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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think that Trump is not going to get re-elected?

923 replies

Anon778833 · 23/10/2020 20:27

There are still a few fringe types who think he’s going to get a landslide victory.

Personally I find this unlikely.

Any MNers from across the pond have a view more informed than myself?

OP posts:
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15
HelloToMyKitty · 29/10/2020 16:11

Okay, this is annoying me so I have to say something here:

Why does it not make sense that each person have one vote? The rural, low population states already have disproportionate power in the Senate and I am not arguing against taking that away, but the people should have equal say in the president

Try to think of it in terms of the EU. Would countries like Portugal and Ireland disenfranchise themselves for the ‘greater good?’

Absolutely not! It would be the end for the federal system, as your voice would cease to matter. Suddenly the presidential campaign would only care about three States: Texas, California and New York.

The EC also tends to disenfranchise black and hispanic voters because they tend to live in more urban areas

More complicated than you might think: amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/503744/

rather recognize that those rural areas are statistically poorer and less educated - which is a huge problem (and obviously not the fault of the people who live there). There are obviously incredibly smart people there, but many are unfortunately victim to totally inept school systems. Look at recent political breakdown of people with college degrees

This really bothers me. The vote of a college-educated person is worth just as much as a vote from a non-college educated person.

And I’m not convinced that the white, college-educated elite who usually spout this crap have the best interests of the working class in mind (but they always think they do 🙄).

MerchantOfVenom · 29/10/2020 16:29

Pennsylvanians overwhelmingly vote in-person, that’s just the local culture.

Something is ‘the culture’, until it’s not.

And/or a pandemic arrives...

MissConductUS · 29/10/2020 16:33

The Economist Asks podcast today has a brilliant interview with John Bolton, a long time fixture in the American national security community who served in the Trump administration then left a wrote a critical book about that Trump tried to suppress publication of.

If you have an interest in this thread it's really worth a listen.

HelloToMyKitty · 29/10/2020 16:51

The Economist Asks podcast today has a brilliant interview with John Bolton, a long time fixture in the American national security community who served in the Trump administration

I am curious so may check it out but John Bolton is literally the worst person. He’s part of the reason the US is mired in Iraq and if he’d had his way, we’d be in Iran too 🤮 and maybe even North Korea.

The man is not to be trusted

Nancydrawn · 29/10/2020 16:57

@ListeningQuietly

Nancydrawn But if they start counting the absentees at 7am that gives 13 hours of counting time before the on the day stuff has to be dealt with and remember that a LOT of folks have vote in person but early ....
State officials are estimating that it might take until Friday to finish. Absentee ballots take a lot of time to process, because they have to be carefully verified and cross-checked. And ballots will still be trickling in after election day, as long they're postmarked by election day and received in the mail within three days.

To quote from the article I posted, though with the caveat that this is a plausible scenario only:

"Right now, our forecast estimates that about 6.8 million votes will be cast in Pennsylvania, on average, and the average popular vote result gives Biden about a 5-point edge over Trump, 52 percent to 47 percent. If that panned out, that means Biden would win about 3.6 million votes to Trump’s 3.2 million (with a few additional votes for other candidates). And if the vote count followed what we saw in the primary, less than half of Biden’s votes would be in by 3 a.m. on election night, whereas around 70 percent of Trump’s would be reported.

That means we could be looking at a situation where Trump has about a 16-point lead, 58 percent to 42 percent, based on approximately 60 percent of the total expected vote. But over the course of the next few days — again, assuming the same pattern we observed in the primary — Biden would win two-thirds of the remaining votes, which would precipitate a 21-point shift in the overall margin from 3 a.m. on election night to the final result, as the chart below shows."

And frankly, I don't believe that Donald Trump is going to take such a shift, even a shift that is totally expected and entirely legitimate, well. In fact, I think he's going to contest it. And I think he's going to encourage his supporters to call the election illegitimate.

MissConductUS · 29/10/2020 17:00

I am curious so may check it out but John Bolton is literally the worst person.

I'm not a huge fan either but he has Trump nailed and has some interesting things to say about how the election may play out.

Viviennemary · 29/10/2020 17:05

Last time it was a foregone conclusion Hillary C would win. I read a few articles the day before that said it was almost impossible for Trump to win going off the polls and other statistical stuff. HHC had her celebration party booked. So I think it's fair to say it's far from a certain Biden victory.

Parker231 · 29/10/2020 17:11

This time Biden has a bigger lead than Clinton so hopefully this will hold ............

MerchantOfVenom · 29/10/2020 17:13

The polls have changed a lot since 2016, as has been mentioned many, many times already on this thread.

Plus, ‘her emails’ 🙄 had dropped, which favoured Trump hugely. It was clear Hillary was in trouble at this point.

HoldMyLobster · 29/10/2020 17:13

Just asked DD's boyfriend about his ballot in Pennsylvania. Its status says arrived and 'vote recorded'. I assume this means his signature has been verified, so all that remains is to put the ballot paper through the machine on the day?

We count absentee votes the same in Maine - verify them beforehand, then put them through the machine on the day. Will be interested to see how it goes.

HoldMyLobster · 29/10/2020 17:14

@Viviennemary

Last time it was a foregone conclusion Hillary C would win. I read a few articles the day before that said it was almost impossible for Trump to win going off the polls and other statistical stuff. HHC had her celebration party booked. So I think it's fair to say it's far from a certain Biden victory.
It wasn't foregone conclusion at all. And politicians always have their celebration party booked whether they think they're going to win or lose.
Viviennemary · 29/10/2020 17:18

Everyone except Corbyn I bet. He won't be celebrating today that's for sure.

Nancydrawn · 29/10/2020 17:18

@HoldMyLobster

Just asked DD's boyfriend about his ballot in Pennsylvania. Its status says arrived and 'vote recorded'. I assume this means his signature has been verified, so all that remains is to put the ballot paper through the machine on the day?

We count absentee votes the same in Maine - verify them beforehand, then put them through the machine on the day. Will be interested to see how it goes.

I'm pretty sure this just means that it was recorded as received. They're not actually allowed to open the ballots until the morning of election day in PA.

(I can't believe I know this. This election is driving me insane.)

Goosefoot · 29/10/2020 17:18

Why does it not make sense that each person have one vote? The rural, low population states already have disproportionate power in the Senate and I am not arguing against taking that away, but the people should have equal say in the president. The EC also tends to disenfranchise black and hispanic voters because they tend to live in more urban areas. And your argument that the unpopulated states won't think a direct democracy very democratic, I'm not quite sure what to respond to that. It seems far more democratic to me than our current republic structure that gives them more of a voice than others. I don't think of them as "uneducated boobs," but rather recognize that those rural areas are statistically poorer and less educated - which is a huge problem (and obviously not the fault of the people who live there). There are obviously incredibly smart people there, but many are unfortunately victim to totally inept school systems. Look at recent political breakdown of people with college degrees.

I'm not convinced that college degrees make people smarter or more open minded - only better able to justify their prejudices.

The senate being regionally balanced is to the point, but it's part of the legislative branch, and it balances out the congress which is based on population. So in the legislative branch the way they balance the population and the regions is by having two houses. One which reflects each of those. In the judicial branch that balance is captured in other ways.

Within the executive branch, unless you are somehow going to have two presidents which is probably unworkable, there has to be another way to try and balance the weight population against making sure each region also has some balanced input into the decision. Otherwise the executive branch is always going to chosen by the most populated parts of the country and can afford to ignore or piss off the less populated parts. In a system that's supposed to work on the balance of powers that's a serious problem, it would be permanently biased toward the interests of the populated metropolitan regions.

The point of the electoral college is to try and split that difference, so it reflects both population but also regional interests.

Why would any smaller state agree to a system where they have no effective influence in voting within one of the three branches? It's like asking Luxembourg to agree not to have any influence in EU decision making because, after all, they are tiny and most people live elsewhere. They'd be crazy and within their rights, not to mention obligated to their citizens, to have nothing to do with it.

But you are absolutely right in that last paragraph when you say that the election of Trump didn't come out of nowhere. People want to feel seen and understood, and they don't by the typically cold and coiffed politician. It is ironic that they got Trump as their anti-politician politician, for he could not care less about the average man or woman, but here we are.

Finally, I am genuinely curious about your last few sentences. What do you think Biden should do, if not go back to business? If you mean that he needs to reach out and represent the whole of America and not just those who voted for him, he has affirmed that standpoint numerous times (unlike Trump). If not, what do you mean by that?

Does he mean that, however? Do you really see him making the necessary changes, or that he would be allowed to? Is any of that reflected in his platform? It's pretty straight up Democratic same-old.

If the party takes Biden's election to mean they can continue to carry on as they have been the last 50 years, people will make the Trump choice again as soon as one appears. And the next one might be a lot less benign.

NRatched · 29/10/2020 17:26

I think hes unlikely to. He was very likely IMO before the covid thing, but his handling has been..not good.

Mind, given many of his voters voted as a 'protest', they very well might do so again.

HoldMyLobster · 29/10/2020 17:29

I'm pretty sure this just means that it was recorded as received. They're not actually allowed to open the ballots until the morning of election day in PA.

(I can't believe I know this. This election is driving me insane.)

Ah, yes. I guess 'Vote recorded' says that so that he can't now turn up and try to vote again in person.

When I look mine up here, it actually has a 'Ballot Accepted/Rejected' column whereas his just has a 'Vote recorded' column.

bp300 · 29/10/2020 17:54

@Parker231

Trump is displaying the signs of dementia - if you listen to his rants, he is struggling to complete a sentence, keeps repeating the same words, unsteady on stairs

Have been following the polls. After one of his rallies, Trump’s support in that geographical area goes down.

Trump deliberately repeats the same words so that people remember the point he is trying to get a across. This is proven to be a very effective tactic and he has used it to manipulate the media and the electorate.
Nancydrawn · 29/10/2020 17:55

*Ah, yes. I guess 'Vote recorded' says that so that he can't now turn up and try to vote again in person.

When I look mine up here, it actually has a 'Ballot Accepted/Rejected' column whereas his just has a 'Vote recorded' column.*

Yes you think they would just make it "vote received." It is far from the most absurd thing at the moment, I suppose, but it's still absurd.

Parker231 · 29/10/2020 18:12

bp300 - doesn’t seem to be working. He just comes across as not being able to say a full sentence. Nothing he says has any substance. It’s one toddler type rant after another.

MerchantOfVenom · 29/10/2020 20:08

bp300 - doesn’t seem to be working. He just comes across as not being able to say a full sentence. Nothing he says has any substance. It’s one toddler type rant after another.

The problem is, this doesn’t make the slightest bit of difference to his base.

The positive is, there aren’t enough of the base.

MerchantOfVenom · 29/10/2020 20:45

For anyone who wants a bit of hope in terms of Trump losing, here’s Jon Katz.

He’s an old white guy - retired and living in upstate NY. I’ve been following him on Trump since the early days of the pandemic.

In spite of being an old white guy, I feel like he gets it, as to why so many people - women especially - are so scared of Trump.

From today’s blog post Why 2020 is nothing like 2016 -

One of the most chilling and important things about the Trump Era to me is the degree to which he frightens and angers women.

In him, they recognize and see things many men, especially white men, can’t or won’t see: the predator, the abuser, the misogynist, the grossly sexist and arrogant white male.

This is the type of man most women know all too well. They don’t want him around every day.

...and...

It seems the real issue in the 2020 campaign isn’t the pandemic or the economy; it’s the President’s unlikeability. Many Americans now – especially women – dislike him intensely and want him to go away.

...and...

He is too narcissistic to see it yet, but he has taken the floundering women’s revolution and filled it with fire; he brought it roaring back to life and given it focus and healed divisions because, at the moment, women are the thing he most fears, and the thing that will almost certainly defeat him next Tuesday.

I keep shaking my head in wonder as Trump, at event after event, begs for the support of women he has treated so shabbily and cruelly all of his life. Look in the mirror, Dude.

www.bedlamfarm.com/?s=Why+2020+is+nothing+like+2016

HoldMyLobster · 29/10/2020 21:10

[quote MerchantOfVenom]For anyone who wants a bit of hope in terms of Trump losing, here’s Jon Katz.

He’s an old white guy - retired and living in upstate NY. I’ve been following him on Trump since the early days of the pandemic.

In spite of being an old white guy, I feel like he gets it, as to why so many people - women especially - are so scared of Trump.

From today’s blog post Why 2020 is nothing like 2016 -

One of the most chilling and important things about the Trump Era to me is the degree to which he frightens and angers women.

In him, they recognize and see things many men, especially white men, can’t or won’t see: the predator, the abuser, the misogynist, the grossly sexist and arrogant white male.

This is the type of man most women know all too well. They don’t want him around every day.

...and...

It seems the real issue in the 2020 campaign isn’t the pandemic or the economy; it’s the President’s unlikeability. Many Americans now – especially women – dislike him intensely and want him to go away.

...and...

He is too narcissistic to see it yet, but he has taken the floundering women’s revolution and filled it with fire; he brought it roaring back to life and given it focus and healed divisions because, at the moment, women are the thing he most fears, and the thing that will almost certainly defeat him next Tuesday.

I keep shaking my head in wonder as Trump, at event after event, begs for the support of women he has treated so shabbily and cruelly all of his life. Look in the mirror, Dude.

www.bedlamfarm.com/?s=Why+2020+is+nothing+like+2016[/quote]
I nodded all the way through that.

After the last election, I was invited to meetings with groups of women that had spontaneously organised with the intention of minimising Trump's damage and making sure he didn't get back in. Four years ago! They're very much still in action four years later.

MerchantOfVenom · 29/10/2020 21:18

Great to hear!

I’m not in the US (nor in the UK), and everyone just feels so powerless outside the US to do anything or effect change.

It feels like we’re witnessing the failure of American democracy as much as anything else, and if America fails, who or what steps into the vacuum?

ListeningQuietly · 29/10/2020 22:23

Under Trump the USA has paralysed

  • the WTO
  • the WHO
  • the UN
  • the Paris Accord
thus he has to go for the sake of the planet
Nancydrawn · 29/10/2020 22:26

You're entirely right--the gender gap between men and women supporting Trump is huge. And this is across normal crosstabs like race and education. I think it's like 20 points across the board on a national level.

And between white women and white men, it can be even more.* In the latest Quinnipiac poll (I told you--I'm geeking out with the numbers!), white men were +21 for Trump; white women were +13 for Biden. That's almost a 35 point differential.

(*The gap is there for non-white voters as wellBlack men, for example, support Trump more than Black womenbut it's not nearly as pronounced as his support is far lower in communities of color writ large.)

Women tend to hate him. Women tend to vote.

(I am still worried.)