People not understanding what no deal actually means?

[flashbac]

Do you understand what it means? For food prices, crime enforcement, things that affect you?
Think we can just trade with the rest of the world come January? Easy as that? Do WTO rules ring a bell? Pound crashing?
Or do you think sunlit uplands await you?

I work in supermarket retail in a role where we work with government on brexit deals, covid etc.

Hate to say it but government still haven’t fully grasped what is about to happen. The ministers in charge are utterly useless and clueless.

Worst case, food prices increase around 20%, shortages, job losses, British farmers get screwed, food quality goes down to save money, food miles increase.

I deal with this everyday and right now I am pretty depressed about what is speeding towards us.

ListeningQuietly

Personally I still think there will be a last-minute deal with the EU.

As the link from Clavinova explains, not all of those Agreements will actually come into operation on January 1st - including the second-largest Agreement with Norway and Iceland, which is subject to whatever deal the UK and EU make.

But really - deals like a £178 million a year trade deal with the Pacific States is small compensation for losing free access to the £600 billion of mutual trade between the UK and the EU (and these deals are not new business - just a continuation of business as usual).

Clavinova
Personally I still think there will be a last-minute deal with the EU.
The EU have no reason to budge.
So you are saying that you think it will be BINO in December ?
Really ?

[quote Clavinova]OchonAgusOchonO
If you had only answered my question, I would have left you alone

You spent 4/5 days telling me that a particular point I made wasn't relevant to the thread. You tried to intimidate me by asking me over and over again to justify why I thought my point was relevant. As far as I am concerned I gave you several adequate answers - not that I needed to. If you don't find my points interesting or relevant just skip over them.

Certain posters, when anything that disagrees with their position on brexit, tories, BJ etc, is posted, throw in an irrelevant piece of information in an attempt to distract.

It's a question of balance - I have an update on my point just for you - nearly 14,000 (out of 60,000) Leaving Cert students affected by the algorithm mess in Ireland;
www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/leaving-cert-why-the-government-deserves-an-f-for-algorithms-1.4374801[/quote]
No. I spent 4/5 days asking why a particular point was relevant. You kept saying you had answered, which wasn't actually an answer. If you had answered or c&p'd/quoted the answer you claimed to have given, even if I didn't agree, I would have left it. But because you kept insisting you had answered, I obviously was interested in reading that answer,

Anyway, I'm not going to derail this thread by continuing this discussion with you.

I think the sad thing I've realised is that the UK has no friends in the world

I don't like swede 😭😭

But really - deals like a £178 million a year trade deal with the Pacific States is small

Why not mention Switzerland, South Korea and Japan instead.

losing free access to the £600 billion of mutual trade between the UK and the EU

We won't be losing 'access' though.

More statistics here;

"The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£72 billion with the EU in 2019. A surplus of £23 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£95 billion on trade in goods."

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

Not all doom and gloom -
Quality Meat Scotland on export tariffs (lamb) - September 2020;

"Stuart Ashworth [Quality Meat Scotland director of economic services] argued the introduction of export tariffs need not keep farmers awake at night."

“The terms and conditions might be slightly different, but there’s nothing to say the demand for the product will change and there’s nothing to say our consumers will not continue to enjoy sheep meat.”

"although the introduction of export tariffs would impact prices, the level they fall to may be deemed “reasonable”

www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/farming/2475202/uncertainty-fails-to-slow-rise-in-store-lamb-prices/

OchonAgusOchonO
Anyway, I'm not going to derail this thread by continuing this discussion with you.

That's a relief.
I have to pick up ds2 in any case.

@Chesneyhawkes1

I don't like swede 😭😭

I live with one, hes alright, but you wouldn’t get many meals out of him.

I only really have ‘twitter knowledge’ about the negatives, via people who are say medical supplies experts or customs experts. There have been a lot of long threads laying out the clusterfucks ahead, since 2016.

What I don’t have is knowledge of what’s been sorted. I was disappointed to read in the media about the customs problems ahead that I knew had been flagged up literally years ago. Nothing was done by govt to progress solutions. Obviously that doesn’t bode well.

I said at the time, if people voted leave because they wanted things run better, then voting for it under the aegis of those particular people who are bad at running things and liars to boot was not a great way to get the better future they want. In 2016 what I saw was a massive amount of wishful thinking, and I think that’s why it always descends into vitriol and mockery (both sides): the mental gymnastics if you’re a leaver must be painful right now; and if you’re a remainer, it’s a bit like being Cassandra, you’re doomed to never, ever be capable of getting through to the people who’ve been used and lied to and a large number of whom are going to be fucked over very soon.

Because, come on, if this was going to be great for any sector, we’d never hear the end of it. At this point I’d love to know - to know directly from experts in that sector - what benefits await. Tumbleweed.

Clavinova
A trade deal with Switzerland is pretty pointless unless you can find a land route that misses out the EU

What does the UK buy from South Korea and Japan
that I can eat for supper in the first week of January?

@Girlsblouse17

I think the sad thing I've realised is that the UK has no friends in the world

This! We don’t really deserve to, though. I feel some shame in that.

@DoubleDessertPlease you asked where I went when I left the UK, we went to Ireland. Best decision ever.

"Understandably, supermarkets have worked out the cost of applying these new tariffs in this British Retail Consortium exercise on their own supply chain data - the total is £3.1bn next year, versus zero this year. That is worth about £112 per household."

So about £2 per household per week.

That's only the effect of the tariffs on food prices. There are also non-tariff costs to consider.

If there are shortages of food items, e.g. if fewer goods cross the Channel, then the market responds by increasing prices - the market is an auction where the highest bidders can buy what is available and those who cannot pay miss out.

The figure does not include the additional costs caused by the increased red-tape that importers will face - and pay for people and IT systems to complete, adding to their costs - or the increased costs of freight as lorries are stuck in queues and not earning money.

The figure does not include the increased cost of warehousing as supermarkets, retailers and wholesalers are forced to hold buffer stocks. JIT supply chains have few warehouses - the lorries on the road are effectively rolling warehouses.

The figure does not consider the costs incurred if food production lines need to shut down. A frozen pizza uses mushrooms and onions from Holland, cheese from Ireland, tomato paste and olives from Italy, meat from Denmark, and is packaged in a box made from cardboard that comes from Sweden. If any one of these items is delayed, the production line stops.

And to the PP that was so rude about my "Diane Abbott facts", as they put it, regarding the actual fact that that half the population of the UK did NOT vote to leave: I was not the one who mentioned "half the piopulation", it was the previous poster. Obviously I fully understand that a majority of the portion of the electorate that voted, voted to leave. The dogs in the street know that, it's not up for debate. That was not what the PP was saying.

2 things from this thread:
I already know nobody likes us, you only have to watch The Eurovision Song Contest to know that.

Im thinking ahead and planning all my swede Based meals 🤣🤣🤣🤣

A bit like the EU wanting free access to our fishing waters then?

We sold them. Are you proposing we just take them back?

So consider some French company that buys ..bolts from us. They still need the bolts and their government wants them to get them so that they don't go under.

they have spent the time since July 2016 sourcing bolts from places where they don't have extra paperwork, probably.

A German company sells us... Baked Beans and will go out of business if we just stop buying.

They have spent the last 4 years finding new customers. If they were silly enough to be selling the majority of their product in one market - then they may go under. But it won't be because they haven't been trying to find new markets.

British businesses have been trying to find out what the government's direction will be. They don't know what paperwork may or may not be involved. It seems the infrastructure to carry out all the necessary checks and so on for imports isn't there. At the very least come January there is going to be a lot of people who can't do what they're supposed to. Not because they didn't want to prepare. Not because they're too stupid and probably not because they don't have experience importing/exporting to/from non-EU countries. But the infrastructure will be absent.

What does the UK buy from South Korea and Japan that I can eat for supper in the first week of January?

Nothing, you'll be eating grass, it'll be like North Korea.

@LemonTT

The majority of people wanted to leave. Just like the majority of Irish people wanted to leave the UK 100 years ago. At some point the majority of Scottish people may too. Lots of examples of people voting to leave unions which are purely driven by nationalism and sovereignty ideals.

Very few examples of this happening without economic pain or punishment. Very few examples of it being regretted by those nationalists.

Btw I loathe nationalism, but this is what it is. Brexit was English nationalism stirred up by people with an economic stake in shattering the EU.

Scottish nationalism, atm, is even more bizarre. Leave the Uk and then transfer sovereignty to the EU.

The majority of Irish people didn’t want to leave because we didn’t fucking join for fuck sake! 🙄🙄🙄

*we wanted our country back, just FYI. A country that was colonised.

I think the sad thing I've realised is that the UK has no friends in the world

Probably shouldn't have told the ones you had to fuck off then.

@FiveFootTwoEyesOfBlue

What does the UK buy from South Korea and Japan that I can eat for supper in the first week of January?

Nothing, you'll be eating grass, it'll be like North Korea.

Omg there are so many good ingredients from S Korea and Japan, I mean we already import them but if an upside of Brexit is more Far Eastern food then I’m IN

Just choked on my wine at “I’ve got 40 swedes I don’t need”

I would trade my bog roll stash but I think I’d rather eat it.

By my calculations 40 large swedes is about 12000 calories, so that'll keep an active adult going for almost a week