Where are those who predicted 18 months lockdown now

[AfterAte]

Firstly I realise that the lockdown in England is only being eases not ended. I am also aware that it is entirely possible there will be a second lockdown necessitated by a second spike. Finally, I am aware of and grateful for the sacrifices of those frontline workers, sad for those who have lost loved ones and both aware and grateful for the sacrifices of those who died in the 2 world wars and in other conflicts.

On 21st March on this website a thread entitled "How long are you expecting this to go on for?" was posted. Several posters speculated that "this" would last 18 months or longer and others also said there would likely be a war as well. I realise there has been terrible suffering and my mental health has been I impacted. However, rightly or wrongly, the lockdown is significantly eased and plans are being made for a near future which can in no way be described as lockdown. I wondered if any of those who predicted 18 months would like to comment here and perhaps admit that they were wrong. I'm afraid I still see their motivation as primarily to drag others down, so I'm not holding my breath, but neither am I prepared not to call them out. They've ruined MN, and they made an awful awful time worse.

@AfterAte

Some people are terrified of a second wave, due to their own mental health needs, hence their posts. They may not be “enjoying” it. Are you enjoying this thread and being spiteful to people with clinically diagnosed anxiety disorders?

P.S. I’m in neither camp but giving you another perspective as you seem to think you’re better than those who thought the worst of lockdown?

OP in the last few weeks I've seen actual experts ( so not MN posters) say that we are probably only one tenth of a way through this or that this situation could go on for as long as 4 years!

So 18 months was probably a bit of an underestimate...

You can't know whether everyone who was frightened had actually experienced anything either.

No I can't. But you have to give benefit of the doubt. I'm struggling to see where the benefit of the doubt is in someone who just didn't like MN.

And none of these people were telling everyone else that disagreed with them that they had ruined MN for them either.

But the puzzle is why anyone would attribute greater authority to casual, hyperbolic posts on the internet, than they do to themselves.

One obvious conclusion to be drawn is that OP has very low self-confidence, so relies on others to do her thinking for her; to the extent that she lacks the basic critical thinking skills necessary to distinguish between well-informed posts offering considered statements or conjecture, and speculative posts, sharing passing thoughts and making casual conversation.

That or she's extremely arrogant, also very angry and just gets off on disparaging other people.

You don't think this virus is going away anytime soon do you?

It's not. There's going to be repeated restrictions over the next year, or until they get a vaccine sorted. Have you seen what's happening in the US? Their numbers are exploding.

The 18-monthers are more likely to be nearer the truth. Just because Johnson says that the English lockdown is over, doesn't mean that the virus is going away - it's just that your government has bailed on you.

I tend to agree with chocolate, although I'm not so sure that the government has bailed. It's more that they have put the economy before deaths from CV. Lots of people would agree with that decision.

The predictions of 18 months that I read were more about the time scales for a vaccine and if you only think about preventing deaths from covid 19 then 18 months lock down would be about right.

There have been a wide range of opinions about this virus on here, from "it's just flu" to "we are all doomed". I'm one of life's pessimists and am expecting the worst, but accept that others are not like me. No one needs to apologise for views they had at the beginning of all this when no one had a clue.

@hammeringinmyhead but they didn't even nearly suggest the OP wouldn't see her parents for 18 months. They made an accurate and valid point that we'd be in and out of lockdown for a year or so 🤷🏽‍♀️ talk about trying to make your argument fit. It doesn't with that thread as your example.

OP - who has said we will be in lockdown for 18 months? I haven't seen or heard anyone say that.

As for this @AlexisCarringtonColbyDexter

"NO. They didnt just "get it wrong". They were predicting apocalyptic scenarios, bodies in the streets, ice rinks being temporary mortuaries"

Those things happened. Some people witnessed that, their families were part of it. It was scary and unbelievable to watch those scenes and nobody knew what the virus was. Nobody.

People were scared and couldn't believe their eyes, they discussed their fears (in real life and on here). Some overreacted, some underreacted. We've all learned a lot. So why do you feel the need to shout and use such strong language towards them. You seem to have come through this having people.

Nobody has "scuttled" anywhere. Nobody has been "proved wrong" as you claim, life isn't yet normal in case you haven't noticed. Being "glad" that you feel they were wrong and you feel you were right is downright disgusting tbh. Do you even know where they are now? How far their worries and fears might've taken them? Or don't you care, as long as they don't do their "scuttling" near you? As long as they don't point out the horror that bodies are being stored in ice rinks within your vicinity?

Wow.

Believe me, there is absolutely no enjoyment in thinking realistically that there will be a second wave etc. I really wish I could get that spark, that bit of blind optimism that you speak of, but just like when people were naively thinking it wouldn't amount to anything, I am rational enough to think that can't be the truth.

There really is no enjoyment in thinking that way. There is no trying to bring people down for the sake of it, for the vast majority. That's the way their mind works just like yours works the way it does, trying to grasp on to hope. Maybe blind hope in our eyes.

We all cope in different ways. If some want to use denial as their coping mechanism, that's absolutely fine, except then some people take that too far and then their irresponsible actions endanger others.

The fact that many people are "scared" enough to be still limiting their life massively, actually makes it safer for the more optimistic people. If 100% of us went about life with the same belief that it's been or will continue to be, a big over reaction, then we'd be in a much worse position than we are. Be grateful to those who think more negatively. They are often enabling your less risk adverse approach to life.

Again we all cope in different ways. It would be a lot easier to cope, if I could persuade my mind to be completely optimistic. That would be great, but just because I analyse the data and believe there will be more local lockdown, deaths and thus grief for their relatives, doesn't mean I am deliberately doing it because I get some perverse sense of enjoyment from it. Clearly the compete opposite.

Hating. Not having.

It's a very unhealthy and unappealing look

@youhave4substitutes bodies in the streets happened ? Where ?

@Cheeseislife2020 NYC. The Bronx iirc. A local mortuary was literally overflowing. Onto the street. It was extremely distressing. A woman whose mother was one of them sticks in my mind.

It was covered by Panorama.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3859456-how-long-you-expecting-lockdown-to-last

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3861831-Lockdown-how-long-do-you-think-this-will-go-on-for

I don't know why people are denying anyone ever said lockdown would last up to 18 months.

Quite a few did. That's just a quick Google. There were more on other threads.

@Cheeseislife2020 also in Ecuador. I'm not sure of other countries, these are just two places I can think of where that happened. Hope that clears it up a bit for you.

It's not outlandish to think people might've panicked. It's vile that they are being so heavily hated on by so called "anti-dementors" though

@ICouldBeTheOne on that thread one person says 12/18 months. They don't specify whether they think that's "lockdown" or some form of distancing etc.

Everyone else says they think it'll be 3-18 months before "normal" resumes. The experts say the same. So far they are on track to be right 🤷🏽‍♀️

because there are people who enjoy extinguishing any life enjoyment in other people. There is a special enjoyment for some of these in looking for sparks of hope and optimism and gleefully trampling them down.

You have to acknowledge OP that your post is hardly painting you as any better than the people you’re talking about. Your entire thread is one big judge about how you disagree with how others perceived the situation, wanting to police their words and getting arsey because they haven’t come and apologised to you (regardless of whether anyone feels they owe you one).

You could have posted something to spread happiness and positivity and joy and optimism but you went for this instead.

You have little self awareness I think.

Some of these posters probably wanted to gain the kudos of bigging themselves up as having had both the insight to see things as they are and the gumption to say an unpalatable truth when in fact they have been disseminating fear and sadness at a time of total and near universal misery.

Actually, for a great many of us this hasn't been a time of universal misery and you really should limit your comments to your own experience. The first three months of lockdown were wonderful for me and my household and others I know. That includes several people who were scared of being on their own for so long and have come through it surprised at how much they came to appreciate time out.

I'm glad you mentioned that you have acknowledged MH issues, otherwise I'd be suggesting you seek help. Being so judgmental and punitive can only add to your misery.

I'd say that not only will it be probably be 18 months before we're back to something like 'normality' but that unless a reliable vaccine can be found we may never return to what we knew.

This is a discussion site. People are free to voice their opinions. Or predictions. Those who think its all over and lockdown has been unnecessary are more dangerous, imo, because they'll be the ones not taking proper precautions, not wearing masks on public transport, been having clandestine parties at home for months etc. They will be the ones creating the second wave.
I've had my doubts that it hasn't been as bad as it was predicted - I only know of one close contact who has caught it (survived but still in hospital and will likely be left with life-changing damage). But then I look at America and Brazil where the leaders have tried to minimalise its seriousness. I don't think the UK have handled it brilliantly, though some things were done well. If we'd started lockdown earlier, and dealt with care homes efficiently, we might have been closer to the predicted 20,000 deaths. But we've had double that and climbing.
Look at Leicester. Garment workers illegally kept working in close conditions under fear of being sacked. The anti-lockdown people are nutters.

They were predicting apocalyptic scenarios, bodies in the streets, ice rinks being temporary mortuaries

Those things happened. Some people witnessed that, their families were part of it.

What apocalyptic things happened?

Interesting post Twillow so people are allowed to have opinions but anyone who disagrees with you is a nutter

Time will tell what impact lockdown had. We have no idea where New Zealand for example will be in 12 months.

Oh I didn't realise we were discussing worldwide examples.

bodies in the streets happened ? Where ?

It was also happening in Ecuador and was widely reported.

There was a make shift mortuary on an ice rink Madrid. So it wasn't an unrealistic scenario to happen here.

The reason we didn't see the same pattern here, is possibly because we didn't see the outbreak concerntrated in one singular area to the same extent as was the case around the rest of the world. We had a peak in London, but this peak wasn't as significantly large as in NYC nor Bergamot for example.

This doesn't mean we some how 'escaped' the worst of it. Indeed the fact that the outbreak in the uk was more spread out, created its own issues and meant we weren't able to divert resources like PPE to the most badly affected areas in the same way (and might have been the reason we had more deaths overall) than for example Italy.

The idea that 'we were lucky' because we didn't have bodies in the street nor make shift mortuaries is a bit misleading. We simply had a different pattern of the virus.

I don't think we will now see this repeated in the UK, but we do face some alternative potential problems with regards to future localised outbreaks because we have a particularly high rate of economic inequality compared to other parts of Europe and because our track and trace system is 'less refined' than in many other countries.

It was covered by Panorama.

Who are well known for their balanced, non sensationalist reporting

Ah I see, in Ecuador, ok then. Well if a poster had started their thread by stating they were in Ecuador and explained the circumstances there, I’m sure no one would have told them their fears were unfounded.

But to worry about those things from your four bed detached in Hertfordshire is a bit different, no?

If we'd started lockdown earlier, and dealt with care homes efficiently, we might have been closer to the predicted 20,000 deaths

Care homes where undoubtedly a fiasco. I wasn't against lockdown but understand that the economy can also impact lives. When & how should we have started it earlier?

Let's face it, lockdown is over. What we have now is social distancing.

Also why does it have to be total lockdown, sky high anxiety fearing for your life versus corona denying anti-lockdowners? Why so extreme ? Can’t people have an opinion that it is good to cautiously lift restrictions whilst keeping good hygiene and awareness in place and hoping for the best whilst knowing it could potentially not work out for the best ? Or is rational thinking not allowed ?