A Level U turn

[Jargo]

Holy shit, now based on teacher predictions.

When people say that vice chancellors will be pleased think they are forgetting why they were caps in the first place. It was to stop the more "prestigious" universities taking more UK students to replace international ones causing less "presitigous" universities to go bankrupt. That situation hasn't changed so lifting the cap will put some universities at risk of bankruptcy.

sashagabadon

I agree.

Although there could be lots more changes to assessment next year, depending on how schools opening goes.

Ofqual have already made another change to the examined content since their first announcement about this.

@sashagabadon by not a proper education, do you mean that they haven't been given online learning, or that they were only given online learning?

There's plenty of children in other countries who have to do online learning as their education (ie. rural Australia for example).

This is exactly why the student numbers cap, that Williamson casually removed today, was reintroduced in the first place.

Yep. He's probably forgotten what the cap was for. More incompetence.

[quote manymanymany]If anyone wants to take the time to read actual research into teacher predictions, potential bias and so on, here's one from 2016. It does conclude that disadvantaged kids do less well - www.ucu.org.uk/media/8409/Predicted-grades-accuracy-and-impact-Dec-16/pdf/Predicted_grades_report_Dec2016.pdf[/quote]
Thanks manymanymany - I've been looking for a comprehensive and independent study of teacher predictions in previous years. The UCU study is excellent.

The highlights are:
Only 16% of teacher predictions were accurate. 75% were over-predicted, 9% were under-predicted.
Disadvantaged students and students from state schools and academy schools are most likely to be over-predicted.
Asian and Black applicants are more likely to be severely over-predicted.
There is no apparent difference in the rates of grade accuracy between girls and boys.

jcyclops

Bear in mind that this study is dealing with UCAS predictions which are not equivalent to CAGs this year.

But you may know that already so apologies if you do!!

@SandyY2K

It's known that black children are underpredicted at GCSE level. They usually achieve higher than predictions.

This is all part of unconscious bias and systemic racism. I've had these under predictions my children and with children of other family and friends.

If systemic racism applies in health care and the police... why would schools be any different?

The problem is the systemic nature and the unconscious bias, means you don't even know this is the case.

That's a whole other issue...but it exists...denying it doesn't make it not reality.

It's systemic and not directed to any individual teacher....just like not all police are racist...even though the institition is.

I don't want this to become about race. .it was just in relation to the ranking.

GTG

Oh why didn’t you say you meant we teachers are covert racists as opposed to your general, everyday, blatant bigots? When you put it like that, it’s so much less offensive

I find it astonishing and depressing that anyone thinks that teachers are immune to unconscious bias - no one is.

The universities are shitting themselves about not getting enough students (work in one) I don't think its going to be a thing.

The universities are shitting themselves about not getting enough students (work in one) I don't think its going to be a thing.

That depends on the university. If you work in one that is already shitting itself about not enough students things could get worse.

IMO the most disadvantaged cohort are actually this year 12

That's true but it's not great for anybody as far as I can tell.

Not sure I'd be overjoyed to go to uni this year. My kids are in their 20's and all really enjoyed and benefited from the whole university experience. They were enthusiastic about their subjects and their lecturers (not every single lecturer but most of them). I'm sure the richer Unis (Oxbridges etc) will still be able to deliver this experience but I wonder whether other universities will. It's not like they were in a good position before Covid19

@Spaceprincess

The universities are shitting themselves about not getting enough students (work in one) I don't think its going to be a thing.

But they also need to have one eye on league tables etc as taking in a lower quality cohort which may impact their rankings in 3 years' time which would be far more disastrous in the long run than a few empty places.

.

@caringcarer

This is bad news for all previous students who worked hard to achieve their grades only to find this years students leapfrogged over them. I know a student who got C,D,E in mocks and will now be given A,A,B. Also unfair on next year's cohort, having missed 5 months education, unless in an independent school or rare state school that did the online lessons, they will look very poor against this years superstars with all As and A grades. As 2030 students now allowed to choose best of algorithm or CAG grade inflation will exceed 14 per cent.

Employers will simply disregard grades of 2020.

Do you have a child doing A levels or GCSE?

@Hardbackwriter

I find it astonishing and depressing that anyone thinks that teachers are immune to unconscious bias - no one is.

No one is saying that teachers are immune.

On the contrary we are very aware of it and spent AGES on our submissions - we used all relevant assessments and (in my school anyway) removed names from the ranking process so did it “blind”. But perhaps you think we marked the assessments in a biased way. Including Maths, maybe.

[quote Jargo]@sashagabadon by not a proper education, do you mean that they haven't been given online learning, or that they were only given online learning?

There's plenty of children in other countries who have to do online learning as their education (ie. rural Australia for example).[/quote]
my dd year 12 has had very rubbish on line lessons if you can call them "lessons" from about mid April and then was allowed to go in one day a week for 3 hours from mid June. Pretty rubbish "learning" experience IMO
I am going to have to fork out a fortune in private tutors which I am happy to do - but not everyone is fortunate in this position in her year

@ile each day, source common sense. Government announced CAG grades were 14 per cent higher than any previous year. Algorithm graded a 2.4 grade inflation of A* and A grades and inflation of A-E too. Now students can choose between CAG and algorithm do 14+2.4 percent.

"2011 research by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills found that black applicants had the lowest predicted grade accuracy, with only 39.1 per cent of predicted grades accurate, while their white counterparts had the highest, at 53 per cent. Furthermore, the study found that black students are most likely to have their grades not just mispredicted, but underpredicted."

www.independent.co.uk/voices/coronavirus-schools-gcse-a-level-universities-predicted-grades-a9418471.html

The full version from the link:

"1.2.3 Ethnicity"
"Excluding those in the Unknown ethnic group, White applicants had the highest grade prediction accuracy (53.0%) and the lowest over-prediction rate (40.4%)."

"Black applicants had the lowest percentage accuracy with only 39.1% of grades accurately predicted.This group also had the highest over- and under-prediction rates (53.8% and 7.1% respectively)."

one positive is

we now all know all exactly what the problems are if children do not sit their exams and I imagine Governments, schools, parents, universities, MP's any other interested parties will never ever go down this road again, even if we are in the middle of a zombie apocalyspe, the world is on fire and spinning off it's axis - exams must go on as normal as cancelling them is worse

even if we are in the middle of a zombie apocalyspe, the world is on fire and spinning off it's axis - exams must go on as normal as cancelling them is worse grin

Think you're right there ; I'd expect keeping schools open will be a much higher priority if future lockdowns or restrictions are required as this has been pretty dreadful press for all concerned. Frankly they should have seen this coming after Scotland had to U turn on the same thing!

If it was an across the board downgrade to compensate for teachers over predictions, it wouldn't be so unfair, but to have some penalised and not others is so unjust.

I’m worried for the mental health of the students involved, mostly. Last week they were having offers withdrawn, and panicking about where they would go instead, having to un-make arrangements for accommodation and travel. Some may have felt entirely hopeless at everything crumbling. I only pray there were no suicide attempts.
It’s good the government has decided okay, teacher grades are go again, but geez they’re giving me whiplash!

I sincerely hope that in any local lockdowns - they will keep schools open - particularly for years 11 and 13 - but for all kids.
Can you imagine the utter frustration of living in an area unfortunate enough to suffer a series of local lockdowns over the next few months - any kids in that predicament will be so seriously disadvantaged it does not bear thinking about.
Schools staying open simply must be prioritised going forward.

As a teacher, this has pushed me over the edge. I’ve spent almost a week speaking to very upset parents and children, speaking to universities, managing students who have lost places at Cambridge and Oxford.

If it was an across the board downgrade to compensate for teachers over predictions, it wouldn't be so unfair, but to have some penalised and not others is so unjust.

The teachers haven't over predicted. They were unable to prophesy who would have had a bad exam day and who wouldn't.