People not understanding what no deal actually means?

[flashbac]

Do you understand what it means? For food prices, crime enforcement, things that affect you?
Think we can just trade with the rest of the world come January? Easy as that? Do WTO rules ring a bell? Pound crashing?
Or do you think sunlit uplands await you?

For those of you who asking what the impact might be on food prices and supplies
The BRC has calculated that beef, which is imported in huge quantities from the Republic of Ireland, will go up in price by 48%, with cheddar cheese, another staple imported from across the Irish Sea, expected to cost 57% more. Oranges from Spain will cost 12% more, while the price of cucumbers will rise by 16%.

BBC -
"Understandably, supermarkets have worked out the cost of applying these new tariffs in this British Retail Consortium exercise on their own supply chain data - the total is £3.1bn next year, versus zero this year. That is worth about £112 per household."

So about £2 per household per week.

Further;
"In practice, some - but not all - these cost increases would be passed on, and some lower tariffs on imports from other places could offset those rises."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54287283?fbclid=IwAR0ebKBnlQzQ554cEF0kcAiG5OaH1xVOYtLQ1-d9vpk_uXI_aD_KRoTpAlU

@tara66

''Fox is poisonous to humans''? I didn't know that! So no road kill then?!

Where I live, most of the roadkill seems to be pheasant.

We'll be eating the very meat that the likes of Johnson pay good money to shoot.

OchonAgusOchonO
You stated, on a previous thread, that you AS'd me.

Misunderstanding - I thought you meant the other AS.

Oh come off it - anyone can check the Brexit forum - you chased me for days - I was trying to get rid of you.

@duffeldaisy

"We want to trade with the EU on the same terms, but they won't allow it. What we want is independance, but we can't have that AND have a trade deal."

Of course they won't allow it. That's the whole benefit of being part of that collaboration, having positive trade deals.
If we say we no longer want to be a part of that, we don't want to pay into it, then of course we won't be allowed to have any benefits of membership.

It's like tearing up your Vue card, not paying the cinema your monthly fees, and then wondering why they're being so unreasonable as not to let you in free any more.

Because trade works both ways, that's why it's called trade, they are cutting off their noses to spite their faces. Plenty of other countries have deals with the EU who aren't members, so there's that as well.

@Clavinova

OchonAgusOchonO You stated, on a previous thread, that you AS'd me.

Misunderstanding - I thought you meant the other AS.

Oh come off it - anyone can check the Brexit forum - you chased me for days - I was trying to get rid of you.

If you had only answered my question, I would have left you alone.

All the worry about food quality from the US...I wouldn't worry about it, yhe US don't want to trade with the UK is they don't honour the GFA. Which, as it stands, they don't intend to.

So don't be bothered about the chlorinated chicken or selling your beef, because the US has already said a a big NO thanks.

@Clavinova

SimonJT When countries make a trade deal with the US those countries are banned from having country of origin etc American food products sold in Canada are not labelled as being from the US.

How will the EU know the food products they are importing from Canada didn't originate from the US?

Because weirdly enough Canadian exporters aren’t buying the products from the local supermarket and then shipping them to the EU.

@bellinisurge

Lots of squirrels on this thread let loose by the usual suspects.

Squirrels, you say? Can we eat them?

Some people don’t mind if the price of food goes up and life becomes more difficult for many as long as we retain our so called ‘sovereignty’ and there are a fewer foreigners ‘taking our jobs’ These are the self same people who believe that we will get an ‘Australian style deal’. Hate to be the bearer of bad news , but an Australian style deal means NO DEAL.
We will see the adverse effect of our leaving the EU next year . I suspect that the Government will blame it all on the virus though.
Scary times.

@LastTrainEast
So consider some French company that buys ..bolts from us. They still need the bolts and their government wants them to get them so that they don't go under

Great example.

The French company currently buys bolts from a UK supplier. They can place an order on Monday afternoon, and because their is no customs paperwork to complete, no border checks and a free flow of goods across the Channel and no tariff paperwork, the bolts can be delivered next day. Let's say that the pallet of bolts costs the UK supplier £500 to make and deliver, for which it charges £700, making a £200 profit.

After January 1st, the French company wants to buy more bolts and wants guaranteed next-day delivery. They phone the UK supplier.
The UK supplier now needs to register as an exporter, needs to complete a customs declaration (costing £75), pay someone in-house to do the paperwork (say £25 per shipment) that they didn't do before. Then they need to pay the logistics company, whose costs have also increased by £50 a pallet to cover additional paperwork and the cost of delays at the ports and the cost of the truck returning empty as they can no longer pick up goods in the EU. The additional costs are therefore £150. If the UK company charges the old price of £700 per pallet, they make £50 profit instead of £200.

It gets worse. The £700 per pallet price must now include tariffs. To keep the maths simple, lets say approx. 20% of the £650 - so approx.£130. If the UK supplier attempts to absorb the cost, they now make a loss of (£50 - £130) = £80 loss per consignment. The UK supplier is bankrupt in a matter of weeks.

If the UK supplier asks the French importer to absorb the cost, the bolts now cost the importer £700 + £140 = £840. The importer also has to complete the additional importing paperwork that was not needed before - which costs money - and due to delays at the ports there is no guarantee of delivery times.

The importer says thanks but no thanks, wishes the UK manufacturer 'bon chance' and buys his bolts from a supplier in Germany, Spain, Poland or anywhere else in the EU, with no customs paperwork, no tariffs and no delays. Even if he has to pay 10% more than before (£770 instead of £700) this is still far cheaper than the UK supplier's new price.

I think Brexiteers wanted to be rid (amongst other things) of the huge financial yearly payments Britain paid to be a member of the EU ''club''. I think Britain's payments were only second to Germany's. We had to pay for the free trade etc. advantages. EU is not going give UK those advantages without any ''payments'' is it?

@Havanananana- great explanation

Remain lost.
Russia won.
It's time to get over it and minimise the damage as best we can.

Remain lost

Everyone lost. The issue here that we don't know just how badly we lost yet, or how much.

"In practice, some - but not all - these cost increases would be passed on, and some lower tariffs on imports from other places could offset those rises."

Under WTO rules, tariffs charged by the UK on imports from 'other places' have to be the same as tariffs charged on EU imports.

Supermarkets work on wafer-thin margins. There is very little room for them to absorb the cost increase. Likewise in the supply chain. If supermarkets attempt to squeeze their suppliers too tightly, the suppliers will go out of business (as has happened in the dairy farming industry, where many farmers have given up as they were being paid less for the milk than it was costing to produce).

If the UK supermarkets are actually able to source cheaper goods, there is no incentive for them to pass on the cost saving. If consumers will pay £1 for 4 red apples today, then they'll pay £1 after January 1st. If the supermarkets can source the apples for 10p cheaper, they'll sell at the same price, make an increased profit and use this to cover some of the costs of other goods that they will be forced to absorb (or pay it to the shareholders).

71 days to go and other than some lorry parks and a new permit system to enter Kent , what else has the government done to prepare the country for the end of the transition period ?

OchonAgusOchonO
If you had only answered my question, I would have left you alone

You spent 4/5 days telling me that a particular point I made wasn't relevant to the thread. You tried to intimidate me by asking me over and over again to justify why I thought my point was relevant. As far as I am concerned I gave you several adequate answers - not that I needed to. If you don't find my points interesting or relevant just skip over them.

Certain posters, when anything that disagrees with their position on brexit, tories, BJ etc, is posted, throw in an irrelevant piece of information in an attempt to distract.

It's a question of balance - I have an update on my point just for you - nearly 14,000 (out of 60,000) Leaving Cert students affected by the algorithm mess in Ireland;
www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/leaving-cert-why-the-government-deserves-an-f-for-algorithms-1.4374801

SimonJT
Because weirdly enough Canadian exporters aren’t buying the products from the local supermarket and then shipping them to the EU.

Canadians feed growth hormones to their cattle by the way;

www.unlockfood.ca/en/Articles/Farming-Food-production/Hormones-and-antibiotics-in-food-production.aspx

I do understand what No Deal will entail
I am therefore sad and angry in equal measure

@frumpety

71 days to go and other than some lorry parks and a new permit system to enter Kent , what else has the government done to prepare the country for the end of the transition period ?

Expensive TV ads in the middle of GBBO?

[quote Clavinova]SimonJT
Because weirdly enough Canadian exporters aren’t buying the products from the local supermarket and then shipping them to the EU.

Canadians feed growth hormones to their cattle by the way;

www.unlockfood.ca/en/Articles/Farming-Food-production/Hormones-and-antibiotics-in-food-production.aspx[/quote]
Yes, as someone with an interest in animal welfare it is something I am aware of. Sadly I doubt it will ever stop.

I suspect a lot of people don't realise "No Deal" doesn't just mean no free trade with Europe, it means no free trade with anywhere. We will be out of the trade deals the EU made, and we have not made our own to replace them.

And when we do make those deals, expect them to be far more unfavourable and undemocratic than anything we had in the EU. Boris doesn't want to be a "rule taker"? Well when it comes to the USA, China, and the EU, little Britain won't have a choice. Bend over and take what the big powers demand will be the price of getting a trade deal at all.

Expensive TV ads in the middle of GBBO

Ads telling traders, both importers and exporters, that time is running out - the implication being that if there are issues and chaos after January, it is the fault of the traders for not preparing.

Meanwhile, the traders and business organisations are still scratching their heads trying to work out exactly what they are supposed to be preparing for.

They cannot recruit and train anyone on how to use the new Customs processes and paperwork; they cannot invest in the new IT - it doesn't yet exist.

They cannot quote accurate prices and delivery times to their customers - they don't know what tariffs will apply, what other costs they will incur or what delivery times to quote if goods might be held up for days at the ports (or even if they can get their goods onto a lorry for delivery, as there are currently only 1,668 EU permits available for over 30,000 lorries).

Lord Agnew, Gove and Johnson have all been attempting to gaslight industries and the British public into believing that the chaos will be down to the traders, Gove saying yesterday that leaving the EU would be just as easy as moving house.

The Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) said on Monday that the industry still does not have details of the regulations it will be operating under after 1st January. This affects 82 million packs of drugs moving between the EU and the UK every month. Similar situations exist for importers of medical devices, chemicals, foodstuffs and more.

I suspect a lot of people don't realise "No Deal" doesn't just mean no free trade with Europe, it means no free trade with anywhere. We will be out of the trade deals the EU made, and we have not made our own to replace them.

"Existing UK trade agreements with non-EU countries."
"Find out about the trade agreements the UK has already signed and our discussions with countries the EU has a trade agreement with."
Last updated 15 October 2020 -

www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries

C&Pinova is on form today

but is forgetting

• lorry licences into the EU
• how much of the UKs fresh food comes from outside the EU
• clearance costs and time
• the simple fact that Lorry drivers will not want to do the English Channel route if it costs them more same as they used to avoid certain of the alpine tunnel routes

Even with limited trade deals with other countries
the loss of the EU deal will be VERY VERY bad for the UK