To be really angry that seeing my parents is illegal?

[Snailsetssail]

My area is very likely to be locked down next week. I am so furious that it’s going to be against the law for me to see my parents, and my children to see their grandparents. We did lockdown properly last time, it was absolutely awful. My mental health plummeted and I don’t think I can do it again. I rely on support from family and friends.

Just feeling so incredibly angry about it all tonight. Poor people in Leicester have lived like this for 100 days so far with no end in site.

I’m so fed up and I know I’m going to be told to just get on it it. But I just need a space to vent.

We will have a vaccine in a few months.

Do you really believe that we will have a widely available working and effective vaccine by spring time?

Even if a vaccine is found that definitely works, it will take months to manufacturer and vaccine everyone who needs to be vaccinated.

Exactly - how long do the restrictions go on for? And how frequently?
How does the constant cycle ever break?

It will probably continue although the vaccine although they will have to take into account the economic costs. I think that they should be less restrictive with the student population at the moment and concentrate on reducing the spread from students to the rest of the population in the areas they live in.

@Aragog

We will have a vaccine in a few months.

Do you really believe that we will have a widely available working and effective vaccine by spring time?

Even if a vaccine is found that definitely works, it will take months to manufacturer and vaccine everyone who needs to be vaccinated.

Yes, I do think there will be a vaccine by spring. I don't think it will be months before it is manufactured as lots of companies have already been set up to do this.

I’m not suggesting that the Government take that route before I get roasted. However being realistic and until they find this vaccine I think herd immunity is the only thing that’s going to stop of if not weaken the virus. Let’s not forget either would everyone be suited to get the vaccine. How long would it take to go around everyone.
That said though I don’t want any of my loved ones catch it either, so It’s a very hard one.

One thing we do know the first lock down clearly didn’t work. The rona was still out there waiting for us like a swarm of angry bees waiting for us to emerge from the water.

@Aragog

Okay, so we all stick to the rules. Cases decrease. Restrictions ease. Oh look, cases have risen. Rinse. Repeat.

Exactly - how long do the restrictions go on for? And how frequently?
How does the constant cycle ever break?

March for several weeks only delayed it. It didn't stop Covid. It never was going to. These local lockdowns aren't helping in many areas - cases are still rising, probably as so much is still open (school, work, universities being key areas with lots of people mixing in close contact daily in large numbers) so do they even help now?

It’s only my opinion, but I think it’s directly related to hospital admissions and stopping them getting out of control.

Rates were rising in the summer but admissions weren’t, so we could carry on with less restrictions.

I don’t think lockdown will ever stop it enough to go back to normal, but it’s a balancing act to keep healthcare and economy afloat.

I suppose we will keep getting them until we either learn what we need to do to live with the virus without getting too many spikes, or until we get a vaccine.

I wish I had your confidence in the speed they will be able to get enough of the country vaccinated. As someone who is clinically vulnerable and still working FT with no SDing possible, with hundreds of young children each week, it would be nice to think it will happen that quick. The medics we know don't seem to have that level of confidence for there being enough vaccines ready, or enough time to get through a thorough vaccination programme countrywide, in 'a few months' - it will be nice if they are proved wrong though.

Regardless - the longer all the restrictions go on the less people are likely to abide by the all. The Government have always known this. Probably one of the reasons they started adding things to the 'illegal' lists rather than just being advisory. They hope the weight of the law might help force people into it.

Carry on as normal if that is what you want. Just be prepared for the restrictions to just drag on for longer and potentially get even tougher.

Exactly - how long do the restrictions go on for?

For as long as we care about excess deaths, and want NHS to have the capacity to treat people for conditions other than Covid. Always remembering that a low level of cases permits more economic activity than high levels (businesses collapsing chaotically from mass sickness, in UK and anywhere in supply chain)

And how frequently?

Possibly a wintertime issue - think virus season plus!0? But this is stuff of crystal balls

How does the constant cycle ever break?

When enough people are durably immune that it becomes essentially a disease of childhood (like pre-vaccine measles). Or when there is an effective vaccine that has reached at least 60% of the population,

It is so hard at the moment. So many restrictions, so many mental health issues, everyone is missing family. We're not designed to be isolated. However, I do strongly believe we have to play our part. For everyone who is deciding to ignore the rules, just bear in mind that as infections spread restrictions will get tighter. As we're already seeing pubs and restaurants are closing again. That is a lot of people losing their jobs and livelihoods. It has no effect on me as I don't work in that industry and that fact that I can't go to the pub doesn't bother me but I shed a tear for all those people with that fear and stress before Christmas. So much uncertainty in these awful times. So yes, it's rubbish we can't see our family but maybe if everyone sticks to the rules and the infections start dropping we may see our families at Christmas.

We will have a vaccine in a few months

We might have a vaccine in a few months. If we are very very lucky.
It will take a long time to roll out to the general population. It will likely be similar to flu in efficacy, again if we're lucky. So it will hopefully help mitigate some of the spread of covid but it won't end or eradicate it.

We will still need to learn to live with the virus.

For as long as we care about excess deaths

There are excess deaths every year, in pre-covid times. From flu, extremes of heat and cold (often linked to poor housing), air pollution...

I hope this new commitment to upend our lives to avoid excess deaths will extend to caring about those too. I suspect it won’t.

My widowed mum hasn't left the house since March - not once. She stays in her house and does her gardening and she hasn't complained ONCE.. But then again she's a war baby so she understands rules and sacrifice.

Exactly - how long do the restrictions go on for? And how frequently?
How does the constant cycle ever break?.

For as long as it takes luv. Make no mistake here... we are not in control the virus is & this virus LOVES hubris and arrogance.

Is worth remembering Covid 19 hasn't even had to mutate yet. Why? because its killing enough people just fine as is it. That's how badly we're all handling this.

Yes, there are excess deaths every winter and I agree that we should be striving to reduce them.

Not saying that because we have not yet succeeded, it's in any way OK to pile up more.

And of course, when the cause is a novel, readily transmissible pathogen, the steps required are rather different than when tackiling other causes.

I don't believe for one second that the government cares about excess deaths, they just know that they're not a vote winner.
After the initial care-home balls up, they are happy for care home residents to spend months or possibly years with no contact with family, as they can't be bothered to come up with any creative solutions there. Just keep them covid-free so it doesn't look bad with the voters.

For as long as it takes luv

I am not your luv, it's not up to you, and as long as it takes won't last forever when the tax revenue dries up.
And I cannot begin to express how heartily sick I am about people banging on about the fucking war.

@MaxNormal

We will have a vaccine in a few months

We might have a vaccine in a few months. If we are very very lucky.
It will take a long time to roll out to the general population. It will likely be similar to flu in efficacy, again if we're lucky. So it will hopefully help mitigate some of the spread of covid but it won't end or eradicate it.

We will still need to learn to live with the virus.

I disagree that we will only have it if we are very very lucky. I don't think it will take a long time to roll out to the NHS and some of the vulnerable which will make a big difference. They have set up companies to manufacture and adjust the pharmaceutical industry to do their job a lot more than I trust the government .The flu jab doesn't take a long time to manufacture and roll out. I'm not suggesting that society should totally shut down in the meantime but we can't carry on as we normally would without a lot of excess deaths not only from Covid but from other diseases.

It's nonsense. I didn't take any notice of it last time, and I won't next time. I just visit friends and family as usual. We only have one life and I don't intend wasting it at the whim of a government that doesn't know what it's doing.

adjust I trust

An absolute twat

And I cannot begin to express how heartily sick I am about people banging on about the fucking war

A-fucking-men

@JeanClaudeVanDammit

And I cannot begin to express how heartily sick I am about people banging on about the fucking war

A-fucking-men

Seconded

The point of a lockdown is not to eliminate the virus. The only way to eliminate a virus is vaccination, assuming a high efficiency and that the virus does not have an animal reservoir (like flu). COVID alas is zoonotic, so complete elimination will be difficult.

Nevertheless, lockdowns are to flatten the curve to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed. Until we have a reliable vaccine, rolling lockdowns may be a way of life for a year or two. It sucks, I won't disagree. You know what else sucks? Not being able to be by your parent's bedside when they're dying. Getting long term organ damage. Having a heart attack in your 30s. Watching your child die from a serious neurological problem.

Look at the US, which has resisted lockdowns or even wearing masks in public. To the point of shop workers being physically assaulted and in one case even shot to death. 7.7M cases, 214K deaths. Prorated by population, that's considerably worse than the UK. Why? Because Americans don't like rules. Note the difference north of the border. Canada has been smarter about this.

I understand your anger and frustration. And distrust of the Johnson government, who have yet to see a crisis they couldn't make worse. But flouting the law will not improve the situation. Why didn't the last lockdown work? Because too many people decided to ignore the rules.

Who am I? A frustrated ex-pat Brit epidemiologist in the US. Please don't turn the UK into America.

77yak a virus doesn't want to kill, then it wouldn't have any hosts. It doesn't want anything, its not like an enemy in war and I am also sick of the analogy and saying how crap modern people are. We "sucked it up" in March because it seemed like a finite thing and wasn't unreasonable to do it to give the NHS time - well they have had that time, Nightingales are set up, thousands of extra ventilators exist and a lot has been learned about how to treat the virus with less invasive measures. I genuinely believe that with good hygenie, masks (though I am v dubious about the efficacy of them when they are just thin cotton and fiddled with constantly, left in pockets etc) and sensible distancing, we should just get on with things. My dad is nearly 80 and has all the COPD, T2 D etc that makes him vulnerable. Since about June, he still sees me and my kids regularly because he is not prepared not to and that is his choice. If others choose differently that is their choice but we should not, in a democratic country have these kinds of impositions placed on our private lives.

Personally I think the restrictions are dragging it on for longer. If we had loosened up restrictions earlier in the spring/summer we could have got a bit more herd immunity under our belts and winter would have been easier to bare.
The restrictions are just like ripping a plaster off slowly.

Personally I think the restrictions are dragging it on for longer

But that is the whole point of the restrictions. To slow it down, flatten the curve, so the health services are not overwhelmed in a short space of time