To think that Trump is not going to get re-elected?

[Anon778833]

There are still a few fringe types who think he’s going to get a landslide victory.

Personally I find this unlikely.

Any MNers from across the pond have a view more informed than myself?

For a number of reasons, I think Trump is likely to win. One of the biggest mistakes made by Hilary and her swanky Hollywood cronies was to be very out of touch with the feelings of a huge sway of ordinary US citizen. Rightly or wrongly they felt patronised by her and a bunch of pampered privileged people who have little clue about ordinary people. For whatever reason, they see Trump as one of them. He’s dumbed down the whole political landscape to such a degree that millions feel finally understood. I think over the last 20 years, the standard of education and the average level of general political intelligence has dropped massively and a huge part of the US population is unwilling to put any effort into reading up or fact-checking. Trump offers them the kind of sound bites they can easily swallow. Although it probably didn’t personally affect a lot of people directly, the months of rioting, looting, and street fighting, with Democrat leaders portrayed as losing control will have done a lot of political damage to the Democrats. It’s easy to exploit basic fears and present Trump as the saviour who will return law and order, even if it happened under his presidency. I reckon a lot of people were in private dissatisfied and angry with how the Democratic mayors of major cities handled the BLM demonstrations. Biden, like so many Democrat candidates, stands accused of taking black voters for granted and underestimated a growing dissatisfaction among more affluent black people and a rising number of black conservatives. There was quite a bit of dismay and ridicule that he failed to properly campaign black voters and opted to allow Cardi B to interview him. This was condemned as patronising and Biden was accused of thinking of Black voters as stupid. The number of Latin Americans eligible to vote has risen above the number of black voters. The former is said to have a higher turnout to vote and especially among Cubans, they lean towards Conservative candidates. Many have felt betrayed over the handling over the BLM rioting, with Latin business having been targeted. There is a lot of satirical and sneering reporting about dumb Trump supporters, who are portrayed as reprobates and degenerates. But for every single idiotic Redneck, there are a few hundred silent voters who personally don’t particularly like Trump as a person but who would still rather vote for him. Financially, a lot of businesses have actually benefitted under Trump. They probably do not show up in the polls.

I wasn't hopeful, I thought it would be very close though I'd not have predicted the outcome.

But the high turnout makes me think that Trump might lose with some margin.

As far as Trumps appeal, I think most comes down to disaffection. If you look at Trump supporting states, they are basically poor, and the Biden supporting ones are well-off. It used to be the poorer states would vote Democrat - but they have now very much become the party of the big banks. Eventually it was bound to be the case that those voters would try something different and see if they got a better deal, or at the least to give the finger to the Democrats.

Obama was enough of an outsider to overcome that but Hilary wore it big-time, not least for additionally making those people feel like she despised them. Biden - I don't think his insider status will help. He seems to have been chosen in part because people thought he would appeal more to African-Americans, but I wonder - I saw some polling recently that said Trump support among male African-Americans was actually rising!

And I agree the BLM stuff probably helped Trump. Covid however did not.

[quote PathThreeTwoOne]@NonCisWoman

My understanding of it, limited as it may be, is that it’s claimed that Hunter Biden left three laptops at a small computer repair business and abandoned them. One was recovered and on it a vast array of emails showing Hunter Biden and Joe Biden profiteering from business deals in China in exchange for access to Biden who was as you know vice president. Whether is was actually three or just one, I am not sure but that is what I initially read. Afterwards Hunters former business partner, who was named in the emails, has come forward to claim that these emails and the content within are correct and has given access to all of his own emails and data to back it up. Joe Biden has denied it all and claims it to be Russian propaganda. Apparently Hunters solicitor has also been in touch with the owner of the repair shop to ask for the laptops back, before or after the story was made public I am not sure. Aside from the above, a few pictures allegedly from the laptop have been circulating showing Hunter to of been taking drugs and a republican senator I believe has alluded to there seemingly being child abuse uncovered on the laptop also and is said that the FBI are investigating. Nothing has been released regarding this officially. Now, a lot of the above has come from more right wing sources and most left wing media aren’t really reporting on it due to it so far being unverified so please don’t take it as fact and I would question its truth if nothing more comes from it before the election. The only thing I will say that I disagree with is the fact that it is not being reported on in the same way it would be if it was regarding Trump.[/quote]
A few more things to put this in perspective.

The press would cover it if any actual verifiable facts were to be found but the whole story stinks of a desperate misinformation attempt with the goal of being the 'Hillary's emails' story of the 2020 election that swings it for Trump.

Fox News rejected the story when offered it, because it was too full of holes.

When it was written up for the New York Post (a right wing tabloid not to be confused with the much more respectable New York Times), the writers refused to allow their names to be used in the bylines because the story was so full of holes.

The computer shop owner says that the laptop came from Hunter Biden but that because he's legally blind he was unable to actually see who dropped off the laptop.

The FBI have had the laptop since December 2019 - this is not a new story.

No emails have been turned over to the press to verify their authenticity, and in particular nothing showing headers has been released to prove they are real. What emails people have seen have not implicated Joe Biden in any way, and if anything show his lack of involvement.

Most of what we know about all of this, including the claim that Hunter's attorney asked for the laptop back, has come from Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani has been desperate to prove something on Hunter Biden, to the extent that he works closely with Ukrainians, including one who is a known active Russian agent taking part in an influence operation to affect the 2020 election.

The playbook is classic Russian disinformation, particular the implications about child pornography.

Unfortunately for Trump, it's just not really working this time around. There's nothing to implicated Joe Biden in anything, and Hunter Biden is not running for president.

And unfortunately for Giuliani, the Borat film is now available for all to watch.

@Goosefoot

As far as Trumps appeal, I think most comes down to disaffection. If you look at Trump supporting states, they are basically poor, and the Biden supporting ones are well-off. It used to be the poorer states would vote Democrat - but they have now very much become the party of the big banks. Eventually it was bound to be the case that those voters would try something different and see if they got a better deal, or at the least to give the finger to the Democrats.

Obama was enough of an outsider to overcome that but Hilary wore it big-time, not least for additionally making those people feel like she despised them. Biden - I don't think his insider status will help. He seems to have been chosen in part because people thought he would appeal more to African-Americans, but I wonder - I saw some polling recently that said Trump support among male African-Americans was actually rising!

I'm confused as to who you think chose Biden to appeal more to African-Americans?

He won the primary, in which millions of registered Democrats voted. He received nearly 20 million votes. I very much doubt they all voted for him because they thought he'd appear to African-Americans, although it was probably a small factor.

Electability of the chosen candidate was a concern for people, and Biden was perceived as being more appealing to black voters than someone like Sanders - this idea was one of the arguments Biden's campaign made against Sander's candidacy, it's not at all hard to find examples of that.

Some also believed he was more likely to appeal to disenfranchised Republican voters.
And then, if it was true he appealed more to black voters, many black Democrat voters themselves would have voted for him directly.

@HoldMyLobster

You aren’t wrong in some of the things that you state, however, as for it holding no weight, I disagree to an extent. You state that Fox News rejected the story which was true initially but they have since reported on it in which they have states that multiple federal law enforcement officials and two government officials have now confirmed the authenticity of the documents. Make of that what you want as Fox News is rather right leaning but as you clearly stated, even they didn’t want to report on it originally but now feel confident enough to. If it turned out to be true, it does in fact possibly implicit Biden if the emails circulating are in fact the real ones. Add to that some of the comments Biden has made previously I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out to be correct, just as I wouldn’t be surprised if it was found to be false as is the case with many smears from both sides.

I do want to make clear though that I have not said that it is true, nor that the media are necessarily wrong for not reporting on it, only that they should have the same principles regarding reporting when it comes to both sides.

The press would cover it if any actual verifiable facts were to be found but the whole story stinks of a desperate misinformation attempt with the goal of being the 'Hillary's emails' story of the 2020 election that swings it for Trump

I see it differently. They don’t want a repeat of 2016 so are reluctant to cover this emerging story. They really have no problem covering bullshit stories, they do it all the time. So to me, they are being overly cautious to protect Biden.

When it was written up for the New York Post (a right wing tabloid not to be confused with the much more respectable New York Times), the writers refused to allow their names to be used in the bylines because the story was so full of holes

The New York Post is not like the National Enquirer. They are legit, whether you like it or not.

The computer shop owner says that the laptop came from Hunter Biden but that because he's legally blind he was unable to actually see who dropped off the laptop

The laptop is almost certainly Hunter’s. Where else would all those photos of him smoking crack (and a sex tape) have come from? But the largest piece of evidence is that the Biden camp has not denied their authenticity.

No emails have been turned over to the press to verify their authenticity, and in particular nothing showing headers has been released to prove they are real. What emails people have seen have not implicated Joe Biden in any way, and if anything show his lack of involvement

Text messages screenshotted by Tony Bobulinski (Hunter’s business partner in the China scheme) indicate that Joe Biden was the ‘Big Guy’ referenced in the emails and Bobulinski re-asserted this in a press conference. Maybe the press should do their job and look into what the Big Guy was getting? Emails seem to indicate some sort of cut of the equity for Chinese ventures they were negotiating.

Would be nice if the press looked into this ....

The playbook is classic Russian disinformation, particular the implications about child pornography

DNI (Director of National Intelligence) John Ratcliffe has confirmed that this is NOT part of a Russian disinformation scheme.

But the press refusal to cover this story has led to spurious elements like the child porn claim, which is very likely pure conspiracy theory by partisan elements.

Oh, and I forgot this handy piece of evidence:

thefederalist.com/2020/10/21/secret-service-travel-records-confirm-hunter-biden-trips-detailed-in-emails/

Secret Service records corroborate the foreign trips described in the Hunter Biden emails.

Are any organisations investigating the activities of the Trump children. Can’t remember if I read something about their alleged criminal activities?

I 100% think he will win, and I'm never right.

Trump will win. The way the world is heading has a feeling of inevitability about it for me. It's almost like we collectively have to hit rock bottom before we can begin to heal and learn what individuals and societies need to thrive. Trump, Covid, Brexit, Climate Change - between them, this is the trajectory. I don't say this in a defeatist spirit but rather that this is a necessary process before we can build something better.

I’m expecting him to win tbh as sad as that is. I don’t think Biden provides a good enough opposition.

Are any organisations investigating the activities of the Trump children. Can’t remember if I read something about their alleged criminal activities?

I can’t say that any official body like the FBI is investigating this, but there are plenty of articles in legitimate media that have gone into this subject, particularly with regards to Ivanka and her Chinese business links.

Just read an article where one of the contributors noted Americans vote like when they were teenagers in high school - they voted for the least competent person. It’s now a case of whether voters who voted Trump to fuck things up have sobered up in the pandemic and projected 400k lost lives or whether they’ll feel obliged to vote for him again as a fuck you to everyone.

I want an end to his evil reign, and his encouragement of narcissism, denialism, and sociopathy.

Isn't this an essential character trait to being a President 🤣

Clinton Kennedy Nixon Bush

give us another class act like Jimmy Carter 🌺

@CHIRIBAYA

Trump will win. The way the world is heading has a feeling of inevitability about it for me. It's almost like we collectively have to hit rock bottom before we can begin to heal and learn what individuals and societies need to thrive. Trump, Covid, Brexit, Climate Change - between them, this is the trajectory. I don't say this in a defeatist spirit but rather that this is a necessary process before we can build something better.

Sadly I think you are right although I hope you not.

@BlueThistles

I want an end to his evil reign, and his encouragement of narcissism, denialism, and sociopathy.

Isn't this an essential character trait to being a President 🤣

Clinton Kennedy Nixon Bush

give us another class act like Jimmy Carter 🌺

Well, I don't think Obama was evil. I don't think JFK was evil. I don't think it is an essential character trait to be a president, at all.

I don't know a great deal about them, but from what I do know Roosevelt, Washington, and Lincoln do not strike me as evil men either.

@BlueThistles

I want an end to his evil reign, and his encouragement of narcissism, denialism, and sociopathy.

Isn't this an essential character trait to being a President 🤣

Clinton Kennedy Nixon Bush

give us another class act like Jimmy Carter 🌺

Are you forgetting the Iran Hostage Crisis and his handling of the Oil Crisis which began a lengthy and severe economic recession?

I've got a horrible feeling Trump will win. I just find it so hard to believe that out of such a massive population, Trump and Biden are the best America can come up with

all Krampusasbabysitter spot on.

The celebrities endorsement is so patronising. They are so detached from the ordinary voter. It is disgusting! Specially with so much failure in the democrat state of California where the middle classes are becoming homeless due to high taxes. I know people in this situation.

Also, people still remembers the disaster of Obamacare and the premiums they had to pay. Biden was the VP.

Trump getting in again is about as 2020 as you can get

@CBt944....Lincoln was not abolitionist and only freed the slaves in the Confederacy while slaves in the Union were left in bandage, Washington out right owned slaves which makes him evil.Theodore Roosevelt and his decision to dishonorable discharge 167 members of the 25th infantry battalion who were coincidently all black. Franklin Roosevelt and his very wise idea to force 120,000 Japanese-American US Citizens into internment camps. Locking people into cages and taking away their money and property due to their race is pretty evil. Kennedy started the US involvement t in Vietnam,plotted an illegal invasion of a sovereign nation and planned to assinate their governmental head. We will just ignore the heavy Mob involvement and multiple affairs that occurred within in his Oval office..Doesn't sound like such a peach to me

@doctorhamster

I've got a horrible feeling Trump will win. I just find it so hard to believe that out of such a massive population, Trump and Biden are the best America can come up with

Scary isn't it. Q