Where are those who predicted 18 months lockdown now

[AfterAte]

Firstly I realise that the lockdown in England is only being eases not ended. I am also aware that it is entirely possible there will be a second lockdown necessitated by a second spike. Finally, I am aware of and grateful for the sacrifices of those frontline workers, sad for those who have lost loved ones and both aware and grateful for the sacrifices of those who died in the 2 world wars and in other conflicts.

On 21st March on this website a thread entitled "How long are you expecting this to go on for?" was posted. Several posters speculated that "this" would last 18 months or longer and others also said there would likely be a war as well. I realise there has been terrible suffering and my mental health has been I impacted. However, rightly or wrongly, the lockdown is significantly eased and plans are being made for a near future which can in no way be described as lockdown. I wondered if any of those who predicted 18 months would like to comment here and perhaps admit that they were wrong. I'm afraid I still see their motivation as primarily to drag others down, so I'm not holding my breath, but neither am I prepared not to call them out. They've ruined MN, and they made an awful awful time worse.

@jackdaw141 yeah that's been proved by

VE Day

Cornish beaches

Primark

BLM Rallies

NOT

Sorry for multiple posts, not sure what happened there!

@Timekeeper1 To me, you are gaslighting the caring and informed posters on here because your motivation is to see death and sickness

Please can you tell me what evidence you have from anything I have written here that my motivation is to see death and sickness? I really am appalled by this response, and I can tell you 100% categorically that you are utterly wrong in this.

This thread has made me giggle. Surely nobody takes notice of stuff on here to any great extent? Just treat it like a trashy magazine you might leaf through at the dentist, no more, no less. The funniest bit was the OK saying MN had been ruined. What, including the baby name threads, the litter tray and everything?

But the bigger outbreak a country has had the more immunity there is likely to be is my hypothesis

Not strictly true.

It depends WHO has caught covid first and WHERE they are.

The pattern in Spain and Italy is different to the UK. This could ultimately have an impact in the long run.

Let me explain.

Italy for example had an outbreak which was highly concentrated in one particular region. This also mean it could be contained more easily to a certain extent when lockdown occurred.

The UK on the other hand had an initial hotspot of London but by the time lockdown occurred it was more widespread meaning it was much harder to stop the spread.

Hospitals / care homes across the UK may have a higher percentage of staff who have antibodies now, so these 'important nodes of contact' may act to slow in another localised outbreak meaning vulnerable people have a better chance going forward compared to countries which have some areas which were significantly less affected by the early part of the pandemic.

It's incredibly unlikely that anyone predicted that full lockdown would last for 18 months, not least because the economy obviously couldn't handle it.

Why is it unlikely?

The answer is right there in the bit you posted.

Gosh can people please stop talking about herd immunity as if they have any idea what that means? I do know what it means. It is not a means of controlling any outbreaks now or in the near future.

It is really misunderstood.

You need quite a high level of immunity to have any effect, and also for that immunity to last some time. 60-70% Which would mean hundreds of thousands would die.

No single place like a care home have 60-70% herd immunity. And only if it was completely sealed off from the outside. Which nowhere is.

Every person visiting or working in a care home also sees their own family, friends, and workplaces. Every hospital too.

Contact track and tracing, very good data, getting on top of any outbreak with quick, effective testing is one of the few ways that can make a huge difference without big social distancing.

Funnily enough the UK has not got a good system yet.

OP - you and others who agree with you. This is a genuine plea. If you hate the lockdown and hate others talking about it - and don’t want to be in any form of it for months - then please put your energy into calling for better contact tracing in the UK. Write a letter to your MP. Write a letter to Boris. Email. Go on twitter.

Put your energies into getting the economy and normal life back on track in a positive, productive way. Don’t just come on here and moan.

OP, Please can you tell me what evidence you have from anything anyone has written on this site over the last several months that our motivation is to drag others down, to ruin MN, and to make an awful time worse? I really am appalled by your OP, and I can tell you 100% categorically that you are utterly wrong in this.

It's interesting you can't see your own attitude and behaviour.

@Socialdistancegintonic

Gosh can people please stop talking about herd immunity as if they have any idea what that means? I do know what it means. It is not a means of controlling any outbreaks now or in the near future.

It is really misunderstood.

You need quite a high level of immunity to have any effect, and also for that immunity to last some time. 60-70% Which would mean hundreds of thousands would die.

No single place like a care home have 60-70% herd immunity. And only if it was completely sealed off from the outside. Which nowhere is.

Every person visiting or working in a care home also sees their own family, friends, and workplaces. Every hospital too.

Contact track and tracing, very good data, getting on top of any outbreak with quick, effective testing is one of the few ways that can make a huge difference without big social distancing.

Funnily enough the UK has not got a good system yet.

OP - you and others who agree with you. This is a genuine plea. If you hate the lockdown and hate others talking about it - and don’t want to be in any form of it for months - then please put your energy into calling for better contact tracing in the UK. Write a letter to your MP. Write a letter to Boris. Email. Go on twitter.

Put your energies into getting the economy and normal life back on track in a positive, productive way. Don’t just come on here and moan.

Very much this.

There is no evidence that herd immunity will be possible. Recent studies show that IgG decrease rapidly after covid. We do not know if other types of immunity are sufficient to be protective long time. We don't know if a new exposure will trigger a sufficient new IgG response, and that may well not even be the best initial response.
We simply do not know enough about this virus. In fact, we don't even know if a vaccine is possible or, if so, how efficient.
Vaccines have been sought for so many diseases without good results.

This is the most bonkers OP and thread I've ever seen on mumsnet.

OP, you either have too much time on your hands on you have too much emotional space in your life. Either way, get off the internet and argue with real people if that's what you want to do.

This is the most bonkers OP and thread I've ever seen on mumsnet.

And that's a pretty big claim. It's definitely top five for me.

The only gaslighting I've seen is from the government.

I love this thread! Utterly ridiculous yet brilliant. Well done, OP.

"You ruined Mumsnet, you must apologise".

YABU to "call out" anyone, ever. Just state your case and move along.

I think they are saying antibodies lasts about 6 months.

I know 3 months after having what we now think was Covid Dd was at a smallish event where every other staff member and most if not all the guests tested positive for Covid about a week or 2 later.
Apart from Dd. She was fine. We were in close contact with her after and we too were fine.

I think at the time we were immune.

Whether we will remain immune or at a lesser risk of getting this disease in the future is the million dollar question.

It's looking like it depends on how ill you were.

I was very very ill, so did Ds.

Dd was ill for about 3 days then was fine.

I'm sorry to hear that.