Labour is right to demand an exit strategy

[Goldenheart18]

This lockdown has removed (I hope temporarily) our basic human rights. I get that it was done to ensure that the NHS could cope with the surge of coronavirus cases. But after 4 weeks the government has confirmed that the NHS is coping, and that it does have capacity for more cases. Yet they won’t even slightly ease the lockdown restrictions, or even give any indication as to how long they will last, or which ones might be eased up first. More importantly they won’t explain what their plan is for getting us back to some kind of normality.

Surely by this point , after 4 weeks, the government should have had a workable plan for exiting the lockdown, given that the longer it goes on the greater the damage to the economy. They keep saying that the science will inform when they lift the restrictions. But that makes no sense. Even if they get new cases down to zero as soon as we exit they will go right back up again. Surely the rate of infection is only part of the issue. The main one is how do we keep the rate of infection low once we leave lockdown (which has to be to be temporary if we do not want an economic depression).

It seems likely that any workable exit plan depends on testing and contact tracing. But where is the government on achieving any of that in the next 3 - 4 weeks? If they don’t publish their exit plan they cannot be held to account for whether or not they are putting in place the right measures to achieve it. And that’s why they absolutely should be open with the public now about what their plans are.

We have just gone through years and years of austerity as a country where poverty and homelessness has surged. We cannot afford another Great Depression.

Aibu?

No one is saying that the lockdown should be lifted but I think there needs to be robust discussion about how it is lifted and what the strategy is
Given how bumbling, unplanned and shambolic things have been thus far surely its better to have plans formulated and examined well in advance of being needed?

Although Singapore and South Korea have a few problems, they know why they have the problem and are in a good position to keep death rates low and get some kind of normality back quickly. They are still much more controlled than we are because of the way they have managed this from the start.

We need towards that kind of approach , yes there will be set backs until we have solid treatment or vaccines but there is no need to either despair or be smug or fatalistic

Oh and fuck off with all the
"Don't you know people are dying" comments
No shit Sherlock
But a lot of them are dying because of the lack of planning and organisation at the start of this
Surely we need a systematic scrutinised exit strategy

How can you publish an exit strategy when we havent yet got one? It depends on what progress we make this next 3 weeks. Political parties should bury their usual behaviour and pull together

You can plan for possible futures. You need to plan for a a range of possible futures , because the future is not under our control, we don't know the future and in the current circumstances predictions will only have a low chance of being accurate.

It would be pointless until there is information from countries ahead of us. Until we see how things pan out in Wuhan for example, how is anyone meant to make an informed suggestion as to the "right" exit strategy?

It has recently come to my knowledge that the countries that were worst hit by SARS etc invested a lot of omeny in preparing for the next pandemic and were therfore ready to go the minute it hit

But we know at some point there will be a peak
And at some point we will need to exit
So the top brains need to get their heads together now and start looking at options
Not in 6 weeks time and then leaving the politicians to throw something together
And actually the more people understand why they need to do something and what the consequences of their actions are the more likely they are to comply

@hobnobsaremyfave
Nice logical grown up language. Shall we take your comments seriously?

Making an exit strategy now would just be more foolishness. We have had enough of foolish government.

Making it as late as possible gives us the best chance of getting a good strategy

Because we aren't children, this is having a serious effect on our lives and we should be part of the discussion, we are supposed to be a democracy unless your MP is a minister you aren't actually being represented. This govt has made some serious mistakes, one or more of them saying what sort of things are being discussed would give us the opportunity to contact them or the media and say, "No." that won't work, we don't want that or whatever.
So, person x contacts the media and says “you can’t open schools until at least September, because my opinion is that that is too soon.” And then Y contacts the media and says “The schools need to open after May half term because it’s my opinion that this should be the case to save my business.”

That’s just a snapshot, so whose decision should be taken on board? The one who shouts the loudest? Regardless of whether or not it will work.

You only have to look at the Brexit voting and the recent general election to see that actually no, the public really don’t have the answers.

But a lot of them are dying because of the lack of planning and organisation at the start of this
Surely we need a systematic scrutinised exit strategy

If you make a "systematic scrutinised exit strategy" based on nothing it is just as bad as your accusations of bad plan/organisation. At the moment, they have nothing to go on.

Yes Smile, as our current debacle shows.

I’m just a lay person, but I think what is likely to happen is something along the lines of this -

After this three weeks, small businesses encouraged to reopen but with social distancing guidelines. Cafes/restaurants, for example, to have x amount of distance between tables and a cap on numbers allowed in.

Schools to be allowed to reopen, perhaps at their own discretion, for the last half term of the school year. This may well mean that more private than state schools reopen, but it gives the heads of each school to look at the safety of its staff etc.

Travel ban within the U.K. lifted over the traditional school holidays and into September, but no foreign travel. This will give a boost to the U.K. economy as everyone will be desperate for a holiday and it will give a massive morale boost too, ready for...

What is probably an inevitable second wave of infection October/November and another mini lockdown.

Nora I'm pretty sure they could copy and paste from the ones published by other governments.

Please tell me you’re not being serious.

Actually a huge reason for the numbers of deaths has been down to a lot of differing factors.

91% of deaths have been in people with underlying health conditions many of whom were already in hospital and were potentially going to die anyway. That’s obviously not of any comfort to anyone who has lost someone but it is a reality of the situation.

In Italy many of the deaths have been down to the fact that they have a more elderly population.

We need to look at the difference between infections and deaths because the numbers of infections still remains high although is starting to go down.

And just because the government haven’t published an exit strategy doesn’t mean that they don’t have one. But because it’s so changeable they can’t make details known yet. This is why the measures are reviewed every three weeks, because three weeks is a realistic timeline for things to improve.

Yes, my university is involved in modelling impacts. I don't have much faith in the link between academic research and government action though. Factors of the ballot box, legacy and personality seem more important.

Do bear in mind that Wuhan was in lockdown for almost three months, and even now the restrictions are only gradually being lifted.

people talk about how we should have done things like China, and when our lockdown hasn’t been lifted in a quarter of that time are saying that the government are getting it all wrong and should give us the powers to decide.

Which is it then? People either want the government to take a leaf out of China’s book or they are happy for the government to do what they, the people want even though they, the people’s motivations are purely personal.

It’s too early for an exit plan. They need to do three things first. 1. Immunity mapping (they need to figure out whether they can reasonably test for immunity, whether full immunity is achievable with this virus). 2. Treatment plans, if drug trails currently in progress show promising results this will affect things. 3. Contact tracing - they need to develop the cobra to tracing adds and consider the legal implications of mandatory registration/lockdown exemption on the basis of registration. All these things will become clearer over the next three weeks at which point it may be possible to start creating a reliable exit plan.

It’s too early for an exit plan

You've just given an exit plan

YABU.
If they tell us an exit strategy now, over the next 3 weeks unforseen things could happen, or there could be new information coming out of research. So the original plan would have to be altered.
People labour supporters would then be complaining about the govt not sticking to it's promises.

I think you're being unreasonable to be honest.

Just because the NHS have excess beds at the moment does not mean that they could cope if they because full. If you lift lockdown early that is what will happen and then we will be put back into lockdown in 2 weeks time for a longer period. In this respect getting it done now should reduce the overall time we would have to do it to the same months rather than a month here and there.
It really isn't loosing your basic human rights, you have lots of things you can still do and are allowed out the house to do shopping, exercise etc. You will however not be able to do these things if your dead...
Ask yourself this - if you got ill or a family member got ill and the NHS couldn't help you because they had run out of beds would you be angry.
If the answer is yes surely you'd rather they have beds to spare then being full to the brim.