it's on a manageable level, life will start to get back to normal.

I think it’s possible and looking increasingly likely

Initial reaction no way!
Admittedly last March I had no idea we’d be here now. But I don’t think it’s helpful to think that at this point.
We need to take one half term at a time!

From what Witty said the other night, Easter.

I've told myself Easter, anything after that il have given up. 3 days in and I'm already struggling.

@Livelovebehappy

If people carry on flouting the rules, as many seem to be doing, then I would definitely say it’s likely to be September.

^ Absolutely this

Surely schools should only reopen when it is safe to do so whenever that may be.

Realistically from Easter they may start to reopen. They will probably go for:

Open to all - no mitigation or further safeguards so bubbles start bursting / community spread / number of school staff contracting it shoots up

Open to a cherrypicked few - soz to the rest of you no rotas allowed

They have such a track record for fuck ups and will probably wait to announce decisions or change them on the day before summer term begins.

I have every confidence the school will get on with whatever Gavin the clown throws at them.

Testing before they go back seems sensible.

I hope not I have two with ASD and both are struggling (we dont have EHCPs in place). My mental health is suffering (a week in, not a great start). I really get why they are shut and fully support it but I will break if this goes on that long