To think lock down will be much longer than four weeks

[JudesBiggestFan]

Looking at the reality of where transmission takes places and what's actually been shut - there's no way this lockdown will be sufficient. At the end of four weeks schools will shut early for Christmas, when deaths reach a frighteningly high level.
Back in March we locked down when there had been 21 deaths only and it still took seven weeks of a full lockdown to reduce numbers to a level where anything was eased off. I know the Government won't want to scare people further at this point, but does anyone else agree?

Seems mad we in the SW are locking down

The only positive about it is that the worse-hit places in the uk won’t flood here and bring more cases down

I just wish they would be straight with people.

Lockdown is utterly pointless when you have Scotland and Wales doing something different. The whole country needs to be on the same page rather than the political point scoring that's currently going on with leaders trying to show that their idea was the best one.

@Radiatornoise

I can’t copy the link so here is a screen shot. Michael Gove says it will last longer. The retail industry is completely screwed.

No he didnt - because he cant say that. The legislation will end on the 2nd December and any extension would have to go through Parliament.

I am not saying it wont be extended (I suspect it probably will need to be) or indeed restrictions are going to be needed until January/February time.

But legally it is different to the March situation because then it just needed to be reviewed. This (as far as I can see) has a start and end date that means that anything further would need to go through Parliament

I think "they" drip feed to stop the populace freaking out.

@pennylane83, its pitiful really to see them squabble and point score.
I am massively ashamed to be British.

If wales stayed out after the 9th, im happy.

Once these shops open up I'm off to do shopping.

Gove said straight out on sky news this morning that the 2nd of december is just a 'review date' and it can be extended if the data doesnt show enough of a drop .... which it wont. We will be here longer than 4 weeks.

Yes of course it will be longer than 4 weeks... I guess early next year at least.

Seems mad we in the SW are locking down

I think the dearth of hospital beds in the SW is a huge issue, and I really hope that isn't put to the test.

OP - I think if we had a proper lockdown, with schools, factories, everything non essential shut, then we might be able to lift restrictions a small amount for a bit from second week in Dec until NY. However, if schools stay open, yes, this will be it until Easter probably.

Yes it will be longer than 4 weeks. It's spreading rapidly through schools in my area...closing everything apart from schools for 4 weeks will
make sod all difference to the r rate.

it won't end in 4 weeks. unless they shut universities.

It might depend on the new fast tests .they could make a huge difference. If they are affordable then employers could use them with temp tests on a regular basis .

I'm in T3 currently and I'd fully expect to be in T3 again after the four weeks, if not a T4 of some sort. Hopefully this will slow the rate of the rise elsewhere in the country, that's my reading of the point of all of this.

I think university cases might fall because the bars etc are closed . But they can’t risk them taking it home without a test can they ?

@paintmywholehousecobweb

Lockdown will be for months. With a couple of breaks.

This is fairly typical of a kind of "Look at me and how I am facing hard truths which naive and gullible others aren't" mentality which ruined the site last time and will this time too. Posters like these take great glee in coming along with a big psychological needle to puncture what they see as the balloon of others' over optimism. How long until the competitiveness ratchets up and someone posts " People don't seriously think we will be out of this by 2023, do they?" Then there is the litany of nouns and dates. Vaccine Spring 2021, Lockdown 2 January, Rollout Summer to vulnerable, Lockdown 733 Summer 2045 etc. The truth is that NOBODY not even the Mumsnet Coronaqueens has any idea what the infection rates and hence restrictions will do. What is very clear is there is a nasty undercurrent of people looking to squash any desire to live freely or do anything enjoyable in others, including even the thought of being with friends and visiting cafés etc again. They are the lockdown police of the mind, and I hold them in contempt.

Please no

Seems mad we in the SW are locking down

We have lower rates here but also less resources. The SW is predicted to be the first to run out of hospital beds within 3-4 weeks.

That is interesting then with Michael Gove because that isnt the impression Boris Johnson gave.

It will be interesting to see what the SI says when it gets passed on Thursday (and I suspect that will be the point that is argued in Parliament actually) as to the actual wording of the end.

I think Michael Gove very much wants it to be a review date and easy to put on an extension but I think there are very much parts of the party that dont and feel that it should end and an extension be debated in Parliament

Wales Regs have a clear end date of the 8th. For the English set not to would be a bold move

I'm hoping I'm not included in that, inuet, I'd dearly love to meet my friends for a coffee or glass of wine again soon but for my own mental state have come to peace with this taking a bit longer and pacing ourselves over the winter (we're in a real hotspot here). I see no reason lower levels can't be maintained elsewhere in the country though with a bit of intervention now.

There is a scientific logic to 4 weeks.
1 week to incubate & get confirmed test.
1 week to progress to very ill or get over worst of it.
1 week in hospital to either die or get over worst of it.
1 week to confirm a downward trend after the expected peak (at 3 weeks post lockdown).

If your counting deaths which is the least ambiguous indicator.
12 April was last peak, ~3 weeks after 23 March.
The back of the epicurve is shallower than the front, though, so the decline will be much slower than the rise. 1:3 ratio in slopes each side (back:front).

Wales is interesting place to watch.

No idea but retail and hospitality need Xmas trade. I’m thinking the aim is to take a bit of heat out of the transmission of the virus so they can relax things a bit for Xmas. Who knows after that.

@PurpleDaisies

I don’t think people or the Tory backbenchers will tolerate it. After four weeks we’ll have the tier system again (I hope).

I hope so. I wonder if Boris will get a Tory majority for his lockdown vote this week. If not, Boris will be yesterday's news.

The Welsh circuit breaker lockdown is supposed to end next week, so unless that is extended I think its unlikely that the England lockdown will be extended.

In theory the level of deaths should be lower because of better care.

I hope the fast tests make a difference, but they will only make a difference if the government gets to grips with the fact that they it needs to enforce isolation strictly. That is how countries like Taiwan and New Zealand got control of the virus. There is no point asking people to test if they just carry on as normal.

@ allinuet
I'm loving Mumsnet Coronaqueens