People not understanding what no deal actually means?

[flashbac]

Do you understand what it means? For food prices, crime enforcement, things that affect you?
Think we can just trade with the rest of the world come January? Easy as that? Do WTO rules ring a bell? Pound crashing?
Or do you think sunlit uplands await you?

If you want to form fact based opinions, mumsnet is the very last place you should be looking. You have no idea of the intellectual capability or professional knowledge base of any of the people posting. Just skimming through, it is clear that people's responses are (understandably) emotional.

People who have been working on this for years do not post on mumsnet or any other social media because they are bound by normal workplace confidentiality.
The most helpful thing is that if people are able to recognise they are forming ill-informed views so should tread carefully.
Same true of Covid.

I am not an expert by a long way,

No shit.

And remember we have farms here, we can and produce our own food. Even on a personal level I've got (for example) 40+ swedes in the garden more than I'll eat this winter I'll swap with friends family who've got a glut of something else.

Britain hasn’t produced enough food to feed itself since the eighteenth century.

We import 6% of the world's pasta. It will probably double in price, at least.

Hope you all like swede.

@raddledoldmisanthropist

I'd ask whether people realise the effect EU CAP policy

Yes. The CAP is much more workable than it was. African countries produce lots of our food we can't grow well (e.g. mange tout) but I agree they face big barriers on food Europe already produces.

That's a political choice (one with environmental benefits). The UK may change policy but we won't be scrapping farm subsidies so that won't change.

The thing with people saying that we can trade with other countries instead (e.g. Africa for food or the owner of Weatherspoons suggesting we buy Australian Brandy instead of French) is that it is hardly very good for our (meagre) attempts to reduce climate emissions. I purposely try to avoid veg flown in from Africa for this reason.

[quote OchonAgusOchonO]**@LemonTT* - There was no famine in 1919.*

The last main famine in Ireland was in 1879 so many, many people in 1919 would remember it.

Prior to the uprising most Irish People weren’t nationalists even knowing the colonial legacy.

How then do you explain the results of the 1910 election? A majority supported home rule and saw it as a route to independence.[/quote]
Home rule was not independence. Please stop speaking for all. You are not we.

Brilliant post @MagpieSong. You laid out concerns (worries!) and great sadnesses I have too with all of this.
"I screamed on the street, took my ds to protests, tried to teach him why this is happening and why it’s a shame. We didn’t get properly listened to, but we haven’t given up. Hopefully our children’s generations can change this as we move forward, but it’ll be a big fight and with less benefits than befell our generations."

Me too. And at least we tried. I hope they can change this all.

The worry for me is loss of social memory. For example, generations before ours grew up with things like free further education, grants for studying, lots of local night schools across the country where, for very low fees, anyone could study new skills.
Yes, that does exist to some extent online, but all of those in-person facilities have been cut. Children today have no idea about the youth centres that were everywhere for their grandparents.

After decades of cuts, and then another decade of austerity, people seem to forget what local services can provide, and to approve of cuts to benefits, of a life spent struggling. It just feels like we may start forgetting what freedom of movement and to work and study abroad can mean. It makes me really sad for my children.

You won’t know if the meat you buy is UK or not.

Is this true wherever you buy it? I mean - I get that supermarket pre-packaged meat will apparently not be allowed to be labelled with the country of origin. But for example will your local butcher or farm shop still be able to sell locally-sourced meat and tell you it's British/ locally-sourced?

Fuck them. They'll blame it on Covid 19. They'll blame it on the EU. Hell, judging by last night, they'll probably blame it on Andy Burnham.
Fuck them all .

I imagine a huge number of people will turn vegetarian or vegan to avoid unlabelled meat.

And what about the unlabelled fruit and veg? Vastly more pesticides and chemicals are used on US fruit and veg, many, many times the amount permitted in the EU, some of which are known carcinogens.

And when / if you have developed cancer, where and how will you get your chemotherapy medication, if you get it at all? We’re not self sufficient in that either.

In practice we already have agreement on the intelligence sharing and air traffic along with most of the detailed stuff so the big problems are trade and customs. Two main effects:

I thought that the intelligence sharing hadn't been confirmed yet? I'm guessing that under the auspices of Interpol it will continue to work somehow but not as well as currently. The good news is that if you get a parking fine in Amsterdam it will be less easy for the Dutch government to get the money from you (although you may discover that if you re-enter the country in your car in future you get held up at the border.)

Milk prices seem likely to go up because farmers currently don't get enough money for milk, per liter, compared to production costs. IIRC that is down to EU regulations and subsidies. When the subsidies vanish and aren't replaced by the UK government (IIRC they have confirmed that they will not be replaced one for one) the price of milk will rise to its correct market price. Which will be higher than it is now. It remains to be seen if the UK has enough capacity to meet demand.

Meat: yes, you will be able to source (probably also online) from farms. You may have to already register as a customer if you want to ensure you get your supply (as some farms i have heard of are doing) and you may also find that the price of your beef/chicken/lamb increases to its correct market level. Which may not be much higher than currently if you are buying directly from a farm, more so if you currently buy at Aldi.

fruit & Veg: same. There may be less variety to begin with and it may make us all more aware of seasonal produce which is no bad thing. I wonder what the market is for swedes though. (the good news for flat dwellers is that tomatoes grow well on windowsills all year round if you're careful). Things like pineapples, mangoes and bananas will depend on how they are shipped from the country of origin. If they are containered into Europe chances are they dock in places like Rotterdam, Hamburg and Trieste and are then transported either overland by truck or train, inland waterway or air to the country of destination. So in theory not too bad, but if there are truck delays in the Netherlands, Belgium and France - and again in Kent, who knows? - it may lead to rotting fruit/veg. It will depend how they are packed. Either way, additional time/effort on the import may add to the price.

Pharma - no idea. I haven't really thought about it. Insulin isn't produced in the UK afaik, but also other medications. Euratom is also one of the things that seems to still be up in the air.

Then there are things like the NHS. Yes, it will, in theory, be easier to get nurses, doctors etc from African, South American etc countries. However there may be some reluctance to come over without cast iron guarantees about bringing family, and residency. Again, in theory this should put up the price (wages/salaries) of such staff making it easier for outsiders to meet the threshold for coming over, and also make the jobs more attractive for the British. Time will tell.

@LemonTT - Home rule was not independence.

I never said it was. I said it was seen by many as a path to independence.

Please stop speaking for all. You are not we.

That is a very weird statement and makes no sense. I am not claiming to speak for anyone other than myself.

@TheClitterati

The Northern Ireland issue seems to have been kicked into the long grass again - no solution or viable work around has been sorted for that has it?

The NI issue has been sorted. The NI protocol in the withdrawal agreement means there will be no border on the island of Ireland in the event of no deal. Obviously, nobody would dream of breaking such an agreement. Oh, wait.....

sorry, not really the place to ask but since we're all here: what is the actual status of border and NI at the moment? Are we still at the border in the Irish Sea?

@theDudesmummy

Many people knew, and said, what a disaster this will be. I marched repeatedly, screamed and shouted, lay down in the street at Trafalgar Square, pestered my MP, voted against it...nothing worked. Then I left the country.

@theDudesmummy I’m curious where did you go, and how are you finding it? I’m contemplating doing the same for the same reasons!

@Brefugee

sorry, not really the place to ask but since we're all here: what is the actual status of border and NI at the moment? Are we still at the border in the Irish Sea?

Theoretically, yes. However, the IMB has been designed to break that agreement. But the HoL has voted against it. I'm not sure of the implications of that but think at most, that will delay its implementation.

@LemonTT

The majority of people wanted to leave. Just like the majority of Irish people wanted to leave the UK 100 years ago. At some point the majority of Scottish people may too. Lots of examples of people voting to leave unions which are purely driven by nationalism and sovereignty ideals.

Very few examples of this happening without economic pain or punishment. Very few examples of it being regretted by those nationalists.

Btw I loathe nationalism, but this is what it is. Brexit was English nationalism stirred up by people with an economic stake in shattering the EU.

Scottish nationalism, atm, is even more bizarre. Leave the Uk and then transfer sovereignty to the EU.

Absolutely!

On the topic of food, someone said imported meat etc will be more expensive due to it being transported etc. Think about this, lamb from NZ is cheaper than lamb from Wales.

If we do a trade deal with the US food in the UK will not have a country of origin on the packaging, your beef could be from Brazil, Chicken the US and pork Denmark.

Animal welfare is poor in the EU, its worse elsewhere. The chlorination of chicken itself isn’t a problem, the need to chlorinate it is the problem as chickens are kept in even worse conditions than chickens in the UK.

Some products used in food in the US are banned in the EU, a deal would see us eating those products, like meat containing growth hormones, baked goods with high fructose corn syrup.

I’m a vegetarian, I also have the luxury of being able to afford higher food prices, so I can order from farm shops. Lots of people will have no choice but to buy the chlorinated chicken, the products with high fructose corn syrup etc. School meals rely on very cheap food, unlikely to be British goods.

I think it's very arrogant of you to assume that anyone who has a different point of view must be stupid and needs you to explain things to them.

@nanbread

"Should that be true I just won’t be buying it and sticking to Uk only meat as I always do anyway"

@Onedropbeat if we do the food deal the US wants us to do, which is looking increasingly likely, you won't know which meat is from the UK, as it will be illegal to label it with country of origin.

Just let that sink in for a minute.

You won't know where your food is coming from. UK, USA, or anywhere else.

I don't think it'll be illegal to label BRITISH meat will it?

I don't eat meat/fish/eggs, but if I did I'd start buying them from a farm shop. The biggest issue I can see is eating out.

We shouldn't be accepting meat from the USA with the disgusting animal welfare & atrocious food standards.

@SunscreenCentral

What No Deal means : in a nutshell

The UK is locked out of trading with Europe.

Especially if the US food standards are applied to British produce.

There's no way Europe will accept our food not knowing how it was produced or where it originated. - and who can blame them?

I don't think it'll be illegal to label BRITISH meat will it?

I'm afraid it will.

@NeonGenesis

I think it's very arrogant of you to assume that anyone who has a different point of view must be stupid and needs you to explain things to them.

Except that I've yet to hear anyone who thinks leaving is a good thing to explain it in terms other than getting control back, whilst at the same time complaining that our government is clueless...

@SchadenfreudePersonified

I don't think it'll be illegal to label BRITISH meat will it?

I'm afraid it will.

That’s quite shocking if true

No one will go to restaurants anymore or buy meat in supermarkets if you can’t trust it

The whole restaurant trade will be even more fucked than it already is

Oh, it will be totally crap. But none if us, unless Boris is on this thread, can do anything at all about it

Most people are aware that it will be difficult, but will improve over time. Yes prices of EU imported goods will rise, but we can and do import and export outside the EU. The EU is only a small portion of the world.

Add to that the incentive to be more self sufficient, less transport cost, more environmentally friendly.

You're focusing solely on the possible negative impact without considering how it could potentially benefit us. It's difficult to get your head around at first, change is always scary, but it's not necessarily worse, just different.

Blimey @flashbac I've only just noticed the time you posted this thread. Stop worrying about Brexit and go to sleep! You can't change it so just go to sleep.