Where are those who predicted 18 months lockdown now

[AfterAte]

Firstly I realise that the lockdown in England is only being eases not ended. I am also aware that it is entirely possible there will be a second lockdown necessitated by a second spike. Finally, I am aware of and grateful for the sacrifices of those frontline workers, sad for those who have lost loved ones and both aware and grateful for the sacrifices of those who died in the 2 world wars and in other conflicts.

On 21st March on this website a thread entitled "How long are you expecting this to go on for?" was posted. Several posters speculated that "this" would last 18 months or longer and others also said there would likely be a war as well. I realise there has been terrible suffering and my mental health has been I impacted. However, rightly or wrongly, the lockdown is significantly eased and plans are being made for a near future which can in no way be described as lockdown. I wondered if any of those who predicted 18 months would like to comment here and perhaps admit that they were wrong. I'm afraid I still see their motivation as primarily to drag others down, so I'm not holding my breath, but neither am I prepared not to call them out. They've ruined MN, and they made an awful awful time worse.

@Timekeeper1
Mon 06-Jul-20 12:57:00

I think it is the selfish denialists in society who have done irreparable damage. Not those who CARE and want people to be SAFE and informed. What are the motives of the denialists? Where are all the denialists now? Quiet and hiding

Well said.

I don't think the deniers are all quiet and hiding though.

@Teateaandmoretea
The USA isn’t evidence at all. They had smaller outbreaks previously so lower immunity.

What does this even mean?

Cheese that's a shocking mindset and no, I've not met anyone who thinks like that. I do know they exist though, I've encountered them online.

Oh, yes, they’re on MN. Quite happy to remain in lockdown forever and talk about the need to prioritise lives over “the economeeeeeee”.

.

another has not been out since Feb and has now declared she has ‘lost all confidence’ going outside

Dp who was staying in because of health issues was quite scared to make the initial steps outside.
This is a guy who in December was going to work in the City everyday and had no issues about going anywhere and everywhere.

Even he knew it was ridiculous that he felt that way.

It took him about a week of him just driving out and sitting in his car to get over his fear.

Speaking of apocalyptic scenes, a documentary about the New York impact had some unusual sights. An undertaker who hired lots of U-haul trailers and parked them in the street outside his shop, loading them up with the bodies he didn't have space for on the premises. Neighbours apparently complaining about the smell. He was desparately phoning crematoriums in the countryside to take bodies off his hands, as they were piling up faster than they could be cremated in the city. Footage showed a large van with several bodies packaged in cardboard coffins being unloaded into a countryside crematorium, like a giant DHL delivery.

What does this even mean?

It means quite clearly that the U.K. had a larger outbreak than Arizona during March-June. Therefore we have higher levels of immunity in the population. Before you point out there is no evidence that this will help there is no evidence it won’t either

And the UK immunity is underestimated there is actual evidence that people are not susceptible who test negative for antibodies.

The USA isn’t evidence at all. They had smaller outbreaks previously so lower immunity. Quite simply no one knows what will happen in the UK, I’d have thought places like the Netherlands were a better indicator than Arizona but hey ho.

No where in the World has achieved herd immunity teatea. Real herd immunity would kill many times more people than have already died. The US is an example of out of control infection in places that didn't do enough to stop it happening. The US wasn't doing all that badly until the states who listen to Trump decided that they would open up come what may. It's only the start of how disastrous that is going to be.

Coronavirus is not going away. As soon as people start moving again it’s coming back. The more people mingle the greater it will come back.

Herd immunity does not exist.

No where in the World has achieved herd immunity

I didn’t say that they had. But the more immunity you have the less likely uncontrolled outbreaks are. Show me the evidence that says otherwise.

Herd immunity does not exist.

Evidence please

So much drama.
OP, maybe you should wait the full 18 months before you start demanding retractions and apologies. This isn't done yet.

Ok tea you find me any reporting that tells us that there is herd immunity? I mean one single credible source. I can find lots that say we are no where near it anywhere in the World. We don't even know if those with the antibodies are immune and for how long.

I haven't read all of this but it looks interesting:

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198238/declines-covid-19-cases-herd-immunity-says/

I haven’t said there is herd immunity. I have said that no one knows if it is possible or not.

www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

Scientists right now only have hypotheses they are testing. They do not have facts. They do not fully understand the role T-cells play. But the bigger outbreak a country has had the more immunity there is likely to be is my hypothesis.

I was listening to a scientist today that said research has suggested that CV has mutated to be more easily passed on to other people. There are numerous reports about it too.

It means quite clearly that the U.K. had a larger outbreak than Arizona during March-June. Therefore we have higher levels of immunity in the population. Before you point out there is no evidence that this will help there is no evidence it won’t either

Dd we think brought it home in early December after working at an event that had a lot of Chinese nationals who came for the weekend.

She then passed it on to the rest of us through out December and January.

She then worked an event in March with mainly Italians who had come over for the event.
Her agency then contacted her to see if she was ok as all the staff and guests had tested positive for COVID. She was the only one not to get ill.
We think that she was immune having had what we think was Covid in December.

But our cases have dropped

Sweden went for herd immunity with the resulting deaths and even that has been hard going and is not even close to herd immunity. It has been generally acknowledged to have been a mistake.

I wonder how places like Brazil and places where there has been no lockdown/SD etc will fare in the coming months/year.
As opposed to places like NZ where it has not been allowed to develop and the borders are effectively shut.

Cases might have dropped but not to the extent that we will be free of the disease by the time the bad weather is upon us and we are cooped up indoors.

@Teateaandmoretea

Herd immunity does not exist.

Evidence please

Her you go. Freshly laid today.

edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/spain-coronavirus-antibody-study-lancet-intl/index.html

If coronoavirus was nothing to be concerned about, then why is the world more concerned about this virus than anything I have ever seen in my lifetime (which is rather long).

@Teateaandmoretea

But our cases have dropped

So has Trumps ratings.

@Teateaandmoretea

I haven’t said there is herd immunity. I have said that no one knows if it is possible or not.

www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

Scientists right now only have hypotheses they are testing. They do not have facts. They do not fully understand the role T-cells play. But the bigger outbreak a country has had the more immunity there is likely to be is my hypothesis.

Your hypothesis, on an anonymous forum, is worthless.

If you are a real expert, then contact MNHQ and reveal who you are and let us have a live Q&A session with you. Or go and make a cup of tea.

Lancet, published today 6th July 2020

Despite the high impact of COVID-19 in Spain, prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity. This cannot be achieved without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems. In this situation, social distance measures and efforts to identify and isolate new cases and their contacts are imperative for future epidemic control.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

It means quite clearly that the U.K. had a larger outbreak than Arizona during March-June. Therefore we have higher levels of immunity in the population. Before you point out there is no evidence that this will help there is no evidence it won’t either

@Teateaandmoretea
So in other words, your categorical statement of fact - "we have higher levels of immunity in the population" - is merely an opinion?