A Level U turn

[Jargo]

Holy shit, now based on teacher predictions.

The teachers haven't over predicted. They were unable to prophesy who would have had a bad exam day and who wouldn't

Which resulted in an over prediction. A massive one. There is no point pretending otherwise. Why is a different discussion.

It’s a shambles - any students who took insurance offers last week may now be able to go to their first choice, opening up their insurance places to other students and so on and so on; all that heartache and stress for nothing! Particularly when GW and BJ saw what happened in Scotland; they could have avoided all of this.

Why is a different discussion.

No, it's not.
Teachers are being accused of over-predicting. They have not done so. The system put in place to cope with the lack of exams was not robust. That's where the fault is, not with the teachers' predictions.

Which resulted in an over prediction. A massive one. There is no point pretending otherwise. Why is a different discussion

Did it?

You were on the last thread where I used this example:

I have 5 students - Alex, Mollie, Mo, Shaneen and Beth - who I can evidence are capable of a C. Solidly evidence.
There is every chance that some of them - let’s say 2, won’t get it if they sit their exam.
I submit C for all of them.
Which students have I “over predicted”?

It’s not an over prediction issue - it’s a submitting a grade for a course that’s meant to be tested by a linear exam, issue.

Now they're all going to be clutching 3 As in their hot hands and be demanding Russell Group places*

And risk dropping out in the 2nd year because they have perhaps bitten off more than they can chew?

@Bluntness100

The teachers haven't over predicted. They were unable to prophesy who would have had a bad exam day and who wouldn't

Which resulted in an over prediction. A massive one. There is no point pretending otherwise. Why is a different discussion.

Each teacher will have looked at what a student could achieve on their best day in their subject. Reality is one or two papers often go relatively less well on the day , affecting the achieved grade for one or more subject, but noone could factor in which papers and what subjects this year. Except where a student would be likely to get a U through lack of study, poor grasp of the subject matter or no intention to take the exam. Yet even some of those were marked up by the algorithm!

Universities may have their work cut out with some students. I fear for what the drop off rate will be for the next couple of years,

@therhubarbbrothers

Now they're all going to be clutching 3 As in their hot hands and be demanding Russell Group places*

And risk dropping out in the 2nd year because they have perhaps bitten off more than they can chew?

precisely! Or wandering how come they are barely scraping a 2.2

Which resulted in an over prediction. A massive one. There is no point pretending otherwise.

Out of 100 students working at a C, say 5 would have a really bad day (relationship ended, row with mum, couldn’t sleep etc) and therefore get a D. Had the exam been taken a week later they would have achieved the C but a different 5 would have missed it due to the “day day” effects. Were they over predicted, or does the exam system simply not properly assess all students’ capability?

@Diceroll

Unis are going to be absolutely stuffed

It's excellent news for universities, with a significant drop in overseas students, and some wishing to postpone starting until things are more 'normal', they need this boost. Of course it will be an administrative nightmare, and I do feel for those who missed out on uni places and now, at the competitive unis for the competitive courses don't have a place- but on the whole spaces will still be higher than demand, just some compromises to be had.

It's not excellent news for all universities. The cap was in place to protect those universities who were at risk of another university cannibalising all their students to make up for the lack of international students.

Removing the cap will be disastrous for a number of institutions

I think folks are confusing things, there was a thirty or forty percent increase in grades, this is a massive over prediction. The whole thing about why is just that, why it occured, a justification. However it does not change the fact there was a massive over prediction in the first place which started this shit show.

I think folks are confusing things, there was a thirty or forty percent increase in grades

No, there wasn’t. Around 40% of students had grades changed by the algorithm.

The overall increase is, I believe, about 12% for Alevel and 9% for GCSE.

there was a massive over prediction in the first place which started this shit show.

Nope. The “over prediction” wasn’t massive, as it resulted in a 12% increase in grades rather then the 40% you claim. A significant chunk of that is “unwilling to guess which student would have had a bad day on the exam”. I don’t think that can fairly be described as over prediction.

It also didn’t start this shit show. The ofqual algorithm was tested by using data from 2016-18 to see if they could correctly get the 2019 grades. They were only accurate in 55% of cases. For some subjects, the accuracy dropped below 50%. The incredibly inaccurate algorithm is what started this shit show.

Removing the cap will be disastrous for a number of institutions

Indeed. Interesting looking at the messaging this evening - most of the RG have statements that they will indeed honour CAGs for all (bar where there are external limits). I haven't found any such message on any 1992 yet.

The Incredibly Inaccurate Algorithm

Sounds like a kid’s book 😂😂

Accuracy dropped as far as 25% in the worst subject 🤷🏻‍♀️

Now they're all going to be clutching 3 As in their hot hands and be demanding Russell Group places.*

But not unless they deserve 3 A*s. The grades are not plucked out of the air. CAGs are determined by the level the student is actually working at.

Yes teachers randomly plucked grades out of thin air, they believed that their dastardly scheme to improve grades and thus the schools stats would not be thwarted. isn't it fun when people who don't have a clue spout a load of crap, but seem to be defending a computer system which genuinely makes fuck all sense.

Each teacher will have looked at what a student could achieve on their best day in their subject.

No, please don’t assume this. Some/many teachers will have done as they were instructed and looked at what a student would be most likely to achieve if the distribution of grades remained similar to previous years.

This inconsistency is what has caused, and will continue to cause, the problems.

@titchy

Removing the cap will be disastrous for a number of institutions

Indeed. Interesting looking at the messaging this evening - most of the RG have statements that they will indeed honour CAGs for all (bar where there are external limits). I haven't found any such message on any 1992 yet.

Both me and DH work at post 92's. Mine will be okay but I bet DH's RG neighbours are rubbing their hand in glee. Worrying times

caringcarer

You might have missed my earlier question

Was your child doing A levels or gcse

The overall increase is, I believe, about 12% for Alevel and 9% for GCSE

Absolutely, I don’t really understand why people aren’t getting this, its been all over the news

And quite obviously not every child is getting 3 A* what a ridiculous statement

Ooh Rufus - bet you’re pleased with this!

Some/many teachers will have done as they were instructed and looked at what a student would be most likely to achieve if the distribution of grades remained similar to previous years.

I agree with this. If we had done “best day” a quarter of my students would have been moved up a grade!

Yes smile I’m pleased that dd should get the better grade, she appreciated she was lucky compared to a lot of people she knew. That kept her very grounded

Im terrified about next years as ds2 will be taking his A levels 😀

I work as an invigilator and i was NOT looking forward to the next meeting back at school

So can you choose one CAG grade then two algorithm grades or do you have to choose one set of grades?