A Level U turn

[Jargo]

Holy shit, now based on teacher predictions.

Anyway, it seems there is no process for challenging the CAGs, according to DS's school anyway.

(A* in his formally assessed coursework, and mix of As & Bs in general work, given a B in his CAG, essay subject. I was thinking of asking the school if he was on the borderline between A & B, but don't think I will now, because it probably wouldn't change anything. And we need to accept it for what it is and deal with what we have. Lot's of his friends are now eligible for their first-choice Unis again, which they weren't before, so I'm very happy for them.)

UntamedWisteria

This type of thing is mentioned extremely often in inset days.
Strangely it is rarely mentioned that white working class boys do least well out of our education system.

It that an unconscious bias or deliberate? feel free to discuss that.

Because we know of it, we find ways to prove that are results are not effected by it.

If two students score identically taking every single criteria, you still have to decide to put one above another, don't you?

Yes we do

And what if the dividing line comes between those 2 students?

Past learning, average grades, and attitude to learning. It would be very rare that they scored exactly the same mark in everything.

Yes, Statistically but the evidence from Scotland showed that teachers did the opposite of underestimating the disadvantaged kids.

Until there is evidence that BAME or PP kids were underestimated in this shambles, it’s probably best not to throw around accusations at teachers who really have had enough shit to deal with this week.

FrippEnos, I'm on your side, really I am!

@Hardbackwriter wrt conditional offers- yes the uni is obliged to hold the place if grades achieved, but if the student has panicked and accepted a place elsewhere they will have lost their original conditional offer

[quote Jargo]@IncidentsandAccidents can you explain further? The algorithm was applied across the board - some very elitist private schools have not faired well seemingly.[/quote]
It seems that if there were less than 15 students in the centre taking an exam, their results weren't moderated. Also, prior attainment of the centre was used as part of the moderation process, so centres with very mixed ability children would fare worse than centres with all high achieving children.

Good news for students but I think it devalues A levels to an extent.

So my son just got his CAG's and even though he got into his firm choice university he now has A BB, from A CC. Well thats today anyway....What a mess.

[quote Pogmella]@Hardbackwriter wrt conditional offers- yes the uni is obliged to hold the place if grades achieved, but if the student has panicked and accepted a place elsewhere they will have lost their original conditional offer[/quote]
They are asked to hold the places open in case grades change on appeal/remark but they don't have to and sometimes don't.

How does it devalue a-levels? How?

Good news for students but I think it devalues A levels to an extent

Why?

This year, and possibly next year (who knows at this stage!) are anomalies.

The courses haven’t changed - although i do hope this experience will make the DfE question whether we are assessing children in the best way - but that’s a conversation for another time.

Yes, Statistically but the evidence from Scotland showed that teachers did the opposite of underestimating the disadvantaged kids.

My point was it that I could see both being true. I could see the teachers in the poorer areas overestimating, but my experience is that poor kids in more mixed or wealthy schools get underestimated.

Certainly where I am there are a few mixed schools, but most of the poorest kids go to a few specific schools (the ones in rougher estates) so the statistics could easily show an overall overestimation which could be coming mostly from those schools, whilst concealing hugely unfair anomalies.

This whole process of exam cancellation/predicted grades/moderation has been a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

If anyone wants to take the time to read actual research into teacher predictions, potential bias and so on, here's one from 2016. It does conclude that disadvantaged kids do less well - www.ucu.org.uk/media/8409/Predicted-grades-accuracy-and-impact-Dec-16/pdf/Predicted_grades_report_Dec2016.pdf

@Diceroll

Unis are going to be absolutely stuffed

It's excellent news for universities, with a significant drop in overseas students, and some wishing to postpone starting until things are more 'normal', they need this boost. Of course it will be an administrative nightmare, and I do feel for those who missed out on uni places and now, at the competitive unis for the competitive courses don't have a place- but on the whole spaces will still be higher than demand, just some compromises to be had.

agreed. Surely for most uni's this is a very nice problem to have. A couple of months ago they were staring down the barrel of no income and no students. The medis was filled with stories about how no students would be attending this year and Uni's were going to go bust! Uni chancellors must be very happy with the way this has worked out indeed

A couple of months ago they were staring down the barrel of no income and no students. The medis was filled with stories about how no students would be attending this year and Uni's were going to go bust!
Uni chancellors must be very happy with the way this has worked out indeed

I don't see that it makes any difference. There are the same amount of potential students.

A couple of months ago they were staring down the barrel of no income and no students. The medis was filled with stories about how no students would be attending this year and Uni's were going to go bust!
Uni chancellors must be very happy with the way this has worked out indeed

I don't see that it makes any difference. There are the same amount of potential students.

Uni chancellors must be very happy with the way this has worked out indeed

Not when the do their next student satisfaction survey they won't be...

This is bad news for all previous students who worked hard to achieve their grades only to find this years students leapfrogged over them. I know a student who got C,D,E in mocks and will now be given A,A,B. Also unfair on next year's cohort, having missed 5 months education, unless in an independent school or rare state school that did the online lessons, they will look very poor against this years superstars with all As and A grades. As 2030 students now allowed to choose best of algorithm or CAG grade inflation will exceed 14 per cent.

Employers will simply disregard grades of 2020.

Yes caringcarer - this years students should have just sucked it up. Necessary collateral damage

And no, it won't

This year's cohorts have been given a crap hand.

They didn't choose not to sit the exams. They were unable to sit the exams due to circumstances, and Government policy. How much more do people want them to be disadvantaged, to make it, somehow 'fair', on those that do get to have an uninterrupted education and get to sit the exams, as per schedule?

@Jargo

Uni chancellors must be very happy with the way this has worked out indeed

Not when the do their next student satisfaction survey they won't be...

true!

but the monies in the bank when surely they must have been worried about declining students this year

I remember listening to a vice chancellor on radio maybe in May when he seemed seriously worried about a lack of students this Sep. And the newspapers were full of "why would anyone go to Unit this year" articles.
So that danger seems to have been overblown

Which is good news of course

.. they will look very poor against this years superstars with all As and A grades*

Source?

CAG grade inflation will exceed 14 per cent

Source?

@mbosnz

This year's cohorts have been given a crap hand.

They didn't choose not to sit the exams. They were unable to sit the exams due to circumstances, and Government policy. How much more do people want them to be disadvantaged, to make it, somehow 'fair', on those that do get to have an uninterrupted education and get to sit the exams, as per schedule?

IMO the most disadvantaged cohort are actually this year 12. They have not had any proper education since March and face an autumn/ winter of potential local lockdowns reducing their education even further and will still have to sit exams and then compete for their uni offers with this years overinflated grades for their uni offers with any current year 13's have that deferred. They get the crappest hand of all

A couple of months ago they were staring down the barrel of no income and no students. The medis was filled with stories about how no students would be attending this year and Uni's were going to go bust!
Uni chancellors must be very happy with the way this has worked out indeed

It's going to have a very uneven impact across institutions. The 'winners' will have a lot of secure income but a logistical problem of what they actually do with their extra students, especially while trying to implement social distancing and other COVID measures. The 'losers', who normally rely on clearing, will be facing a huge financial problem; some might go bust. This is exactly why the student numbers cap, that Williamson casually removed today, was reintroduced in the first place.

@Lougle fewer than 5. Classes of 5 to 15 were partly CAG, partly algorithm. My class of 9 had three CAGs downgraded.