To think lock down will be much longer than four weeks

[JudesBiggestFan]

Looking at the reality of where transmission takes places and what's actually been shut - there's no way this lockdown will be sufficient. At the end of four weeks schools will shut early for Christmas, when deaths reach a frighteningly high level.
Back in March we locked down when there had been 21 deaths only and it still took seven weeks of a full lockdown to reduce numbers to a level where anything was eased off. I know the Government won't want to scare people further at this point, but does anyone else agree?

@Puzzledandpissedoff

*So how do you think retail and hospitality are going to survive if what you say is true, that we will be locked down for the rest of the year possibly until February ?*

Save your breath, Mia - that's the one that's never answered in any logical way, along with the question of where the money's coming from to pay for it all

Borrowing. And tax.

For decades.

But equally whats the alternative? Not locking down and places being unviable and going bust at the cost of the individual instead?

Thats not a solution either.

At the start of the last lock down folks were predicting it would
Not end for years, that even world war three would start. And here we have it again. The same folks predicting it will never end again.

There’s some poor sod getting her arse handed to her on another thread for suggesting she goes and stays at a remote farm house.

It’s like deja vue..😂

If they closed the schools it would be over faster.

Borrowing maybe - but with our national credit rating completely trashed?
And you can only tax people on what they've got, so the very rich will take steps to protect assets and good luck getting much out of folk who've lost everything

Still, never mind - by the time the real bills roll in the current bunch of frauds will be off on the speechmaking/directorships trail at £!!!!!! a throw and it won't be them who have to worry about it

I think the government are seriously deluding themselves if they think people won't meet over Christmas. I also can't see furlough being extended yet again after this.

@Puzzledandpissedoff You are right sadly. They won't want to be around to pick up the pieces and they have watched David Miliband swan off across the Atlantic to a seven figure salary working for a charity of all things - a charity that receives British tax payers' money. They are pretty much all rotten.

There’s some poor sod getting her arse handed to her on another thread for suggesting she goes and stays at a remote farm house

Well Obvs remote island is the only way to go! I hope somebody explained the need for a gold dress.

David Miliband's situation is an interesting case in point, Genevieva , and let's look at Boris, Hancock and the rest

If they chose to say "sod this" and gave it up next week, does anyone imagine the cronies they've so lavishly funded would fail to find a roost for them? Or that they'd be facing losing their homes and income?

I really don't think so ...

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Borrowing maybe - but with our national credit rating completely trashed? And you can only tax people on what they've got, so the very rich will take steps to protect assets and good luck getting much out of folk who've lost everything

Still, never mind - by the time the real bills roll in the current bunch of frauds will be off on the speechmaking/directorships trail at £!!!!!! a throw and it won't be them who have to worry about it

Yep. The grandkids will be paying off the covid bill. The quality of life in the UK has peaked for most people.

If you can buy yourself a visa somewhere else you are probably fine.

@LastGoldenDaysOfSummer

If they closed the schools it would be over faster.

But you couldn't. Look at the cries on MN of how the first lockdown 'devastated children', how their education is 'being ruined' and how they were 'last on the list.

The Government cannot win.

I think they won't have a choice. Teachers are fed up with the disrespect from some of the petty general public (see MN passim), and the utter not giving a damn for their safety from the government and may just think, "Fuck it!" and strike.

And serve the teacher bashers on MN right if they have to look after their own kids.

And serve the teacher bashers on MN right if they have to look after their own kids

I find this type of remark unhelpful and offensive. People want their children to be in school because the children are better off in school (generally speaking, there are exceptions eg those who get bullied and probably loved March to September). And our future depends on a well educated workforce. It also depends on being competitive with other countries, which with few exceptions are keeping their schools open.

Parents are not too lazy to look after their own kids, and such comments clearly come from a place of privilege as most of us need to work to keep a roof over our heads (and to feed our kids).

I find this type of remark unhelpful and offensive

Nowhere near as offensive and unhelpful as I find the constant teacher bashing on MN.

Nowhere in your post have you expressed any concern for the health of teachers and school staff. Why not?

@Bluntness100

At the start of the last lock down folks were predicting it would Not end for years, that even world war three would start. And here we have it again. The same folks predicting it will never end again.

There’s some poor sod getting her arse handed to her on another thread for suggesting she goes and stays at a remote farm house.

It’s like deja vue..😂

One could argue that lockdown began in March & has lasted for 8 months albeit a slight easing in August/Sept but now as we approach winter, we are back in LD again, so 8 months worth & counting.

We had 3 months of nice weather last time, now we will have 7 months of cold & wet... we'll all be inside, schools open and a population sick to death of it all.

Johnson didn't listen to SAGE, so much worse now, he is a fucking clown in a Govt of circus performers.

I feel so worried about January.

I can't imagine that we won't be in some sort of lockdown. At the same time we hit the end of the Brexit transition period. I have no idea what that is going to mean for food/medicine availability, but I can't imagine it's anything good.

Trying not to lose too much sleep over it, because worrying won't change anything, but I'm scared.

@Genevieva but the hospitals say they are getting full, in the Midland they estimated no more intensive care beds ten days from now. It isn’t just about excess deaths, they are trying to prevent the situation which occurred in Italy, China, South America etc where too many people have covid at the same time and the hospitals have to start turning some away. More people are surviving covid thanks to growing expertise etc but those people are still in hospital beds.

When lockdown lifted someone posted ‘The pandemic isn’t over, this just means there is now space for you in ICU’. That’s what it’s about.

And yes there is no chance of this lockdown being done with in early Dec. But this govt does not know how to be honest.

@InvisibleDragon you are absolutely right to worry about the transition period ending, but do remember that it can easily be extended if the various politicians on both sides agree - given the growing scale of the crisis, it seems extremely likely they will extend the transition period. I know Boris says he won’t do that but he also said he would never again do a national lockdown.

I think atleast six weeks, maybe longer ...

Skysblue the brexit transition can no longer be extended we are leaving end of December

This time should be used to get a system in place we were promised back in May

Parliament will be interesting this week though I think this 4 weeks will go through but it will end on the 2nd without Parliamentary review. Backbencher are nearing revolt there is no way this will be just a cabinet led decision

Yes @LastGoldenDaysOfSummer, thank you.

@ Skysblue hospitals fill up at this time of year. Some run out of ITU beds every winter and have to share resources with other hospitals. Admissions for respiratory illnesses are not abnormally high. And the government has had the best part of a year to sort out these Nightingale white elephants, but has failed to do so. Plus a local problem does not justify a national lockdown.

Lockdowns don’t work for viruses and the data being presented is off. They just extend the half life of the pandemic.

Data on so called Covid cases is not Covid cases. It is positive test results for SARS-CoV-2. Covid is the disease not the virus. The test takes mucus from the back of the nose. The nose is the body’s natural filtration system. Mucus captures most microbes like viruses to prevent them from reaching the lungs and causing disease. The sinuses then synthesise nitric oxide which kills viruses and bacteria. A positive test does not equal a Covid case.

Most viral transmissions occur in hospital settings and at present hospitals are testing every patient at least weekly and in many cases daily. Each new positive test result is classed as a new case even though it refers to the same person. Furthermore this test was not developed for asymptomatic mass testing and the government is refusing to release data on the false positive rate.

Covid death data is all cause mortality for people with a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 in the last 28 days. It is not for people confirmed to be suffering from and adversely affected by the respiratory disease Covid-19.

My guess is the national lock down will be 4 weeks, followed by a return to a tier system but leaving some areas still in lock down (renamed tier 4 or 5).

Admissions for respiratory illnesses are not abnormally high.

Why would Boris Johnson choose this strategy if he (and his cabinet) do not genuinely believe hospitals won’t be able to cope? Why would he choose to disagree with so many of his back benchers, and appear to be belatedly following labour policy if he thought there were another option?

I don't know if anybody watched the interview yesterday I didn't but I read it .
What he actually says is that Christmas won't be normal and restrictions will still be in place which is what we know . Boris said the tier system will be back in place . We may all go into tier 3 .
I don't think anyone for a minute thinks that on December the 2nd things will go back to how they were pre covid but places will re open .

No trade for business in December will cripple everyone.
It's a huge spending time, I don't think they want Xmas saved but economic Xmas.
But with millions of dc mixing up millions of households up and down the UK in a cold winter I don't have see what they can do.