To think lock down will be much longer than four weeks

[JudesBiggestFan]

Looking at the reality of where transmission takes places and what's actually been shut - there's no way this lockdown will be sufficient. At the end of four weeks schools will shut early for Christmas, when deaths reach a frighteningly high level.
Back in March we locked down when there had been 21 deaths only and it still took seven weeks of a full lockdown to reduce numbers to a level where anything was eased off. I know the Government won't want to scare people further at this point, but does anyone else agree?

Maybe by 2 weeks but I don’t think they will into Christmas as people won’t follow it.

I’m hoping that we’ll be released back onto a tiered system after 4 weeks. I’m in West Cornwall where we have very few cases - we are at the bottom of every chart! Many people here are annoyed at the national lockdown. We feel very sympathetic for those affected so badly in the north, but we are simply not in the same situation.

The hope/expectation is that

• transmission will reduce when there is a sharp reduction in the numbers of contacts a person has, and they are seeing if the effects taking it down to work/school/medical/care will be sufficient
• it takes a typical 5-7 days for a new infection to become symptomatic (range 2-14)
• it takes about a week between onset of symptoms and hospitalisation for those who are developing the more severe form
• for the worst cases, it then takes about a further week from admission to death (though this can vary quite a lot)

So 4 weeks of lockdown should show if there was a significant reduction in transmissions in the first 1-2 weeks of that lockdown, and if on a downward trend it'll continue downward for a couple of weeks after change to restrictions (because an increase will not show until 2 weeks after)

My bet would be that we get promising results, but still need to do 'a little more' and there will be a 2 week extension with additional restrictions for university students ahead of the end of term. Then a loosening around 16-18 Dec to 'save' Christmas

With slightly different regs in force in Scotland to make sure Hogmanay is covered.

Rates will then start creeping up about 14 days after loosening, and depending on how fast the rise, it'll be somewhere between mid Jan and mid Feb for lockdown 3

Argh.

Anyone who believes that this will only be for four weeks is a fool. Remember back in March, when it was ‘only’ for three weeks?

Lockdowns don’t work. A vaccine won’t be a magic bullet. The government had all of Spring and a lot of Summer to plan for this Winter and squandered all of that time and the country’s goodwill.

My job isn’t secure; we’ve already lost a lot of staff. I miss my friend and miss my family. I really can’t do this again.

Yes, it’ll be 4 weeks and then they’ll realise how fat the rates are increasing in schools and will have to shut them then, rather than just doing it properly now.

There must be a scientific reason 4 weeks was chosen

It's not scientific, it's to pacify people and con them into the inking it won't be that bad. Then along comes Boris to tell us how it's working but we need to do it for a bit longer...and again.....and again.

It's psychology, not science

Agreed.

But they can't say that as want morale high. Shame they didn't do it beginning of October :(

Lockdowns do not work, it's shown that already. If they try and stretch it longer people will start reacting. People will see their families again understandably

Yes it will be. They missed their chance in September/October, lockdown would be far more effective if done earlier and coinciding with school holidays.

I think we will be permitted three super spreader days over Christmas and that will mean an even longer lockdown. I think it will last for all of winter and then the same cycle will begin again because BJ is incapable of forming a strategy or making decisions until it's too late.

So many of my friends and family have started the 'stay the fuck at home' talk saying it's only for four weeks. One of the most vocal being a friend whose husband is a bathroom fitter who tested positive for covid the day after finishing a week's job in the home of an elderly couple. Yet as far as I know, tradespeople are still allowed in and out of homes. He certainly has no intention of losing money.
See your mom once a week for coffee...potential killer. In and out of numerous homes each week...totally fine as they're strangers. Britons...no travel abroad. People from abroad...come one, come all, we'll just trust you to quarantine! The futility of this lockdown depresses me...so many routes of transmission still open. If people complied 100 per cent it would make no difference at all.

I think that non-food shops may open after four weeks, but the other restrictions will probably remain.

It should have been from late September as recommended by SAGE. I also think that making all university teaching virtual (apart from nursing and medical schools) and doing so next term should be done, which has minimal economic impact.

Yes of course it will be longer. They have done this because things are so out of control and the predictions so dire that they have to get the public on their side with thinking another lock down is the best way forward. I think they were only able to convince people by promoting the idea that if we lock down now we may be able to salvage Christmas to some extent but I think most people are realistic that this is going to go on a lot longer than 4 weeks.
Christmas is already ruined for many - no jobs, no money and their homes at risk.

Yes. 2 weeks will show little change then -10% per week. We’re at 50k cases and they’ll want to get to Frances states goal of circa 5k cases a day so that’s clearly not possible in 4 weeks.

I’d imagine they’ll likely move Senior Schools on line late Nov to speed things up. It just doesn’t add up otherwise.

@nosswith

I think that non-food shops may open after four weeks, but the other restrictions will probably remain.

It should have been from late September as recommended by SAGE. I also think that making all university teaching virtual (apart from nursing and medical schools) and doing so next term should be done, which has minimal economic impact.

My ds is in his third year at Uni and has not had one face to face lecture this year at all. He's currently holed up self isolating as covid rampages through his shared house.

Were today 1st October, maybe 4 weeks would have sufficed. But would the public have complied? Or would we have had quasi anarchy in places?

@nicerbeing

There must be a scientific reason 4 weeks was chosen

It's not scientific, it's to pacify people and con them into the inking it won't be that bad. Then along comes Boris to tell us how it's working but we need to do it for a bit longer...and again.....and again.

It's psychology, not science

That's me told. But whatever the reason it's 4 weeks, possibly longer and that's it really. Everyone has their opinion.

I think this will be it until Easter now.

Depends a lot on if people stick to the rules. If they don’t, it’s likely to be extended further.

@Squiffany

I think this will be it until Easter now.

That's a joke, right?

@Mustfly

So many of my friends and family have started the 'stay the fuck at home' talk saying it's only for four weeks. One of the most vocal being a friend whose husband is a bathroom fitter who tested positive for covid the day after finishing a week's job in the home of an elderly couple. Yet as far as I know, tradespeople are still allowed in and out of homes. He certainly has no intention of losing money. See your mom once a week for coffee...potential killer. In and out of numerous homes each week...totally fine as they're strangers. Britons...no travel abroad. People from abroad...come one, come all, we'll just trust you to quarantine! The futility of this lockdown depresses me...so many routes of transmission still open. If people complied 100 per cent it would make no difference at all.

if people complied 100% it would make no difference at all

Of course it would. Problem is, so many people won’t comply so this will just drag on and on.

I think we need to stop calling it a lockdown - this isn't a lockdown (I am not convinced we have ever actually had a lockdown we were not even confined to our houses the first time).

Many places have had constant fairly strict restrictions from March - none of us have lived without some form of restriction

We are entering a stage of very strict restrictions for 4 weeks, far stricter than they have been since June/July time. At the end of those 4 weeks depending on where we are some may be lifted or some maybe added.

Just watching Keir Starmer though and he is right - we need to use this 4 weeks to get our act together and a proper track and trace system, decent quick testing and a well thought through and stuck to self isolating/quarantine process

China/South Korea etc are better not because of their lockdowns but because of the systems in place that they had afterwards.

If Michael Gove's suggestion is that we simply see where we are at the end of this 4 weeks rather than using them to do what we should have done months ago

But this is going to end in 4 weeks - it was clearly stated yesterday the SI that will be passed on Thursday has it ending on the 2nd December and therefore anything further will be need to be passed through Parliament again. March's SI was different - that I think was needed to be reviewed every 3 weeks but didnt end.

I can’t copy the link so here is a screen shot. Michael Gove says it will last longer. The retail industry is completely screwed.

The situation now is much worse than it was in March, for infections and it took 12 weeks to bring the rate down to an acceptable-ish number.

Why would anyone think that 4 weeks of less restrictions will work?

In March they didnt say it was a 3 week lockdown, they said it would be reviewed after 3 weeks.
4 weeks is probably more do with extending e listing furlough for 4 weeks (and the cost of that)rather than being based on a scientific model

This won’t end until they try and force the vaccines on us. It will be a 6 month lockdown. It’s all there for people to research