To think that Trump is not going to get re-elected?

[Anon778833]

There are still a few fringe types who think he’s going to get a landslide victory.

Personally I find this unlikely.

Any MNers from across the pond have a view more informed than myself?

I'm quite interested in this and might watch the goings on when it's happening. I've no idea what the outcome will be I just wonder what Trump's reaction will be if he loses. He won't go quietly I know that but I do wonder what exactly he will do and if he even knows himself or if he is really that sure of himself it's something he won't even consider??!

the FBI had the laptop for a year showing the abuse of an underage family member,

I've seen this mentioned by a few people but not seen any corroborating evidence. It would explain why the shop owner turned it over to the FBI, presumably possession of that kind of material (regardless of whether you procured it or made it) is illegal in the US. I wonder if he also made a copy of that? The conduct of the FBI has been questionable in a number of incidents during the Trump administration, I'm sure they would prefer Biden to win and avoid the consequences of further scrutiny.

@FOJN

the FBI had the laptop for a year showing the abuse of an underage family member,

I've seen this mentioned by a few people but not seen any corroborating evidence. It would explain why the shop owner turned it over to the FBI, presumably possession of that kind of material (regardless of whether you procured it or made it) is illegal in the US. I wonder if he also made a copy of that? The conduct of the FBI has been questionable in a number of incidents during the Trump administration, I'm sure they would prefer Biden to win and avoid the consequences of further scrutiny.

Delaware is a state that places a duty to report any child abuse to the authorities. When the computer shop owner saw what was on the laptop (and Hunter failed to collect them)him and his father contacted the authorities to report. The laptops were taken to the shop on the 12th April 2019. The shop owner made copies and gave them to friends in case something happened to him. abc6onyourside.com/news/nation-world/timeline-allegations-and-evidence-surrounding-hunter-bidens-business-dealings

Anyone actually interested to find out what facts we have about the laptop, and ways to think through the issues it raises, might find this useful - it's a fairly thoughtful analysis of whether or not the laptop is 'real'.

www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/10/24/hunter-biden-laptop-disinformation/
Insisting that the Hunter Biden laptop is fake is a trap. So is insisting that it’s real.
(Lead in to the story... The lesson of 2016 is to be even more careful with potential disinformation in 2020.)

It doesn't pander to conspiracy theories nor does it defend the Bidens.

If the Russians hadn't intervened so intensely in 2016, then people might be more likely to believe the laptop story in 2020.

But they did, so here we are.

Hunter Biden is not the candidate.
Hunter Biden was in the car crash that killed his mother and sister.
Hunter Biden watched his brother dying.
Hunter Biden is NOT planning to stand in 2024

he may be a wazzock
but he is NOT the story

@ListeningQuietly

Hunter Biden is not the candidate. Hunter Biden was in the car crash that killed his mother and sister. Hunter Biden watched his brother dying. Hunter Biden is NOT planning to stand in 2024

he may be a wazzock
but he is NOT the story

Yes this is a big factor in voting - Hunter Biden isn't up for election, and people already know he's a drug-addled guy with a record of poor decision making.

Meanwhile Joe Biden is seen as a guy who's shown no signs of wanting or needing to be pulled into dodgy business dealings in his long history in the government.

And everyone is struggling to conclusively produce actual evidence that connects the dots.

Meanwhile after 2016 we know that Russians want to throw disinformation into the election.

Here's what was dumb. The guy in the computer shop should have given the computer hard drive copy to several newspapers at once - WaPo, Fox News and NYT at the minimum.

NOT to Guiliani, who has the worst record of believability. How stupid can you get?

If there was any real story here, they blew it at that point.

And as Guiliani has problems tucking his shirt in .....

(thanks Borat)

Trump is popular and he will win, perhaps not by a huge margin but I feel he will

Trump seems to have got so much worse over the last four years. He’s poor at reading a script - Obama was so fluent. When Trump speaks without a script, it just becomes a rant - he never says what’s he’s actually done or is going to do - just goes on about how great he is. He doesn’t seem to have any policies or plans. Covid is out of control in some areas and getting worse, high unemployment figures, environmental crisis, huge debt and a failing economy.

Depends what the Russians want to happen

People mention the polls for Hillary in 2016 but if you compare them to Biden's they look more favourably and so less likely for there to be a swing. And places like Arizona weren't going for Hilary but now they seem to be polling in Biden's favour. If you look at traditionally Republican states like Georgia and Texas while they are still likely to go to Trump it's not a massive win. Republicans lead with just 4 points in Texas and in Georgia, it's a razor-thin lead.

So things do look more hopeful but if politics has taught me anything over the past 5+ years it's to expect the worse and you won't be disappointed (as much).

Also - I probably mentioned this already - but if the polls in 2020 are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden still wins easily.

They'd have to be significantly more wrong than they were last time.

For that to happen, there has to be some really big news between now and Nov 3rd, bearing in mind the huge quantities of people who have already voted.

He will 100% win. Sadly.

For that to happen, there has to be some really big news between now and Nov 3rd, bearing in mind the huge quantities of people who have already voted.
Indeed a key difference with 2016

• HUGE numbers voting early
• significant turnout by younger voters
• Biden is a candidate who does not annoy Black and Hispanic voters as much as Hillary did (partly due to his brown VP candidate)

I'm also looking at it from the perspective of having seen this shake out at a state level already.

We had a Trump-like governor, and the Republicans controlled the State House and Senate.

The population ended up so pissed off with them that the Democrats retook the State House and Senate, and a Democratic governor Janet Mills easily won against the Republican candidate - who was a businessman running on his 'great at business' credentials.

Janet Mills had been in government for many years, her roles including State Attorney General - the same role that Kamala Harris had in California.

It now looks likely that our Senator Susan Collins will be voted out in favor of a Democrat, a large part of that in response to her being forced to respond to Trump's actions and failing to convince the electorate that she is the centrist she claimed to be.

Our state btw is listed as having among the lowest Covid infections in the country, and the least damaged economy - mostly owing to the actions of its female governor.

The data here
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
particularly "early votes as % of 2016 total"
show that life is not the same as it was 4 years ago

PS every time I see your username Holdmylobster
I have happy memories of wearing a bib at Chauncey Creek

I feel reassured (slightly) by reading some of the posts from those in the US who know what is really happening. Crossing fingers and toes that Trump is on his way out next week!

Yesterday morning’s ABC News/Washington Post survey of Wisconsin showed Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. This is supposed to be one of the most competitive state races in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

And this is not an easy poll to disregard. ABC News/Washington Post adheres to what’s considered the gold-standard methodology (meaning they use live phone interviewers, call mobile phones as well as landlines and participate in the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative. Biden’s chances of winning the state have reached a new high as a result — 93 in 100.”

And from 538’s latest polling figures, Trump wins 11 in 100 outcomes. Biden wins 89 of 100 outcomes, the best position for Biden so far.

Every poll taken so far shows that coronavirus is the dominant campaign issue in just about every state in the country.

That is not good for Trump, who keeps insisting – even in states with skyrocketing infection rates where most of his rallies are – that the virus is just about over.

Several respected Republican pollsters have told reporters that his is the worst political campaign in modern political history.

At this point in the race, Biden’s polling numbers are well about Hillary Clinton’s at this point in the 2016 election. By now, her numbers were plummeting and it was clear she was in trouble.

Biden is holding steady.

Trump is often delusional about his prospects. Since he pulled off a miracle in 2016, he and his supporters are convinced they can do it again.

Instead, it’s them who are in for the shock this time, especially as they go by the Trump signs in their neighbourhood, their social media bubbles, Fox and Breitbart.

The Trump campaign tried a repeat of the last-minute / Oct surprise Hillary emails nothing-burger with Hunter Biden’s laptop - and it spectacularly didn’t come off.

Let’s see what they try this weekend - but remember. If they had ANYTHING with legs, they’d have wheeled it out well before now, when too much early voting has already taken place. Anything they do wheel out, will be false, but they will be counting on that not being revealed until after the election.

That’s how desperate Trump, the GOP and his campaign is right now.

• At this point in the race, Biden’s polling numbers are well ABOVE Hillary Clinton’s at this point in the 2016 election.

@MimiDaisy11

People mention the polls for Hillary in 2016 but if you compare them to Biden's they look more favourably and so less likely for there to be a swing. And places like Arizona weren't going for Hilary but now they seem to be polling in Biden's favour. If you look at traditionally Republican states like Georgia and Texas while they are still likely to go to Trump it's not a massive win. Republicans lead with just 4 points in Texas and in Georgia, it's a razor-thin lead.

So things do look more hopeful but if politics has taught me anything over the past 5+ years it's to expect the worse and you won't be disappointed (as much).

Biden is losing the hispanic voters quickly. How he is imagining that is beyond me but je is losing them to a person who has built a wall and imprisoned them. Go figure

Crazy thinking Texas could be democrat but it looks like it will be in the next few years

In fact all these Conservative parties need to change or die out because demographics are against them. Theres something to be said for dialectic materialism.

*dialectical

Merchant really hope you're right!