What is evidence for carrying on?
We had exponential growth in cases leading to a huge impact on the NHS as well as 20,000 deaths,
That exponential increase has slowed and gone into decline following lockdown
We know that only a small percentage of people have had the illness so the only thing stopping a rapidly occurring exponential growth is the lockdown
We know that although rate of transmission has slowed, there are still many thousands of infected people in society ( thousands, not the millions needed for immunity, not the millions that would get it without any action)
Therefore we know if we remove lockdown we will be straight back to exponential growth and in only a few weeks we will have an overrun NHS again...back to the start
We have all the evidence we need to see that removal of lockdown can not take place until. R0 is below 1 and can be kept there , which in turn requires test and trace , which in turn requires a low number of active cases in society.
If we stay in a few extra weeks now, we stand a chance of avoiding more lockdowns, each would be at least as long as this, because we would have gone backwards.
So if we come out early we have to do everything we have done again and then some more to get to where we need to be
Or we could just do the some more bit
So come out of lockdown and then in a few weeks do everything we have done plus some more
Or stay where we are, and just do the some more bit
I prefer the option with the smallest amount of time spent in lockdown.
Think of it like snakes and ladders. Climbing a ladder is hard work. But jumping down a snake loses you the game