To think that Trump is not going to get re-elected?

[Anon778833]

There are still a few fringe types who think he’s going to get a landslide victory.

Personally I find this unlikely.

Any MNers from across the pond have a view more informed than myself?

@UsedUpUsername

No one is saying that European countries have handled the pandemic better. It's Trump's attitude that gets to me. He's holding rallies with no social distancing and attendees aren't even wearing masks. He also shows no empathy towards the victims and their families.

He also undermined the lockdowns imposed by various states, because he wanted to open up the economy. And he encouraged his supporters to protest against the lockdowns.

It's the lack of leadership that's the issue.

Where was the social distancing and masks at the rallies? In the circumstances the rallies shouldn’t have taken place by any party.

@blueangel19

all Blueberries0112 I saw and heard Trump at 2nd the debate saying they are trying for a vaccine and have several possibilities so do not lie that he is anti science. People lying like this do not help Biden you know.

And of course that time he suggested we inject disinfectant...

Totes science based.

I am also a bit disheartened by some of the comments disparaging Americans as a whole. Trust me, I am just as disillusioned by what is going on as you are. There are, however, so many who oppose everything that Trump stands for. In fact, the majority does. The electoral college was designed in a manner that gives rural areas undue influence in national politics (a person from Wyoming has 3.6 times the amount of electoral power as a person from California). The issue is that those rural areas are the ones that resist change for the longest. Education also tends to be significantly worse in those areas, but that's a topic for another day.

I'm not sure a union where two states - New York and California - get to choose the president between them would seem very democratic to the people living in all the other states. Even if all those other people are, as you seem to think, uneducated boobs.

Unfortunately, those who stand against Trump are in many cases, in their own way, as much of a problem themselves. The election of Trump didn't come out of nowhere, it was a response to a deep disenfranchisement with the political system. I don't think Trump being re-elected or not is the biggest worry. The biggest worry is that Biden will be elected and the Democratic party will think it is back to business as usual. And there has been zero indication that they realise this.

@user1471565182

Goosefoot Look at Hegelian dialectics for that 'world spirit'. Its fairly basic political science.

Oh, gee, I had no idea. Thanks for that, I'd not have brought it up had I realised.

I have real respect for Hegel and I think there is a lot of insight in looking at history as a kind of dialectic, but never really understood the type of faith that believes the World Spirit is directing us materially, and inevitably, to some more enlightened social endpoint. It seems an entirely unfounded utopianism.

It's kind of revealing, though, isn't it, when workers are being given shit for leaving off voting for the Democrats, and instead turning to vote for a (supposedly) conservative president who - oh dear - is opposing the WTO.

How does that not make the heads of anyone who sees themselves as being on the left explode? The bleeding WTO??!!

No one is saying that European countries have handled the pandemic better

Actually people used to say that all the time. Well, less so now.

It's Trump's attitude that gets to me. He's holding rallies with no social distancing and attendees aren't even wearing masks

As long as they are legally allowed to do so, I don’t see the problem. If you are at risk, you don’t go (Herman Cain, for one, maybe should have stayed home)

He also shows no empathy towards the victims and their families

You are entitled to your opinion here.

He also undermined the lockdowns imposed by various states, because he wanted to open up the economy

But guess what? He can’t do shit about it because the governors decide (also, people within the State have every right to protest lockdown. Or is protesting the sole right of BLM?)

It's the lack of leadership that's the issue

I don’t disagree. I wish he had been more forthright in repudiating State lockdowns. Trump totally undermined Gov. Kemp in Georgia, who was one of the earliest governors to lift the lockdown. I was disappointed that Trump wouldn’t back him up.

(Obviously I’m one of those who remain unconvinced that lockdowns are necessary)

And of course that time he suggested we inject disinfectant...

Totes science based.

Trump has a massive case of the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias that leads people to overestimate their level of understanding of something. Think of the bloke who spends an hour reading about climate change on wikipedia then starts arguments with people who have PhD's in atmospheric chemistry on twitter.

www.verywellmind.com/an-overview-of-the-dunning-kruger-effect-4160740

Most people are smart enough to know when they are not an expert on something.

Most people are smart enough to know when they are not an expert on something. Tell that to AOC

Good on Nevada for banning large gathering. At least someone understands the risks

I was on a call with our US team yesterday and the general feeling is that he will get back in but it won’t be an immediate result.
Most of them didn’t like him and weren’t happy about it

My DSil lives in Colorado. They are dreading Trump getting in again. Their friends feel the same.

Hoppinggreen Why they think that? Most people are relying on polls and they are good for Biden?

@blueangel19

Hoppinggreen Why they think that? Most people are relying on polls and they are good for Biden?

It's a reflecting of what happened in 2016. Polls were closer but had HRC up over Trump. Some of the polls were wrong, though usually within margins of error. People are very, very nervous. (I am people.)

His path is pretty narrow. Biden is not going to get Florida at this point, so everything hinges on Pennsylvania. If he doesn’t get it, he’s finished (you’ll note both candidates put most of their time into Pennsylvania with the occasional dip into the ‘blue wall’)

The polls are showing Biden is holding a narrow lead in Florida but overall his lead is increasing and the lead is much greater than Clinton had at this time four years ago so less margin for error.

@blueangel19

all Blueberries0112 I saw and heard Trump at 2nd the debate saying they are trying for a vaccine and have several possibilities so do not lie that he is anti science. People lying like this do not help Biden you know.

On Covid: "[Biden will] listen to the scientists. If I listened to the scientists, we'd have a country in a massive depression instead of - we're like a rocket ship." --Donald Trump, 10/19/2020

On climate change: "“I don’t think science knows, actually.” --Donald Trump, 9/14/2020

Again, on climate change:
Lesley Stahl:” Yeah, but what about the scientists who say [climate change] is worse than ever?”

President Donald Trump: “You'd have to show me the scientists because they have a very big political agenda, Lesley.”

Lesley Stahl: “I can't bring them in.”

President Donald Trump: “Look, scientists also have a political agenda.”
--60 Minutes interview, 10/14/2018

On doctors reporting Covid:
"If somebody's terminally ill with cancer and they have Covid, we report them. And you know doctors get more money and hospitals get more money. Think of this incentive."
--Donald Trump, 10/27/20
[Fact check: 62% of doctors have actually seen a pay cut this year.]

I've still got all the hope in the world that Biden pulls this off....the alternative is too awful to think about. Hugs to those who are nervous.....I am too and I have got everything crossed for a Biden victory. What are the polls like in Florida and Pennysylvania at the moment? I know that Biden has a huge chance of winning if he can bag Pennysylvania Michigan and Wisconsin. Florida would be an amazing coup if he can pull it off but I don't know what the poll margins are like there

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/michigan/

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/

What really scares me about PA is the timing of vote counting. In PA, they're not allowed to start counting absentee ballots until election day itself. That means that on election day, they're going to concentrate on in-person voting only, with absentee ballots counted over the next few days.

That matters, because in-person voting is going to lean Republican and absentee-voting is going to lean Democratic. So, on election day, the returns are going to say Trump and then shift to Biden.

In a normal presidency, this wouldn't be a big deal. But with Trump making a lot of noise about people "stealing the election," I'm very very nervous that this will get crazy. And maybe even violent.

(This does a good job of explaining it: fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvanias-vote-count-could-change-after-election-night/)

@Goosefoot

I am also a bit disheartened by some of the comments disparaging Americans as a whole. Trust me, I am just as disillusioned by what is going on as you are. There are, however, so many who oppose everything that Trump stands for. In fact, the majority does. The electoral college was designed in a manner that gives rural areas undue influence in national politics (a person from Wyoming has 3.6 times the amount of electoral power as a person from California). The issue is that those rural areas are the ones that resist change for the longest. Education also tends to be significantly worse in those areas, but that's a topic for another day.

I'm not sure a union where two states - New York and California - get to choose the president between them would seem very democratic to the people living in all the other states. Even if all those other people are, as you seem to think, uneducated boobs.

Unfortunately, those who stand against Trump are in many cases, in their own way, as much of a problem themselves. The election of Trump didn't come out of nowhere, it was a response to a deep disenfranchisement with the political system. I don't think Trump being re-elected or not is the biggest worry. The biggest worry is that Biden will be elected and the Democratic party will think it is back to business as usual. And there has been zero indication that they realise this.

Are you American?

Why does it not make sense that each person have one vote? The rural, low population states already have disproportionate power in the Senate and I am not arguing against taking that away, but the people should have equal say in the president. The EC also tends to disenfranchise black and hispanic voters because they tend to live in more urban areas. And your argument that the unpopulated states won't think a direct democracy very democratic, I'm not quite sure what to respond to that. It seems far more democratic to me than our current republic structure that gives them more of a voice than others. I don't think of them as "uneducated boobs," but rather recognize that those rural areas are statistically poorer and less educated - which is a huge problem (and obviously not the fault of the people who live there). There are obviously incredibly smart people there, but many are unfortunately victim to totally inept school systems. Look at recent political breakdown of people with college degrees.

But you are absolutely right in that last paragraph when you say that the election of Trump didn't come out of nowhere. People want to feel seen and understood, and they don't by the typically cold and coiffed politician. It is ironic that they got Trump as their anti-politician politician, for he could not care less about the average man or woman, but here we are.

Finally, I am genuinely curious about your last few sentences. What do you think Biden should do, if not go back to business? If you mean that he needs to reach out and represent the whole of America and not just those who voted for him, he has affirmed that standpoint numerous times (unlike Trump). If not, what do you mean by that?

Pennsylvanians overwhelmingly vote in-person, that’s just the local culture. So that’s why they probably count absentee on the same day.

@Nancydrawn

You are absolutely right on PA. That is where I'm originally from and family still lives, and it's terrifying. The North Carolina ruling in the Supreme Court yesterday, though, was great news and bodes well for fair counting in PA.

charlotte I totally agree re the rulings. I don't have any hopes for this court in the longer term! (The Kavanaugh-Vermont thing was so embarrassing for him--I deeply pity the poor clerk who did that research/wrote that sentence.) But it was great news for this moment.

HelloToMyKitty not this year they don't. 2 million main-in ballots have already been returned in PA, which is a third of the total vote in 2016.

Nancydrawn
But if they start counting the absentees at 7am
that gives 13 hours of counting time
before the on the day stuff has to be dealt with
and remember that a LOT of folks have vote in person but early ....