To think that Trump is not going to get re-elected?

[Anon778833]

There are still a few fringe types who think he’s going to get a landslide victory.

Personally I find this unlikely.

Any MNers from across the pond have a view more informed than myself?

Second term president always have a higher chance of winning.

There are people who don’t follow politics and vote for familiar faces and Trump is a familiar face. It’s why my local representative win the election every freaking year. He made sure everyone knew who he is and how friendly he is

@Goosefoot

As far as Trumps appeal, I think most comes down to disaffection. If you look at Trump supporting states, they are basically poor, and the Biden supporting ones are well-off. It used to be the poorer states would vote Democrat - but they have now very much become the party of the big banks. Eventually it was bound to be the case that those voters would try something different and see if they got a better deal, or at the least to give the finger to the Democrats.

Obama was enough of an outsider to overcome that but Hilary wore it big-time, not least for additionally making those people feel like she despised them. Biden - I don't think his insider status will help. He seems to have been chosen in part because people thought he would appeal more to African-Americans, but I wonder - I saw some polling recently that said Trump support among male African-Americans was actually rising!

That’s basically why people voted for Trump. Not because they cared for his policies. They did it to hurt people they didn’t like. They don’t care how much it hurts them, they just like seeing liberals wail and gnash their teeth.

I’m surprised by this thread.

Biden is more likely likely to win, at ~87 times out of 100, compared with Trump at ~12 times out of 100.

This is according to 538 (fivethirtyeight.com/) which simulates the election 10s of 1000s of times and takes the average.

Yes, I know. Hillary. 2016. But the polls have come a long way since then. Even 2018 was much more accurate. 538 is a respected site, and yes, it takes into account the Electoral College.

Also, a Trump landslide? Why do people think this?

He lost by 3 million-odd votes in 2016. In 2018, the Democrats took the House.

And since then we’ve seen a profoundly mishandled pandemic, 100s of 1000s of American lives lost, a tanking economy, millions unemployed, civil unrest, a total loss of respect for the US on the world stage, yada, yada, yada. Only a Trump cultist could think he’s going to win by a landslide. He’s been on a downward trajectory, even since he became ‘President’. Mainly because he’s corrupt and incompetent.

Early voter turn-out is huge, and early voter turn-out from people who were too young to vote in 2016 - in crucial states (e.g. Florida, NC, Michigan) - is massive. We’re talking 250K in 2020, compared with 44K in 2016 (FL). It’s 204K in 2020 v 25K in 2016 (NC) and 145K in 2020 v 7K in 2016 (Michigan).

Lastly, Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.

But, you know ... what do I know?

Let’s be honest here, there isn’t a chance that Trump will get re elected .

And another thing. There will be a load of older Republicans watching Amy Coney Barrett get pushed through by the Senate before the election.

They won’t bother risking their health to queue to vote, and will assume postal votes are corrupt (because Donald told them they are). There’s no impetus for them to vote since ACB is a done deal.

I suspect if Biden wins, he'll stand down for a second term and let Harris go for it

A one-term president isn’t exactly unheard of.

Bush Senior, most recently.

Merchant of Venom I totally agree and another major factor is people like Joe, lots of people didn't like Hilary. In 2016 Black voters in key areas didn't turn out for Hilary, like they did for Obama, for example. Obama was just more popular across all demographics. But that's definitely a factor this time, despite Biden's age he's very likeable and a known quantity.

Obama is also out there campaigning in the swing states, getting out the vote in crucial areas. Trump has a core group of voters and he hasn't expanded his base, quite the opposite, he's alienated people. Obama appealed to a wide range of people and was willing to go after every vote, he didn't assume people wouldn't vote for him. He went to very white rural areas asking for people's support. My 74 yr old white FIL voted for Obama twice before voting for Trump.

Trump doesn't take any risks and has alienated some of his key demographics, such as those over 65. Political commentators are saying he made a mistake framing Biden as senile, because a lot of older voters felt insulted as well as already not willing to trust Trump with the pandemic.(Trump also looks delusional being only 4 years younger than Biden)

Then Suburban Women are deserting him too.

@Proudboomer yup. I hate Obama. Murdering sociopath like all the rest of them.

Jimmy Carter was one term in an economic downturn and then the hostage crisis.

Nobody talks about the fact trump increased drone attacks by 70 % and troop numbers by 30%.

And betrayed the Kurds in the most despicable way possible.

Does anyone think that KH might help win some democrat votes?

She did terribly in the primaries and her campaign imploded. So no. Also, Tulsi practically murdered her onstage 😂

Surely there was a better candidate than Biden... in all of America

I keep saying this, but the primary had several strong candidates. Whose fault is it that the Dem voting base went for Biden?

No one to blame but themselves.

This is why young voters don't get their issues prioritized because they make a lot of noise on Twitter and then don't vote in the Primaries. The "Bernie Bros" didn't make it to the Polls. Black voters swung it for Biden. Its reminds me of the SNL sketch when white liberals are shocked at the Trump win but black libs aren't. They say the "USA is racist and misogynistic who knew?". So I think they were realists. They knew who would get the support nationally.

This one:

amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/26/politics/election-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-pandemic/index.html

Hopefully this is a wake up call to any one still considering voting for Trump.

As for scandals under Trump: Russians have been killing American troops, which under any other President would have ended his/her Presidency. The story was just ignored by the right wing in the USA. Instead, Fox and Breitbart are obsessing over Hunter Biden's laptop. Nobody cares. How they can ignore Covid and the effects of unemployment and a terrible economy and expect Americans to care about a laptop that isn't even owned by a candidate 🙄

Trump's hardcore voters won't be abandoning him for anything. Trump understood his crowd when he said he could shoot someone dead on 5th Avenue and they would still support him. They won't see this because they would never watch CNN, its Facebook, Fox, OANN, Breitbart, TalkRadio and QAnon.

Russians have been killing American troops, which under any other President would have ended his/her Presidency

Well, for one it wasn’t found to be true:

www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1240020

Unfortunately not as many people read the follow-ups months later 😓

I don't have a clue what the outcome will be. It's hard to predict. I hope he doesn't win. I do think that if he loses he won't go quietly.

As for the way Chris Pratt is being treated for not getting involved in politics is crazy. Thank god his friends are expressing their support for him.

its pretty widely known about at high intelligence levels (CIA especially), and is russias response to ukraine military aid (which trump only released after trying to blackmail ukraine for dirt on the bidens which is yet another sacking/assassination offense. Do people really think the Taliban are STILL using 80s ammunition as well?

That says nothing at all about it 'not being true'

Given Mumsnetters' firm assumptions that we would 'remain' in the EU post Brexit referendum, then the same again at our last general election, the certainty Corbyn's Labour would get in, I'd say go with the opposite of the general Mumsnetters stance .

Two months after top Pentagon officials vowed to get to the bottom of whether the Russian government bribed the Taliban to kill American service members, the commander of troops in the region says a detailed review of all available intelligence has not been able to corroborate the existence of such a program

Seems pretty conclusive to me.

Also, after that hearing, they were able to review the CIA files on it and still found nothing to support it.