The South West is on course to be locked down next

[Tellmetruth4]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cityam.com/coronavirus-in-england-whats-the-r-number-for-your-area/amp/%3futm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2020%2520Five%2520at%25205

According to the data, the South West’s R number is the same as the North West at +1. Will local councils be trying to sort it before the government impose official stricter lockdown measures as in the NW?

I use the joinZoe app which aims among other things to pick up infections early. It shows high numbers for Cornwall - same category as the lockdown areas.

FFS!

We've booked a self catering cottage in Cornwall next week. Middle of nowhere but on the coast on a tiny rocky beach. It's what we've been looking forward to. Tesco delivery booked and we're jot interested in shops or restaurants while we're there, or busy beaches, just a change of scene and nice walks. If we can't go I'll cry. 2 foreign holidays cancelled this year already. 😢

I love holidaying in other parts of England (is Cornwall England? - debate!)

Debate? Considering we have to follow Johnson's silly bloody rules, I think you'll find it's in England.

What always astounds me, Covid aside, is why anyone would want to go to a beach that packed? You are on the coast, keep driving and you'll come to another beach?

Yes even in non Covid years why go to the most popular & packed beaches on the hottest day of the year.

The South West covers such a large area it would be silly to lockdown the whole lot surely? Aren't the government locking down more localised areas now? Sorry, I haven't been paying much attention to the news lately.

The South West is a vast area from Bristol to lands end. A while ago there was concern on here when the R rate rose. This was entirely due to an outbreak in Weston hospital. That has absolutely no bearing on what’s happening in Newquay

".....But while the number of confirmed cases in Cornwall have nearly doubled in the last week, going from 10 to 19....."

The reality behind the Cornwall Live story.

The virus spreads indoors - on the tube, gatherings at home, in restaurants, cinemas, nightclubs etc. not walking down the streets or sitting on a beach or swimming in the sea.

@PhilCornwall1

Also Cornwall Live are a shower of shit stirrers.

You aren't wrong there. Constantly Tweeting bullshit yesterday.

They had a pop last week saying one of the popular beaches here was "overflowing", it wasn't at all. Everyone distanced properly, there wasn't a problem.

Somerset Live are the same. They gravely announced that cases in the county had doubled and it was the start of a spike.....the cases went from 4 to 8 over 2 weeks.

@Splodgetastic Oh that’s a shame you feel that way. Hopefully you’ll understand that people in Cornwall also go on holiday? So we’re usually tourists ourselves at some point.

We’re all in the same boat. I cancelled my holiday to the Lakes. And I long for a holiday in Corfu.

But just know that Cornwall has a population of approx 600,000 people and I promise we aren’t all dickheads.

@Splodgetastic

I would never go to Cornwall on holiday. Who wants to go somewhere on holiday that you feel unwelcome? I even had an email from the Cornish tourist board that I felt was kind of saying “yeah, come to Cornwall, but actually we’d rather you didn’t bother”. I love holidaying in other parts of England (is Cornwall England? - debate!), but with attitudes like that you can see why people would rather go to Spain where English tourists are welcomed with open arms (in my experience).

How odd, have been to Cornwall many times and never been made to feel unwelcome, have been to Devon recently and was made to feel welcome. Yes there are some locals who are obviously unhappy about 1000’s of people coming to the SW and possibly bringing the virus with them but a lot of people rely on tourists and are happy to see them back.

We live in the SW and are holidaying/camping in neighbouring counties over the next few weeks, so far we have felt welcomed, everyone seems to be reasonably sensible (other than those on the crowded beaches in Dorset) and we have very low amount of positive tests here.

@missyB1

We are Gloucestershire (so count as south west), we’ve never had high numbers of Covid here and still appears to be quiet (Dh is NHS). I did hear on news last night that’s there’s a bit of a problem in Swindon though which isn’t that far away.

Same. BBC Glos said yesterday there had been one CV19 death in July in Glos.

Glos Live is full of "cases rising by 50%!" scaremongering but that's like saying 2 people were infected, now 3 people are.

I think Swindon is having problems in the Honda plant etc. They are definitely back - there's a layby near me where the factory workers park and carpool together. Practically a Honda show room.

@Witsending is that data confirmed cases ? So people who have tested positive ?

Beaches are very low risk though, you're not close enough to be coughing on other people and aerosols disperse in the air. Especially compared to pubs and restaurants.

I was on a busy Dorset beach this week and we still had at least 2m around us at all times.
Toilets weren't too busy and were well stocked with soap.
Beach shop was serving people from a window.
When I was in shops/supermarkets I saw 100% mask compliance.

I wonder if they'll get two hours' notice via Twitter when it happens.

People saying south west is ‘very broad’ so are the random areas they’ve locked down in the north.

Rossendale has lower numbers than Preston, but they’re randomly locked down and Preston aren’t 🤷‍♀️

Calderdale is HUGE, and varies from overcrowded terraced housing to sparse moorland and low population.

I think ‘The Norf’ is one big lump to them.

The "South West" covers Swindon. In surveys that ask where you live Swindon is always "South West".

Having said that, I've been in Plymouth for the last few days. People there don't do social distancing. No-one moves out of the way when you pass them in the pavement, and the mask wearing rate indoors is a bit hit and miss. I held my breath a lot (does anyone else do that?)

@SockYarn

R numbers are irrelevant when cases are so low. One person infects two others - the R number is 2. Should we panic? No, because there are still only 2 new cases.

Track and trace is the important stuff now.

I'm not quite sure you get the maths.

Say it is passed on 10 times

R1 = 10

R2 - 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512

Usually during the antiCornish threads (I know this wasn’t intended to be one though!) there’s a poster who is really bitter about Cornwall. Not long ago they were caught out by failing to name change several times and posted multiple antiCornwall messages.

MN had to remove the thread because of all the “sockying”. Their words!

Glad we’re all in agreement about the Cornwall / Devon / Somerset/ Gloucester Live all being awful!

"why do people want to go on holiday this year anyway?"

Because some of us have worked right through this pandemic, catching Covid in the process. I am frontline NHS and absolutely worn out. 2 of the 3 DC who are coming with us, are nurses. Is it really that hard to see why some people need a break.
We cancelled our lovely Cornish cottage back in April and booked an isolated farmhouse in Snowdonia which is only an hour away. We will be devastated if we cant go.

I dont think it's being spread on beaches/outdoors, I think a lot of it has been spread by community NHS staff, unavoidably going from house to house and of course hospital acquired.
Also the idiots who keep getting together indoors with extended family with no social distancing at all.

The R rate is not at all relevant when there’s such a low number of infections, you only need a small outbreak in one nursing home or workplace to send it shooting up. If the actual figures (as in hospital admissions) do Go up significantly in popular holiday destinations surely the first move would be to put a stop to outside visitors rather than focus on the locals mixing.

The fundamental problem is that the government are in a state of blind panic and are flailing around, based on data that is often contradictory and advisers who can't always agree amongst themselves. As others have said above, a 'doubling' of infection rates may simply be an increase from 1 to 2 cases.

For example, calls to 111/999 reporting COVID symptoms (which you would expect to be a good indicator of a rise in infections nationally) continue to fall steadily.

People have lost confidence and trust in what the government is telling them so they either hunker down at home and go out as little as possible or, in some cases, they simply ignore the guidance and just decide to live their lives.

Whilst it might be possible to stay 2m apart once on beaches, many beaches are reached via small towns or villages where pavements and lanes are tiny and there’s often only a person-width route to the beach. I know lots of popular seaside places in Dorset and Cornwall where this is the case. If you know Lyme Regis or St Ives, you’ll know how impossible it must be to maintain proper social distance in the towns. This is much more of a problem than the space on the beach itself.

You’re right Beebie it’s almost as if Westminster doesn’t care about much further north or south than the Home Counties

It’s packed down here yep - never seen it so busy . If they lockdown here will they send all the tourists home?

I follow the Zoe app - run by King's College. It often seems ahead of the game - about 4 million people log in their health daily.

A few weeks ago there were only a few 'high' areas, whereas now there are many, spread all over the country. It's been pretty consistently high where we live in the Midlands, which has made us extra cautious about going out unnecessarily.