Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Trump thread #109 Election Part 3 and off he goes with a trumpety trump?

966 replies

freddosfrogs · 05/11/2020 10:54

We can but hope!

What will happen in AZ, PA and GA next?

[Title edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

OP posts:
Thread gallery
30
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 05/11/2020 12:46

America truly is a divided country :
www.popvssoda.com/countystats/total-county.html

But isn't that a pretty map!

CaveMum · 05/11/2020 12:50

Just seen this on Twitter. The Independent candidate could turn out to be very important!

Trump thread #109 Election Part 3 and off he goes with a trumpety trump?
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 05/11/2020 12:53

@CaveMum

Just seen this on Twitter. The Independent candidate could turn out to be very important!
Depends whose voters he got, a bit.
Phoenix21 · 05/11/2020 12:53

@nauticant ironically I like the betting odds for the reasons you mention, I just need someone to tell me if the actual numbers are good or bad Blush

chomalungma · 05/11/2020 12:54

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

America truly is a divided country : www.popvssoda.com/countystats/total-county.html

But isn't that a pretty map!

I think the maps at county level are interesting - the best I've seen is a 3d one that shows the relative size of the votes and numbers as a column rising from each county.
CaraDuneRedux · 05/11/2020 12:57

@nauticant

One reason people like to refer to betting odds is that these represent what a bookie or similar has calculated as something they're confident in so they don't lose money. Projections by pundits who have no skin in the game or are pushing a partisan position at no personal cost are clearly more open to wishful thinking.
But it's important to realise that for the same reason (bookies not wanting to lose money) bookies' odds are not probabilities. They don't add to one. They're a combination of bookies'beliefs about the real world (based on the "form book") plus their financial exposure (if loads of punters bet on "Three Legged Brenda" for the 2.30 at haydock park, even if the form book suggests Three Legged Brenda would be more gainfully employed at the local glue factory, the bookies are still going to shorten the odds to protect their financial exposure in the event that Brenda defies the form book this time).

Bookies odds are often a better guide than polling companies, but they can behave in slightly strange ways.

Janegrey333 · 05/11/2020 12:57

I love when people refer to the creature as Trumpy.

anon444877 · 05/11/2020 12:57

You're not alone, several US economists I follow on Twitter are watching the betting odds closely

occa · 05/11/2020 12:58

I had a long conversation with a friend yesterday about the level of support for Trump. Friend works in California in industry where he reckoned 95% of the people he works with were Trump voters.

He had a few points:

For most blue-collar workers, Washington DC may as well be a million miles away. They can't relate in the slightest to either candidate. Virtually none of them went to University, and they think ((and refer to themselves) as not very bright.

Generally, they're proud of being blue collar, and a vote for the Democrats would almost be seen as being a 'class traitor', trying to be something you're not, thinking you're better/smarter than the people you work with. Voting Republican is seen as standing in solidarity with your fellow workers.

This is because 99% of these people do not care one tiny little bit about Trump's character or lies or dodgy dealings. They are the absolute epitome of single issue voters. They care about the economy. That's IT. As they said, 'it's not like they're going to be inviting Trump for dinner'. They do not care what he's like, they don't think any politicians are even slightly interested in them or their views.

Most of Trump's more egregious personal/political decisions don't affect them personally. At least not nearly as much as the day-to-day grind that keeps food on the table. A lot of them are the only earner in their family, so it all falls to them. Covid has made them more, not less likely to vote Republican because they are more worried about their jobs/the economy. The ONLY thing they care about is low taxes and a thriving economy. Remember, there is very, very little in the way of a social safety net in the US. If the economy tanks and you lose you job, nobody will bail you out. You lose your health insurance and quite possibly your house.

So the irony is, they vote Republican, the party of big business who've over the years stripped most worker's rights etc., because they think they're the party who'll keep the economy going and keep them in work. So they will never get the rights they deserve because they're too scared to vote in a candidate who might fight for those rights in case the economy is collateral damage, because of it is they're fucked because they have no rights. So round we go.

It's a neat little trap that allows big business to exploit workers without them even realizing it and keeps blue collar people voting Republican.

occa · 05/11/2020 12:58

Jesus that was long, sorry!

anon444877 · 05/11/2020 13:01

Also, the democrats from Bill Clinton on have been very good for non blue collar democrats, but not so good for their union base. Trump quickly understood who the globalisation losers were that be cooks cynically manipulate with a reimagined past.

anon444877 · 05/11/2020 13:03

Remember too that outside big cities there's no real population density issue for covid in the US - i was very surprised when I heard friends with small kids not angry that they were out of school but genuinely terrified of the kids catching covid.

Even here, working parents on the whole want the kids in school more than they're terrified about covid risks.

It's going to be alright though, hopefully, maybe, argh!

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 05/11/2020 13:03

I got the feeling at the time that Trump's tax cuts were not actually going to add a single dollar to the annual income of ordinary workers, because any gain was taken away from them in a different way. Was that wrong?

Mrsmorton · 05/11/2020 13:07

Shameless placemark

RaptorInaPorkPieHat · 05/11/2020 13:13

Oooh shiny new thread Smile

Here's a little humour from the Eurovision community (which is a little specific if you don't watch it)

Trump thread #109 Election Part 3 and off he goes with a trumpety trump?
occa · 05/11/2020 13:13

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

I got the feeling at the time that Trump's tax cuts were not actually going to add a single dollar to the annual income of ordinary workers, because any gain was taken away from them in a different way. Was that wrong?
But they are convinced that Dems will raise taxes (even though they've said they will only raise taxes on very high earners).
JesusInTheCabbageVan · 05/11/2020 13:15

@occa that's really interesting, thank you!

RedToothBrush · 05/11/2020 13:16

DH thinks (not 100% certain yet) PA is good for Biden and he will get it.

Numbers are continuing to go in Biden's favour.

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 05/11/2020 13:16

Maybe that also explains why so many Latinos votes Trump.

HoldingTight · 05/11/2020 13:16

Very interesting, thank you occa

Just seen this on Twitter: "Trump needs ~59% of remaining count in Maricopa. He’s tracking that in other counties, so do-able, but a stretch for Maricopa (where he has 47% so far).

Biden has to win ~60% in Ga, but tracking at 81% & mainly blue counties left to count.

Pa, Biden needs 61%, tracking at 72%."

chloechloe · 05/11/2020 13:17

@occa

Jesus that was long, sorry!
But very insightful, thank you!
the80sweregreat · 05/11/2020 13:18

Occa, good post. In a way it's the same here with working class Tories. I know a few who love Trump's bluster and ' telling it like it is' but also would rather live here as we have an NHS and a welfare state and thought that Boris Johnson would be ' good for the country ' etc.
My late inlaws voted conservative with nothing to conserve ( council house an old car and a small work place pension) but they just believed in their ' values' and all Labour voters are ' communists'.
I get it , but it still puzzled me as they were so far removed from your usual Tory voter types in the shires ( for example) who do have something to 'conserve. '
I guess it's the same with Republicans in some parts of the US. They Could never vote Democrat despite the fact they know that President Trump isn't really on their side at all. It might be more complex than that , but I do see parallels here. Plus Biden isn't that charismatic either. Neither candidate would appeal to me at all if I had to vote for either of them and Trump's past would put me off completely even though Biden probably has many skeletons too I guess and the threat of tax hikes is enough to put people off too of course. Always the same.

Roussette · 05/11/2020 13:20

occa that was so interesting thank you.

Copperas · 05/11/2020 13:20

Thank you @Occa - that was very illuminating

boatyardblues · 05/11/2020 13:21

Reporting in so I can follow this truly nail biting finale.

Swipe left for the next trending thread