To want coronavirus to just run it’s course now and get back to normal

[rosieposiepud]

For most of us, we’ll have a cold/feel quite rough for a few days. Dc will barely be effected yet MN is obsessed with shutting schools again. There may be many more deaths from coronavirus still to come, but they’ll be lot’s of deaths from other causes plus massive long term devastation to the economy etc if we carry on like this.

Sweden also does not have the same population density as the UK.

"If lockdowns worked, you'd see lower death rates in countries with the most severe lockdowns. One such country is Peru. They've had the strictest lockdown of any country and yet have one of the highest death rates. How do you explain that one to me?"

This is why you need to drill into the data you read instead of reading an angry fb post that chimes with your worldview and taking it as gospel.

There are so many different variables at play across countries that you can't cherry pick the one thing that's bothering you.

For example, Sweden had 573 deaths per million and didn't lock down. But France had 457 deaths per million, with a strict lockdown. Ergo, France fared better and lockdowns must work.

Although no one would claim it was that simple would they. Well, except you.

I think there may well come a point where governments and states have to say, we can't attempt to control this in the same way we have been.

I'm not convinced they really know when that should be thought about. Many people are consoling themselves that a vaccination will be forthcoming soon enough (at all) and we won't need to make that decision.

As things stand I don't think most western countries will be able to manage another wiespread lockdown. I don't think they can do it in terms of productivity and it's a question whether people will accept it.

There are already cracks showing in some places. The effects of lockdowns in Africa have been really terrible. Certain businesses that have been scraping by because of the good weather are looking at the coming winter and there will likely be mass closures in some sectors. If schools close or many students are at home parents will not be able to maintain employment. In some countries people are challenging rules restricting freedom of movement in the country and around rights to congregate.

Even many of the people supposedly being protected are starting to complain. Where I live we are seeing protests by the families of people in care homes who have been denied normal access to their families and the outside world. Some of the elderly have said they would rather take their changces, or would rather die than remain cut off. Even the more positive are looking at their remaining lifespan and wondering what the trade off really is they are making.

I'm finding it fascinating to see the influx of new MNers, many of whom only post threads about CV - and so many joining in with similarly short, single interest, posting histories.

I thought the same @Notonthestairs.

Re: South Korea.
There were localised lockdowns in Seoul.

But importantly South Korea has an amazing quarantine system where people are placed in hotels or other centers paid for by the government to separate them from the rest of their household while ill. So it limits community spread and allows them to get their case numbers down more quickly. As previously mentioned their track and trace system is well developed.

In the absence of either of the above, a non locked down U.K. bears no resemblance to South Korea and the outcomes will be very different.

Or maybe they use a specific name for Coronavirus topics
Or namechange regularly.
Search my name and I joined MN about 10 days ago. Except I didn't. I joined 17 years ago.
I'm on a lot of Coronavirus threads because it affects all of us and I'm interested in how things are planning out. And I call out the eugenicists who think it's ok that the elderly and vulnerable are fed to the dogs as long as they can go down 'Spoons.

I do agree the lack of basic numeracy skills as evidenced by this thread is scary though. And those posters making numbers up presumably didn't miss school due to a pandemic.

Locking down every winter would reduce deaths from flu, regardless of herd immunity and protection. If you care so much about the vulnerable, why would you not support a regular winter lockdown?

There is a vaccination programme each year for flu, and while I'm not in the UK I'm pretty sure it is offered to the vulnerable there as it is in my country, plus anyone else who wants to have it can pay. Also, flu is not as serious as covid (for most people).

If lockdowns worked, you'd see lower death rates in countries with the most severe lockdowns. One such country is Peru. They've had the strictest lockdown of any country and yet have one of the highest death rates. How do you explain that one to me?

Some explanations here:
www.npr.org/2020/09/08/907084962/peru-locked-down-early-now-it-battles-one-of-the-worst-coronavirus-outbreaks?t=1600043802085&t=1600044094526

TLDR:
"7 out of 10 Peruvian workers are in the informal sector and often "couldn't afford to isolate" because they're dependent on daily earnings."

"very poor" health system, which failed to conduct effective testing and contact tracing and, in some areas, collapsed."

• lack of investment

"some believe the official numbers for coronavirus infections and deaths are inflated."
(due to testing method used).

How many of these threads do we need asking the same question? Can't you just read all the other threads where people explain why we're not going to being going back to 'normal' any time soon.

There may be many more deaths from coronavirus still to come, but they’ll be lot’s of deaths from other causes plus massive long term devastation to the economy etc if we carry on like this.

Sorry not read through the thread so may have been said, but it’s not a binary choice between saving lives or economy. Many public health experts have pointed out if the virus cases rise to high numbers and deaths again - or even just middling numbers this will affect the economy too. Too many off sick, confidence low etc.

One global health Professor online said UK could have used this summer to better prepare for avoiding a surge in cases this winter by improving track and trace, encouraging people to not go on holiday abroad and perhaps not doing the Eat Out scheme. However, they didn’t.

In the hope - which may not happen - a vaccine or decent therapeutics will happen by mid 2021 I think there is the case to still take various measures - doesn’t have to be full lockdown - to hopefully avoid a large surge of cases this winter. However, if by 2021 a vaccine or therapeutics have still not been found I think people will become resigned to living with CV and becoming habituated to the deaths and long term health complications of CV which is also bleak.

There is a vaccination programme each year for flu, and while I'm not in the UK I'm pretty sure it is offered to the vulnerable there as it is in my country, plus anyone else who wants to have it can pay. Also, flu is not as serious as covid (for most people).

So? It still kills 17,000 every year. Which could be prevented if we locked down every winter.

@TheKeatingFive

There is a vaccination programme each year for flu, and while I'm not in the UK I'm pretty sure it is offered to the vulnerable there as it is in my country, plus anyone else who wants to have it can pay. Also, flu is not as serious as covid (for most people).

So? It still kills 17,000 every year. Which could be prevented if we locked down every winter.

In Asia since SARS it’s been common for people to wear face masks throughout the winter, especially if they have any cold symptoms. That’s easier than a lockdown.

There is a vaccination programme each year for flu, and while I'm not in the UK I'm pretty sure it is offered to the vulnerable there as it is in my country, plus anyone else who wants to have it can pay. Also, flu is not as serious as covid (for most people).

So? It still kills 17,000 every year. Which could be prevented if we locked down every winter.

You are being ridiculous. Maybe you would like to see a permanent lockdown to prevent road traffic deaths. The death toll from flu is nothing like covid.

In Asia since SARS it’s been common for people to wear face masks throughout the winter, especially if they have any cold symptoms. That’s easier than a lockdown.

Well maybe. But no one’s ever suggested that here either.

Also, flu is not as serious as covid (for most people)

Flu kills hundreds of children every year in America alone and definitely kills healthy young adults. It’s also linked to chronic fatigue syndrome and other immune problems (all viruses have this potential tho). The vaccine isn’t all that effective from year to year, depends if they can match the strain that year. Flu cases overwhelm hospitals those years they don’t guess right.

COVID is more serious for the elderly for sure, but not other age groups.

You are being ridiculous. Maybe you would like to see a permanent lockdown to prevent road traffic deaths. The death toll from flu is nothing like covid.

I’m not being ridiculous. Simply pointing out the many preventable deaths we are absolutely fine with as a society. Yes that includes traffic accidents. 1.3 million die in RTA globally every year. We could easily prevent most of those. But the will isn’t there.

@HelloToMyKitty

Also, flu is not as serious as covid (for most people)

Flu kills hundreds of children every year in America alone and definitely kills healthy young adults. It’s also linked to chronic fatigue syndrome and other immune problems (all viruses have this potential tho). The vaccine isn’t all that effective from year to year, depends if they can match the strain that year. Flu cases overwhelm hospitals those years they don’t guess right.

COVID is more serious for the elderly for sure, but not other age groups.

I know this is a link to Tik Tok, but it's an American doctor posting lots of evidence comparing flu with Covid. The evidence is from studies published by the CDC, and he cites the references so you can verify it yourself.

It's very clear that Covid is much more serious than flu.

vm.tiktok.com/ZS5TtrLU/

Everyone wants it over. Saying it doesn't make it so.

@TheSeedsOfADream yes my comment wasn’t directed at you, but at posters who are yes eugenicist, aggressively anti any form of measures against the spread of corona, very rude to other posters and who seem to have sprung from nowhere...

Simply pointing out the many preventable deaths we are absolutely fine with as a society. Yes that includes traffic accidents. 1.3 million die in RTA globally every year. We could easily prevent most of those. But the will isn’t there.

I keep seeing these arguments and getting fed up with them.

A LOT is done to prevent other deaths, including traffic accidents. Most traffic accidents would be preventable by drivers not being stupid (dangerous or careless driving) but I'd love to know how you'd easily prevent this.
Unfortunately comments like yours and stupid drivers are sufficiently common.

@Illdealwithitinaminute

Who doesn't want to go back to normal?!

Unfortunately that's not actually an option, is it?

Either way, a strain will be put on the economy and the health-care system. There is no 'normal' life that can be achieved if there's an extra virus in the system that takes up money, resources and human time away from other things, even if you did nothing to prevent it running riot.

This

Most traffic accidents would be preventable by drivers not being stupid (dangerous or careless driving) but I'd love to know how you'd easily prevent this

You could set a much lower speed limit across the board and particularly in urban areas. You could have substantial fines for violations and a one strike and you’re out rule if you break the law. You could test people every year.

That’s just off the top of my head. Nothing like as extreme as picking down large chunks of the globe and it would save many lives. But we don’t care enough to do that.

Locking down

Deaths/major injuries from RTAs have reduced from years ago even though there is much more traffic. If the measures introduced over the years hadn’t happened there would be more deaths.

That’s just off the top of my head.
Clearly.
Imagine everyone driving at 10 miles per hour in every city.
You have the system of x number of points and you're out and many accidents still happen. And poor driving happens everywhere. Unless you have a big brother system.

Moving back to COVID, lockdowns are emergency tools for when transmission and numbers are out of control.
It was used widely when we were not prepared at all. Will be used locally if necessary.
Nobody wants them.
There are other tools.

I strongly suggest you spend more time reading serious articles and covid specialists than talking about covid here.