To think lock down will be much longer than four weeks

[JudesBiggestFan]

Looking at the reality of where transmission takes places and what's actually been shut - there's no way this lockdown will be sufficient. At the end of four weeks schools will shut early for Christmas, when deaths reach a frighteningly high level.
Back in March we locked down when there had been 21 deaths only and it still took seven weeks of a full lockdown to reduce numbers to a level where anything was eased off. I know the Government won't want to scare people further at this point, but does anyone else agree?

@Mustfly

Looking at the reality of where transmission takes places and what's actually been shut - there's no way this lockdown will be sufficient. At the end of four weeks schools will shut early for Christmas, when deaths reach a frighteningly high level. Back in March we locked down when there had been 21 deaths only and it still took seven weeks of a full lockdown to reduce numbers to a level where anything was eased off. I know the Government won't want to scare people further at this point, but does anyone else agree?

Where do you get only 21 deaths? There were nearly 300 deaths by 22nd March and in the week 23rd to 29th March nearly 1500 more. Two weeks later it was over 6k deaths a week. Btw last week there were similar number of deaths to 23rd to 29th March.

The government said at the start of the first lockdown it would be reviewed in 3 weeks. It was totally obvious it wasn't going to be lifted then, but I was amazed by the number of people who thought everything would be going back to normal after the Easter holidays.

Emmie12345

I'm in the SW too and I see your point but the numbers here, although low compared to other parts of the country, are rising quite fast, in my postcode our numbers have gone from 8 to more than 80 cases per 100k in 4 weeks. We've also had lots of visitors during a fairly wet half term, did people seek more indoor activities because of the weather? It's too early to say what effect that may have on infection rates.

One of the experts at the press conference yesterday said they expect the SW to reach NHS capacity in the next few weeks if we continue on our current trajectory. On the the plus side, our lower population density may help us reduce transmission rates more easily than other areas but even then I think the current restrictions will be extended beyond early December.

I wouldn't be surprised if the restrictions were increased because I'm not convinced the current plan will achieve what is required to ease them.

Australia are currently heading from winter to summer, it’s not a like for like comparison.

Well according to the bbc, Gove is already saying this lockdown may well be longer. Drip feeding this idea to get used to the fact that this will not be a 4 week lockdown?

I predict we are all at home till end Feb
There will be a brief pre Xmas reprieve - too late for the independent shops and cafes that create any vibrancy really. And a do what you like attitude over Xmas
Leading to Schools closing in Jan/Feb.

Fucking disaster

I think it’s hard not to feel resentful of other parts of the country who have had easier restrictions and when the 4 weeks are up will go back to tier 1 presumably. I find it hard knowing that there’ll be people in tier 1 who have broken the rules, whilst I have kept to every rule going and I’ve been under harsher restrictions than them!

Origami. Its a direct comparison surely? They locked down in winter to get their cases right down, had far less flu, and are super strict even now on who they let back into school.

We are about to go into winter. We could do the same. Compare their stats to ours....

@Fizbosshoes

Even when we get a vaccine, they will have to prioritise the order that different groups will get it, and there still probably won't be enough for everyone to get it in the first year. If it takes 3-4 months to give the flu vaccine to roughly 7m people a year, it would take over 2 years to vaccinate

As far as I know there is not a plan to vaccinate everyone? I thought it was like the flu jab that older, or vulnerable people get it, anyone else is able to (depending on availability) if they pay for it. They will start with HCP and the most vulnerable first. Only the most unwell people with covid will end up being hospitalised and many people will have had it quite mildly, or not even known they had it. (I know a certain % have had long covid) so potentially could vaccinate the most in need within a few months.

I get that, but I don't think a lot of people see it like that do they? The people who say "not until there's a vaccine" don't seem to be saying "not until a small minority are vaccinated" - the people talking about the vaccine being the magic key seem to think that everyone will be vaccinated and suddenly everyone's safe.

I'm also assuming that covid will become another seasonal vaccination for those that already get the flu jab, but who knows?

Anyway, I don't think this is a 4 week lockdown either. I think at least 6 weeks, but they'll try and avoid christmas because that's a hard sell!

This post may not age well but I think they will lift it for December and then go back to it in January.

No, I think it will be what was said, four weeks then back to the tier system.

@AngeloMysterioso

Just me and you then! Everyone else seems to have an insatiable appetite for doom mongering. Well, most anyone- appreciate @Bluntness100 and a few others don’t agree with OP.

As I have said before, there will be mass uncompliance if it goes beyond 2nd December. Will be the final nail in the coffin for hospitality and retail as well which rely on the Christmas trade

Honestly some people only happy when they want to think the worse . I don't get those that say it's to prepare yourself for the worst , what for ? Feeling hopeful in a shit situation is the best way to get through this isn't it ? Well for me it is , going round saying things like oh it will go on for months now how do you know ?.
It's already gone on for months but the restrictions have changed time and time again so unless you have a crystal ball then you don't know .

If it takes 3-4 months to give the flu vaccine to roughly 7m people a year, it would take over 2 years to vaccinate the entire country against covid.

It usually takes at least 4 years to develop a vaccine, but because of the amount of resources that have been devoted to finding a vaccine for covid, it's reasonably likely that a vaccine will exist in a year. Obviously the logistics of getting a vaccine to everyone, particularly when there is world wide demand for all the components, will be difficult. However, its also reasonable to assume that more resources would be devoted to the roll out of a vaccine.

Also, the goal would not be making everyone safe, but controlling impact to a manageable level.

@Takemetothebar

So the government don’t want to scare people further, but you do?

Do you feel better, having made more frightened people, more frightened?

Could you at least piss off to the Covid board?

You didn't have to open the thread or comment on it.

Well it all depends on whether people think they are special and decide rules aren't for them doesn't it?

I think it will be extended and quite likely until after Christmas.

Me and DH have already gone into our lock down. We have plenty of food, plenty of dog food, plenty of loo roll so no need to go out.

We have today decided that we are going to spend Christmas just the two of us and have a family get together/Christmas when it is safe to do so.

We can do presents, Christmas songs etc any time we like. It doesn't have to be 25th December does it?

No, @ilovesooty and the OP didn’t have to deliberately start it in the wrong place, and deliberately attempt to frighten people, but here we are.

I suspect we are looking at being locked down until at least the end of February/March, with ordinary flu cases also increasing the likelihood of hospital admissions.

Well it all depends on whether people think they are special and decide rules aren't for them doesn't it?

Of course it will be for more than 4 weeks. I expect there are two possibilities for how it goes

a) it does work and things improve a bit - but then lifting restrictions in early december would mean that things are hairy again by christmas, which we don't want - so we need to leave it as long as possible before lifting for xmas or
B) it doesn't make a big enough difference for there not to be chaos in the NHS and we need to keep going into Dec for the sake of the NHS (christmas becomes the least of our worries).

Either way, I don't see it being lifted in 4 weeks.

So how do you think retail and hospitality are going to survive if what you say is true, that we will be locked down for the rest of the year possibly until February ?

No, lockdown for 4, Christmas over, another lockdown.

So how do you think retail and hospitality are going to survive if what you say is true, that we will be locked down for the rest of the year possibly until February ?

Save your breath, Mia - that's the one that's never answered in any logical way, along with the question of where the money's coming from to pay for it all

My fury is simmering over this. A dear relative of ours died alone in a nursing home in June after being denied visitors for 3 months. She was blind and deaf so being denied physical contact with us cut her off entirely. There have been no excess deaths since June. The NHS coped well throughout the height of the pandemic. I believe that if we were to loosen our rules considerably we would continue to see no excess deaths.