To want coronavirus to just run it’s course now and get back to normal

[rosieposiepud]

For most of us, we’ll have a cold/feel quite rough for a few days. Dc will barely be effected yet MN is obsessed with shutting schools again. There may be many more deaths from coronavirus still to come, but they’ll be lot’s of deaths from other causes plus massive long term devastation to the economy etc if we carry on like this.

Well we all want it to go away and for life to get back to normal. Why would you for one second think that is some sort of unique feeling? However the fact is we're in the middle of a pandemic which if left to run it's natural course means it will almost certainly collapse the healthcare system completely. What the fuck do you think that will do to the economy? How many people will die of other types of illness when the healthcare system has completely stopped functioning? Why in the name of god do you think that almost every country in the world has imposed some form of mitigation strategy? It's because the consequences of not doing so would be so, so, so much worse.

The good news is, this isn't forever. We'll have good news on a vaccine in the coming month or so. With mass vaccination underway enough by spring that life will be back to normal by early summer. We're more than halfway through this. But realistically, the worst may still be to come and if we don't take serious short term action the consequences of that will be far worse than the short sharp shock of winter lockdowns.

Mumsnet is weird though.

Half of the posters think anybody over 60 should be dead already anyway so why should they sacrifice their birthday party for the vulnerable...(curiously they daren't say the same about the disabled and other clinically vulnerable people but anyone churning out the "well they were 85 anyway" trope gets put in my hateful-eugenicist box.)

While a quarter think the virus is a Russian/Chinese/CIA plot

And another quarter haven't even touched their husband's arm and live in hazmat gear.

Real life is a bit more normal with people (generally) following guidelines, doing their best and trusting that this too shall pass. Which it will. And sooner if more people are like the real life ones!

I think coronavirus will have a devastating impact on jobs and especially mental health, which has been minimised.

The other day I was in a waiting room and there was an older baby in a pram, maybe one years old. She was staring around at all these people as babies do, and it really hit me then - how weird for a baby to be experiencing this inability to read faces? I dont have kids so it didn't really occur to me before, but in that moment I did think - god surely that's quite a big deal in a kids development? I whipped my face mask up and down to smile at her and she gave me the biggest smile back.

Personally I refuse to wear "cutesy" or pretty face masks. I wear the medical ones. It's just psychological but I will willingly wear my mask, however I refuse to help normalise it by turning it into a fun accessory.

I had a nervous breakdown during lockdown and am now on meds. I hope I will get back to normal, but I think there are a lot of people out there whose mental health will have taken a battering.

I don't think it's right, normal or healthy to be living in a society that encourages distance between us, especially in light of growing screen time and mobile device use. I hope we will be back to normal next year.

To want coronavirus to just run it’s course now and get back to normal

Well yes, that would be lovely.
I'd also really like for ds not to contract it, as he has medical needs that would make him very vulnerable to the virus. To be honest, having seen the after effects of Covid on a couple of friends who've had it, I'd quite like to avoid me, dh and our dd's getting it too.
The government has fucked up their approach to this crisis and continue to do so.
I am not one for religion, but I pray for a vaccine, normal may not be back for a while yet though.

@alittleprivacy

Well we all want it to go away and for life to get back to normal. Why would you for one second think that is some sort of unique feeling? However the fact is we're in the middle of a pandemic which if left to run it's natural course means it will almost certainly collapse the healthcare system completely. What the fuck do you think that will do to the economy? How many people will die of other types of illness when the healthcare system has completely stopped functioning? Why in the name of god do you think that almost every country in the world has imposed some form of mitigation strategy? It's because the consequences of not doing so would be so, so, so much worse.

The good news is, this isn't forever. We'll have good news on a vaccine in the coming month or so. With mass vaccination underway enough by spring that life will be back to normal by early summer. We're more than halfway through this. But realistically, the worst may still be to come and if we don't take serious short term action the consequences of that will be far worse than the short sharp shock of winter lockdowns.

There is a reason that it normally takes years to develop a safe vaccine. We might be lucky and enough ressources and volunteers will enable us to get a safe vaccine out much quicker than normal, but this is far from guaranteed.

We are going to have to come up with a strategy that people can cope with for the long run. The harder we lock down the longer this is going to go on so let's hope the government stops listening to the focus groups and starts listening to the science.

@TheSeedsOfADream why will our following the rules make this pass faster? It’s not going to suddenly disappear, we need a cure or vaccination for that and there is no guarantee of either.

Of course we all want it over with.

People with vulnerabilities, and elderly people, are not all at death's door anyway. I am intending to have another 50+ years of life, and I don't think asking people to give up a few parties is too much. Same goes for my 80yo aunt. She might have 6 months or 6 years, or more, but no need to make her suffer and hasten her death.

For those with an empathy bypass, it is also worth considering that if us dispensible people are filling up ITU and using the ventilators, what happens if your family is in a car accident or your child falls in a river?

We need to get the balance right, and mental health and economic considerations are important. It would be a good start if people would just fucking follow the rules on social distancing, mask wearing etc unless they genuinely cannot. I dont have much sympathy for those who post selfies where everyone is piled in cheek by jowl then moan about the possibility of more draconian measures.

@alittleprivacy

“The good news is, this isn't forever. We'll have good news on a vaccine in the coming month or so. With mass vaccination underway enough by spring that life will be back to normal by early summer. We're more than halfway through this”

You literally just made all that up - none of that is fact or a certainty. Would be great if it was.

@easterwedding You literally just made all that up - none of that is fact or a certainty. Would be great if it was.

No I didn't. PfizerBiontech are expecting to make a statement in the next 3-4 weeks about their Phase 3 trials. And now that OxfordAstraZeneca has resumed their trial they are expected to announce results in a similar timeframe. The timeframe for mass vaccination that I've given is that outlined by the WHO at their 4/9 press briefing which I watched in full. The expected timeline for a vaccine is very, very soon. Get you news from the source, not the mainstream media.

@firstevernamechange There is a reason that it normally takes years to develop a safe vaccine. We might be lucky and enough ressources and volunteers will enable us to get a safe vaccine out much quicker than normal, but this is far from guaranteed.

That's nonsense spouted by people who think they are educated on this subject but haven't been following what is actually happening on the vaccine front. The fastest a vaccine has ever been developed is under 5 months. And the front runners for this vaccine while the specificity is had to be adapted, are adapted vaccines that were being developed for SARS and MERS. There are respectively 17 and 8 years of research behind these vaccines. The processes through which we can trigger an immune response are over a decade old. They just weren't needed until now. It's largely the vector process which had to be developed and refined. Such as the Cansino Ad5 vector, which despite it's now known drawbacks in over 55s, has been used for mass vaccination of the Chinese military for over 10 weeks now. Or the use of Sinopharm's inactivated whole virus, which has also been used in Chinese mass vaccinations for 10 weeks. And as absolutely controversial as Sputnik is, the use of Ad5 as an initial vector with Ad26 as a booster will be extremely interesting to see the results of. The issue of pre-existing antibody response to and Ad vector is one of the main issues.

Our two best candidates, O/AZ uses an chimpanzee Ad in order side-step this and thankfully looks safe. Though the efficacy of the vector in boosters is still up for question. While the RNA vector being used by P/Bt, is completely brand new and will almost certainly form the basis of the vaccine we use in the future. Because no matter which vaccines we start using first, history tells us over time the process will be refined and in time we will use the better technology.

"Same goes for my 80yo aunt. She might have 6 months or 6 years, or more, but no need to make her suffer and hasten her death."

But the restrictions themselves cause immense suffering for many older people, who are denied contact with families, particularly if they're in care homes. Why is their suffering not important?

[quote alittleprivacy]**@easterwedding* You literally just made all that up - none of that is fact or a certainty. Would be great if it was.*

No I didn't. PfizerBiontech are expecting to make a statement in the next 3-4 weeks about their Phase 3 trials. And now that OxfordAstraZeneca has resumed their trial they are expected to announce results in a similar timeframe. The timeframe for mass vaccination that I've given is that outlined by the WHO at their 4/9 press briefing which I watched in full. The expected timeline for a vaccine is very, very soon. Get you news from the source, not the mainstream media.

@firstevernamechange There is a reason that it normally takes years to develop a safe vaccine. We might be lucky and enough ressources and volunteers will enable us to get a safe vaccine out much quicker than normal, but this is far from guaranteed.

That's nonsense spouted by people who think they are educated on this subject but haven't been following what is actually happening on the vaccine front. The fastest a vaccine has ever been developed is under 5 months. And the front runners for this vaccine while the specificity is had to be adapted, are adapted vaccines that were being developed for SARS and MERS. There are respectively 17 and 8 years of research behind these vaccines. The processes through which we can trigger an immune response are over a decade old. They just weren't needed until now. It's largely the vector process which had to be developed and refined. Such as the Cansino Ad5 vector, which despite it's now known drawbacks in over 55s, has been used for mass vaccination of the Chinese military for over 10 weeks now. Or the use of Sinopharm's inactivated whole virus, which has also been used in Chinese mass vaccinations for 10 weeks. And as absolutely controversial as Sputnik is, the use of Ad5 as an initial vector with Ad26 as a booster will be extremely interesting to see the results of. The issue of pre-existing antibody response to and Ad vector is one of the main issues.

Our two best candidates, O/AZ uses an chimpanzee Ad in order side-step this and thankfully looks safe. Though the efficacy of the vector in boosters is still up for question. While the RNA vector being used by P/Bt, is completely brand new and will almost certainly form the basis of the vaccine we use in the future. Because no matter which vaccines we start using first, history tells us over time the process will be refined and in time we will use the better technology.[/quote]
Thank you for taking the time to write all that ♥️

Yes I've often thought if we just let Corona do its things, whilst shielding the vulnerable all this would be over by now. Like taking off a plaster, better to rip it off quickly than let the pain drag on

The other day I was in a waiting room and there was an older baby in a pram, maybe one years old. She was staring around at all these people as babies do, and it really hit me then - how weird for a baby to be experiencing this inability to read faces? I dont have kids so it didn't really occur to me before, but in that moment I did think - god surely that's quite a big deal in a kids development?

Really, no.

Babies spend most of their time at home with their families who obviously don’t wear masks at home. Their exposure to people wearing masks is very minimal.

And plenty of babies are raised in cultures where all woman wear veils and have far more of their faces covered than our masks do, without any negative impact.

@110APiccadilly of course their suffering is important, as I said. It's just not a case of total lockdown vs do nothing and give up on even trying mitigation. If people would follow guidance on stuff like masks, social distancing, no large gatherings etc the more restrictive stuff would be less necessary.

We aren't going back to normal. There will be another national lockdown in October/November.

Yes I've often thought if we just let Corona do its things, whilst shielding the vulnerable all this would be over by now.

It certainly would not “be over by now.” COVID isn’t going away till there’s a vaccine. The idea that it’s just going to go away is naive.

The amount of people who are vulnerable (not just the “extremely vulnerable” who were told to shield) plus their families runs to many millions. Of course entire families would need to shield too since you can’t encourage free transmission and encourage the virus to infect everyone then let people go home to vulnerable grandparents. The sheer scale of people who would have to shield if the virus was being allowed to run rampant would have destroyed the economy and destroyed the NHS.

😂😂😂yeah that would be great if it would just Go away!

It’s not just a bad cold for a few days - I’m 30 and had it a few months back - I was ill for a month - way worse than any flu or cold I had! People need to stop saying it’s just like a bad cold.

My 40 year old friend was in intensive care and is still in bits months later - nearly died - no underlying health conditions.

It hasn’t been that long - 6 months life has been like this. It really isn’t a big deal! Slowing it down gives us time to try work towards a vaccine - save older people’s lives!

I’d happily live like this another year if it meant it kept my parents safe and alive for longer - they have many years ahead of them I hope - but people like you think they should just take their chances and potentially die from the virus because you want to go back to normal. Ffs

I don’t believe there will be another national lockdown, Johnson will sacrifice lives to avoid it because the economy can’t take it. There will be local lockdowns and a tightening of restrictions but not another full lockdown.

alittleprivacy I read so much hysterical nonsense on this website about Coronavirus that when I read posts like yours it makes me so happy because I'm reminded that not everyone has lost their mind in this pandemic. Thank you.

I think that the longer this continues the harder it will be for the government to keep control over people's behaviour. You can already see it happening with the spike in the 17-24 cohort. Go on Reddit which is dominated by this generation and there's a lot of people posting there that they've had enough, they've sacrificed enough, and since the elderly didn't care when they shafted them with Brexit then why should they continue to bother?

It's an extreme view of course but one that I expect will become more prevalent over time, especially when more people realise that the infection fatality ratio isn't as high as the media makes it seem.

So essentially we better hope that a vaccine arrives shortly because patience is wearing thin and I can't see social distancing continuing for the next year.

@PickACoolUserName I read so much hysterical nonsense on this website about Coronavirus that when I read posts like yours it makes me so happy because I'm reminded that not everyone has lost their mind in this pandemic. Thank you.

I 100% see plenty of evidence that we will have a vaccine in the very near future. And I think that governments made a massive mistake by stressing that we may never have a vaccine. While they absolutely had to make decisions in February and March that were not reliant on future technology, they could also have been honest and told people that there was a lot of reason to believe that a vaccine would start to become available by winter 2020/2021. That there were obviously no guarantees at that point but that if we planned for a year of varying levels of serious disruption to our lives, there was a very good chance that would be enough. It would have made people both more compliant with necessary lockdown and less distrustful of the coming vaccine. Instead people don't want to comply anymore because they think it will take years and years for this to end. And it will make even sensible people deeply distrustful of the coming vaccine, because they were primed to think it would take years. Despite it being extremely likely since mid-February that there were several very good candidates preparing for trials.

That said, there is a very, very good chance that things are going to get worse before they get better. I'm mentally preparing myself for a very, very tough winter and a very muted Christmas compared to how we normally celebrate it. (I'm not expecting too many older men with white beards to be signing up for 1000s of kids to sit on their knee through December!) However, it will be one where vaccinations of priority groups will have either started or are being prepared to start. So it will be tough but with a clearer end in sight.

Welcome to MN rosieposiepud

@username108

We aren't going back to normal. There will be another national lockdown in October/November.

Where has that been announced?

Who doesn't want to go back to normal?!

Unfortunately that's not actually an option, is it?

Either way, a strain will be put on the economy and the health-care system. There is no 'normal' life that can be achieved if there's an extra virus in the system that takes up money, resources and human time away from other things, even if you did nothing to prevent it running riot.

The IFR has been known since February to most likely be somewhere between 2 and 0.5%. The Diamond Princess gave us very, very good indicators of a low IFR in a largely older 'population.' Most likely on the lower end. The WHO currently places it at 0.62%. However that is quite high and, and anything like 2% of cases becoming severely ill can be more than enough to devastate most healthcare systems if even 20% of the the population is infected at once. And that's before you consider the prevalence of post-viral inflammatory issues that come with Covid and could lead to a significant portion of the workforce being ill for many months each. Containing the spread really is necessary for numerous reasons. Lockdowns are awful. Unfortunately the alternative is worse. But we really are almost certainly coming to the beginning of the end.