Labour is right to demand an exit strategy

[Goldenheart18]

This lockdown has removed (I hope temporarily) our basic human rights. I get that it was done to ensure that the NHS could cope with the surge of coronavirus cases. But after 4 weeks the government has confirmed that the NHS is coping, and that it does have capacity for more cases. Yet they won’t even slightly ease the lockdown restrictions, or even give any indication as to how long they will last, or which ones might be eased up first. More importantly they won’t explain what their plan is for getting us back to some kind of normality.

Surely by this point , after 4 weeks, the government should have had a workable plan for exiting the lockdown, given that the longer it goes on the greater the damage to the economy. They keep saying that the science will inform when they lift the restrictions. But that makes no sense. Even if they get new cases down to zero as soon as we exit they will go right back up again. Surely the rate of infection is only part of the issue. The main one is how do we keep the rate of infection low once we leave lockdown (which has to be to be temporary if we do not want an economic depression).

It seems likely that any workable exit plan depends on testing and contact tracing. But where is the government on achieving any of that in the next 3 - 4 weeks? If they don’t publish their exit plan they cannot be held to account for whether or not they are putting in place the right measures to achieve it. And that’s why they absolutely should be open with the public now about what their plans are.

We have just gone through years and years of austerity as a country where poverty and homelessness has surged. We cannot afford another Great Depression.

Aibu?

So, person x contacts the media and says “you can’t open schools until at least September, because my opinion is that that is too soon.” And then Y contacts the media and says “The schools need to open after May half term because it’s my opinion that this should be the case to save my business.” And that would be in response to what? I didn't suggest that the govt should say, "Send us your suggestions."

So to use the school example the govt could say, "We are concerned about children's education and there are a number of things we can consider, one might be opening in June to give children a chance to end the year with their classmates and prepare for transitions in September but of course this does come with a risk but we think with social distancing this is a real possibility." Teachers then say, "That just won't work, apart from expecting children as young as 4 to respect social distancing the classrooms just aren't big enough." Govt think about that and say, "OK we hear what the experts are saying (teachers obviously know more about how a classroom works than anyone else) so we would still like to have some sort of ending to the school year so we are considering schools opening with two sessions a day, am and pm, and only having half the children attending lessons at a time making social distancing more realistic. Obviously support for keyworkers children would continue." Teachers think that is worth a try, parents appreciate the chance for children to get some education and ending the year whilst minimising risk. Plan for return to school is agreed with the proviso that infection rates will go below x before it is implemented.

Don't you think that is better than waiting till late May, govt announces children WILL go back to school in June. Parents worried, teachers saying, "How the hell do we manage social distancing." and chaos ensues?

If you lift lockdown early that is what will happen and then we will be put back into lockdown in 2 weeks time for a longer period. Sorry, where did the OP say there should be an early end to lockdown?

Smilethoyourheartisbreaking do you get the feeling some people are answering posts that we can't see for some reason?

There have only been 11 deaths of the under 45s and all had underlying conditions.

Let the under 45s go back to work and keep the over 70s in lockdown. Those between 45 and 70 and those with underlying conditions can choose whether they want to self isolate or return to the real world. The vast majority of over 70s live off pension incomes so this isn’t affecting them financially. The under 45s tend to have the least accrued wealth, I don’t think this is worth the financial damage that is happening to the under 45s.

Because if they give you any inclination of what they're going to do and then change it or say they say if we get deaths down to 100 a day then we'll start letting you out, if they get new scientific evidence that their 1st plan is wrong or if deaths get down to 101 a day people will start pushing the envelope or saying 'but you said'.

They basically can't trust you people who have made yourselves into world class scientists over the last 2 months to do WTF you're told.

If we keep the lockdown for too long e,g until the end of the summer there is a risk that the next increase in cases will happen when winter flu arrives and when hospitals are under huge pressures anyway
It's a fine balance as the lockdown was never about stopping people getting Coronavirus but about spreading it out to ensure resources could cope
If the lockdown goes on too long there is a risk that the NHS will be overwhelmed in October November time onwards which would be catastrophic because at some point routine services within health will have to restart
It is a timing conundrum so hence needs good planning and robust examination by independent experts

You are being somewhat unreasonable when you demand a plan, because a plan will say "on 32nd Octember, schools will reopen. On 9th Decuary, Supermarkets will remove controls."

However, Labour on not being unreasonable when they ask for a Strategy, because a strategy will say, for example: "First step, increase Infection testing to 100,000 per day. Second step, obtain an Immunuity test. Third step, when people confirmed Immune reach five million, ask them to return, or move, to work in (certain specified key areas), while avoiding contact with non-immune people. And so on.

A strategy need not include dates. But it should lay out what steps we intend to take to dig ourselves out of this hole.

Of course we need a strategy.

It must not say "avoid all awkward questions and hope something turns up."

1forsorrow or their inherent belief systems ensure they are blind. This is how Gilead was created. Fear Scary indeed.

Loo suggestion may help, but you must remember that people live in households and I. Household transmission is pretty high, so the only people who could roam free would be the under 40s with no underlying health issues who do not live with anyone over 40 or with an underlying health condition

And you would still need to check that the hospitals could cope with the numbers needing critical care support

Let the under 45s go back to work and keep the over 70s in lockdown Good luck with that, I think if you tell over 70s that they are in indefinite detention (solidtary for many of them) for no other reason than their age I think you might see a wartime spirit you aren't expecting. Advice might work but "keep them in lockdown" I don't think so.

Yes PigletJ.

@1forsorrow where did the OP say there should be an early end to lockdown?

She used the argument the beds are available. My argument is if we lifted lock down early because of this fact then we'd have issues

As if the government is just ignoring an exit strategy, really!!?? Of course they are working on it, probably working on multiple options.

But if they announce it and then that turns out not to be the way to go they'll be dragged over the coals again for "getting it wrong".

I dont understand why not announcing it until they know exactly what and when it will be is treating the public like children? Ffs, if you think this you should be treated like children because you clearly are missing the point.

There are so many variables that need to be considered, that need to be figured out. Other countries are only just starting to come out of lockdown. Would it not be more sensible to watch them for a couple of weeks and allow that to help make an informed decision.

Labour are just terrified that they're not being heard so are bleating on about a load of useless complaints. No doubt the Tories dropped a big damn ball at the start of this, but they're now in the position where no matter what they do someone will hate their choice.

The governments figure of R is unreliable as they have no idea how many cases we have, as we are not doing enough testing.
Thier figures in relation to cases are based on hospital admissions and now Include some care homes.
Not based on figures of how many in the community have it or have had it.

They will not discuss and exit strategy as they have no idea when we will be exiting lockdown and what position will be in at that time.

Could they stand up and give thier planned exit strategy for the different positions we potentially could be in when they decide to relax it, I don't believe they could as I dont believe they have any ideas of when or how they are going to deal with it.

Some people may feel less anxious knowing some kind of plan is in place, but, with this government, I just dont think they can.

The media should push the government and make them accountable for thier decisions and keep pushing when the answer given is ambiguous or drivel.

@1forsorrow

Fine, the over 70s are most at risk (of the illness) so if they don’t want to stay in lockdown they don’t have to but it’s their choice to take that risk.

The under 45s are least at risk of the illness but most at risk financially.

There needs to be a balance.

Why do people think that empty beds means that the NHS can cope. NHS staff are dying, they dont have the correct PPE, volunteers are sewing bed sheets into scrubs so they hospitals have enough of them, we have 99 year old man raising money to help fund them (whoever's said keep the over 70s in lockdown - shame on you). The beds are empty because we were able to build a hospital at a conference centre in a matter of days. Operations have been cancelled, treatment for conditions have been limited, mental health services have taken a back seat. If this is the NHS coping then I hate to see the alternative.
We are behind other Countries in terms of lockdown, those Countries spent longer in lockdown and yet hear Labour is putting out there that we need an exit strategy. How about doing something constructive instead of playing the politics game. Would people here like a Donald Trump approach?
Our lockdown needs to continue so that we can ensure we do not go through another wave as bad as this. Maybe a little further down the line we can start talking exit strategies, they are probably going analysis right now and going through different scenarios by watching other Countries.

Fine, the over 70s are most at risk (of the illness) so if they don’t want to stay in lockdown they don’t have to but it’s their choice to take that risk. And that is fine but that wasn't what was said was it. Keeping people in lockdown suggests they don't have a choice. I am married to a bloodyminded 70+ year old and I can just imagine him and his mates reacting to being told everyone else was free to go and they were being "kept" in lockdown. Give people advice but to single certain people out to be detained is not what happens in a democracy unless you are talking about criminals.

Labour is in such an amazing position right now.

They haven't got to make any decision or find any solution, they can just criticise, attack every single thing that is being done and shout for improvement.

With insights, Labour will have kilos of complaints and criticisms about how the situation is handled today.

They must be so over the moon to have avoided being in charge, and celebrating every single day.

It's not like anyone else ever would have thought about exit strategies without them howling about it.

@1forsorrow

I didn’t say detained. I said lockdown. I’m in the U.K. and our lockdown is different to other countries. No one is being detained.

The OP has not asked to lift the lockdown but an exit plan. Not the same thing at all

This. Can people not have an adult discussion about the pros and cons of an exit strategy being published without people crying ‘people are dying’ ??
We know people are dying. And this is an emotive subject. But trying to discuss it in a rational way shouldn’t lead to people thinking that person is being callous.

And to the people who think that the stupid among us will just ‘start doing the wrong thing’ immediately after an a it strategy is announced - that strategy doesn’t have to include anything specific about the way people move or visit relatives etc. It can contain only measures that people can’t control... I.e. when these 5 things happen, we will first look to re-open some schools... or we will first look to re-open certain retail outlets ... or offices below a certain amount can re-open...
People can’t send their kids back to school until they’re open again, can they? They don’t even really need to put a date on it... they can use their ‘consistent fall in deaths’ measure etc etc

@Ethelfleda my issue is with the fact OP is moaning because there are spare hospital beds therefore why hasn't discussions started about lifetime lockdown.
If they didn't have enough beds or they were full to breaking point can you imagine the backlash.