A Level U turn

[Jargo]

Holy shit, now based on teacher predictions.

I’m glad. The algorithm would have been hugely detrimental to the future of my year 11s due their results on Thursday. They live in an area of high deprivation, and would have been heavily penalised by the algorithm.

My CAGs have been very accurate, and I’m very confident that they reflect what my pupils likely would have achieved at GCSE. I awarded the grade based on Mocks, class assessments, class work, homework, attitude to learn, attendance to revision lessons up to Covid. There were plenty of pupils I’d have loved to have just awarded their MEG because it would be great for them (and me) but I didn’t. I failed pupils who weren’t on track to pass, if I honestly didn’t think they would pass the exam. All grades were heavily moderated by my head of department, who were then heavily scrutinised by the senior leadership team.

I am confident, although certain that some of my pupils will not be happy, but I have plenty of evidence which supports my grading and I stand by it.

If you re-read my posts you'll see I did not say Year 13's have barely been affected st all, @LimitIsUp.

Obviously this year 13 has been affected but in the end it has panned out as well as could be expected in the face of a global pandemic and an incompetent government.
Year 12 has also had its work to A level disrupted, will return as year 13 to uncertain circumstances with social distancing measures in place, and when they apply to univerity there will be fewer places available because some of this year's cohort will have had to defer.

It's a shit show but that's the current government for you.

@Jargo

Jargo surely the teachers predictions were a better indication though.

I don't doubt they were in some cases, but doubt they were in all cases. Several reports of teachers over inflating grades etc and it all does depend on whether a teacher likes/supports and individual student as well.

I sincerely hope it somehow works out as best it can for the majority but I just cannot see how that can possibly happen.

I’m so tired of the assumptions made by some people and the media re what teachers do and think. Teachers are professionals, they know their subjects, they know their kids, they know how to teach to learn.... no matter what the mass media would want you to believe. Comments like ‘several reports of teachers over inflating grades’ ‘depends on whether a teacher likes/supports’ are utterly insulting. The ‘teachers’ grades are in fact CAG.. centre assessed grades... this means that NO grade given to any one pupil is solely the responsibility of any one Teacher. The class/subject teacher has used a wide variety of prior learning and achievement to come to a grade (a predicted grade undertaken EVERY year), this is moderated across the subject, then across the faculty (eg. Head of sept & faculty) then moderated & analysed at SLT Level.... just to reiterate teachers are professionals, they work as a team, liking or disliking a pupil just doesn’t come into it, and wouldn’t even impact given the level of moderation that took place, as for inflating grades, again the level of moderation would prevent this, as would the worry of your line manager picking up on this or other pupils loosing out because of it.

Oh, come off it! Everyone knows you just stuck a pin into a class list and gave whichever name it landed on an A star

^*
I don't doubt they were in some cases, but doubt they were in all cases.*^

What is your job?
When at work when asked to do something do you and your colleagues regularly not do it properly? Are you and your colleagues usually not able to follow the guidelines and rules your employer has set you?

Because that's what you are accusing teachers of doing. By saying that the CAGs are over inflated because teachers chose them is saying that the teachers are not doing their job correctly.

I also think there is a lot of confusion over ucas predicted grades and CAGs. The media doesn't help as keeps referring to CAGs as predicted grades, whereas in schools the two are very different. In most cases the CAGs are lower than predictions.

@Tavannach

If you re-read my posts you'll see I did not say Year 13's have barely been affected st all, *@LimitIsUp*.

Obviously this year 13 has been affected but in the end it has panned out as well as could be expected in the face of a global pandemic and an incompetent government.
Year 12 has also had its work to A level disrupted, will return as year 13 to uncertain circumstances with social distancing measures in place, and when they apply to univerity there will be fewer places available because some of this year's cohort will have had to defer.

I agree. I think that some people are forgetting that some year 13 have actually done quite well out of this in that they got grades that were higher than what they would have achieved in exams. In contrast no one from the current year 12 will benefit and the higher competition from the deferred places/higher grades from this year will put them at a disadvantage,

Oh, come off it! Everyone knows you just stuck a pin into a class list and gave whichever name it landed on an A starwink

We use a dart board in my dept.

@SmileEachDay

Oh I thought we were supposed to give all the As to those kids who’s parents teach in our school! Did I read the memo wrong?

I also think there is a lot of confusion over ucas predicted grades and CAGs. The media doesn't help as keeps referring to CAGs as predicted grades, whereas in schools the two are very different. In most cases the CAGs are lower than predictions.

FFS the BBC keep doing this. Every time they do our whole family screams, 'They're CAGs, not predictions!!!!!' at the telly.

There are some kids like mine who tend to smash it last minute in the exams where the predictions will always be wrong especially for GCSEs. I am so glad none of mine are doing GCSEs this year! DD and DS1 were predicted 4 and 5s across subjects and ended up with only 8 and 9s only cramming in the last months before exams. I was the same at school and university. Always writing the essay the night before deadline and only revising in the weeks leading up to exams. Any other way would not work for me. I know a lot of people like this.

Oh I thought we were supposed to give all the As to those kids who’s parents teach in our school! Did I read the memo wrong?

No it’s ok Rainbow. The more random it is the better.

But the U-turn coming just a matter of hours after the universities had gone through 4 or 5 days of clearing was...interesting.

I don't think they really had a choice after the decisions in Wales and Northern Ireland. Personally I think they should have come up with a better appeals procedure instead (although I confess, DS1's results were all A*s last Thursday so we had nothing to lose). I did have a lot of sympathy for the outliers - but not so much for the students bemoaning their Ds and Es in mock exams on the radio.

Also the media have confused predicted grades with CAG, I lost count of how many times I have shouted at the radio about this over the last week.

This - definitely added to the fervour.

I don't think they really had a choice after the decisions in Wales and Northern Ireland

They could instead have looked at Scotland and taken some decisive action when it was obvious it would be at least as bad in England.

Or, you know, they could have been a bit smarter with using CAGs and challenging centres that were way off rather than creating an inaccurate and poorly tested algorithm.

It's frustrating for universities as they are now having to sort out a problem they didn't create in the first place. This will cause huge issues for a number of universities in the short and long term. The one bit of protection we had (the imposed cap) as been taken away leaving us very little time to do anything about it.

It's a worrying time for many of us.

They could instead have looked at Scotland and taken some decisive action

Gav did. He came up with his ‘valid mock’ idea that instead of solving the problem just made it a million times worse because then the appeals process couldn’t even kick off as no one knew what would count as a valid mock,
The mess then dragged on until it was clear that an instant solution was needed to stop things getting even worse.

CAGs wasn’t the best solution to the problem (by a long way, and god help current Y12), but by the time it was announced, it was the only solution left.

Or, you know, they could have been a bit smarter with using CAGs and challenging centres that were way off rather than creating an inaccurate and poorly tested algorithm.

That would have been better. I also don't get why they announced the results on the usual date. They could have done it a lot earlier and given universities the chance to organise.

CAGs wasn’t the best solution to the problem

I think they could have been, had Ofqual used them more effectively way back in June.

But yes, by the time Gavin had thrown mocks into the mix they had to go with what they had.

No doubt they will expect to be allowed to take the best grade, either algorithm or teacher assessed. Once they are at University how long will it take for them to expect a lowering of expectations because they are their on false grades?

It's a shit show but that's the current government for you.

Becase the last wonderful party in government handled it so much better, didn't they! Were I a member of the Labour party I would be heaving such a sigh of relief that I dodged this particular bullet.

mrsBtheparker

Your post is dripping with contempt for young people.

I hope you don’t work with them.

There are some kids like mine who tend to smash it last minute in the exams where the predictions will always be wrong especially for GCSEs. I am so glad none of mine are doing GCSEs this year! DD and DS1 were predicted 4 and 5s across subjects and ended up with only 8 and 9s only cramming in the last months before exams. I was the same at school and university. Always writing the essay the night before deadline and only revising in the weeks leading up to exams. Any other way would not work for me. I know a lot of people like this.

That's me and my DD to a tee.

No doubt they will expect to be allowed to take the best grade, either algorithm or teacher assessed. Once they are at University how long will it take for them to expect a lowering of expectations because they are their on false grades?

They're not false grades. They measure the level the student is actually working at.
They do not - baecause they cannot - reflect how this years's cohort would have scored on the day if they had taken actual exams. Because they didn't sit actual exams. So the kids with bad exam nerves, broken hearts, lack of sleep have had a reprieve. By next year's exams they won't necessarily be facing these issues but they will most probably still be working at that level. Because that's what they're capable of.

Teacher grades for African Caribbean students are usually predicted lower than for white students. This disparity must be examined closely if predicted.

Teacher grades for African Caribbean students are usually predicted lower than for white students.This disparity must be examined closely if predicted.

From the Independent newspaper in March;

"2011 research by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills found that black applicants had the lowest predicted grade accuracy, with only 39.1 per cent of predicted grades accurate, while their white counterparts had the highest, at 53 per cent. Furthermore, the study found that black students are most likely to have their grades not just mispredicted, but underpredicted."

A bit misleading - the full extract is here;

"1.2.3 Ethnicity"
"Excluding those in the Unknown ethnic group, White applicants had the highest grade prediction accuracy (53.0%) and the lowest over-prediction rate (40.4%)."

"Black applicants had the lowest percentage accuracy with only 39.1% of grades accurately predicted.This group also had the highest over- and under-prediction rates (53.8% and 7.1% respectively)."