Labour is right to demand an exit strategy

[Goldenheart18]

This lockdown has removed (I hope temporarily) our basic human rights. I get that it was done to ensure that the NHS could cope with the surge of coronavirus cases. But after 4 weeks the government has confirmed that the NHS is coping, and that it does have capacity for more cases. Yet they won’t even slightly ease the lockdown restrictions, or even give any indication as to how long they will last, or which ones might be eased up first. More importantly they won’t explain what their plan is for getting us back to some kind of normality.

Surely by this point , after 4 weeks, the government should have had a workable plan for exiting the lockdown, given that the longer it goes on the greater the damage to the economy. They keep saying that the science will inform when they lift the restrictions. But that makes no sense. Even if they get new cases down to zero as soon as we exit they will go right back up again. Surely the rate of infection is only part of the issue. The main one is how do we keep the rate of infection low once we leave lockdown (which has to be to be temporary if we do not want an economic depression).

It seems likely that any workable exit plan depends on testing and contact tracing. But where is the government on achieving any of that in the next 3 - 4 weeks? If they don’t publish their exit plan they cannot be held to account for whether or not they are putting in place the right measures to achieve it. And that’s why they absolutely should be open with the public now about what their plans are.

We have just gone through years and years of austerity as a country where poverty and homelessness has surged. We cannot afford another Great Depression.

Aibu?

strawberry2017 Agree, it sends mixed messages to release an exit strategy, better to wait

We could also learn from other countries, what works and what doesn’t- as we are behind other countries

But having licked down later, meaning it already infected more, this could mean we are licked down for longer as have higher infection rates

Other countries are talking about strict testing on coming out of lockdown, so you can follow infections and isolate, but seeing as we haven’t managed that in lock down not sure we would or could

YY to the pp who said people will misinterpret. There has been much talk today in here about the 'new rules' regarding going to a friends house for a few days if needed due to dv. This is not a new rule. Nothing was changed, just clarified. If exit strategy dates and details are published people WILL misunderstand, misrepresent and mislead. The gov will be fucking crucified if they change anything as more data presents itself. People will book holidays and want compensation when they can't go. There'll be sad face stories in the DM about little jonny who was promised a birthday party and the nasty old government lied to him. The best experts can't agree on how this will play out so how are politicians with no medical training meant to know?

Well I actually don’t think an exit strategy is that complicated at all. They need to get the infection rate down low, and then they need to have put things in place to allow regular mass testing and fast contact tracing and isolation. What is complicated is working out the logistics and cost of all of this. That will take time and planning. That is what they should be doing right now, before the public start losing patience and protest against the lockdown conditions. However by not disclosing any of this the government gives no assurance that they have even started to plan for the mass testing/contact tracing that is no doubt necessary to ensure that the coronavirus cases stay at a manageable level and the economy survives. If they come out of this just telling people that they can go
about their business as normal now that the infection rates are low within a matter of a few months the infection rate will have increased to unmanageable levels again and the economy won’t be able to withstand a second lockdown. It’s foolish to think that the 2 m rule is workable once lockdown is released. It isn’t. Not in a country of our size with such a large population.
We need testing and contact tracing and the government needs a plan for how they are going to implement that. By not going public now they cannot be held to account for not properly considering it.

So, my provisional plan would look something like this:-

1. Wait for deaths to fall as close to zero as we're going to get.. Probably end of June at the earliest, though it could easily be several months later than that.
2. Shops etc allowed to re-open, people allowed to leave their house, but:-
3. Anyone in a situation where they can't help being within 6 feet of other people to wear a mask
4. Everyone to use the smartphone app to trace their contacts when they are out and tell them to self-isolate when necessary
5. People who can work from home to continue to do so probably for the next year or two
6. Probably children all return to school in September, but I would at least consider the possibility of learning from home for as many as possible, for the next year or three. (But I'm probably overlooking that this would only be viable for a small minority, just because it would work for me.) I understand the official advice is that it actually makes little difference to spread whether or not children go to school, but I find that a little hard to understand.

@southsideowl
We see countless posts on here about people either trying to find loopholes to go out or slagging off people for not following the rules and pictures in the press.
I've literally only left my house to see the consultant at the hospital/ midwife so haven't seen it myself but I was basing my comment on what's on here on a day to day basis, what I'm seeing on local sites to me and in the press.

@SouthsideOwl my neighbours are currently having another gathering over the fence. This has been a regular occurrence since the lockdown. Even though they are both in their own gardens there is no social distancing taking place.

I'm sure they do have numerous possible strategies and options in the planning stage by the way. I really don't think they're just hoping to cone out blinking in the late summer sun with a vaccine so hurrah. But telling average Joe he can go to the pub in three weeks and then taking that away? Nope.

Obviously part of using the app is there would have to be testing. Not sure if/when they will have testing capacity.

I never thought that I would in a million years agree with anyone who started a post with "Labour is right".

I'm agreeing with @Goldenheart18, though.

At the moment, anyone would get my vote if they could come up with a way out of the hellhole that is lockdown.

We don't even know what the world is going to look like months from now. Are we going to have open borders and airlines flying if tens of thousands of people a day are dying in other countries?

They need an exit strategy, fast, or the economy will be a smouldering ruin. It’s patronising nonsense to say they can’t tell us anything because we wouldn’t understand. People are already getting antsy and there is capacity in the NHS. By the end of this three week period, they have to get things moving again. If some people want to stay in their houses forever, fill your boots. Everyone else can get back out there.

Lucky you, @strawberry2017, to have seen a consultant. I have been discharged by telephone (having previously received an appointment letter) without seeing anyone "because of Covid", although I am crying with pain every day, and have been doing so since this all started.

But they have to go by the science; that changes rapidly all the time.

It's not responsible at all to set out an exit strategy, not at all, when the message here and now is to stay at home.

Quite the obsession with the exit strategy from the left is bewildering to me.

Also you say it's about your " human rights " being on lockdown.

Ffs. This is a global pandemic. Felt across the world by everyone.

People are dying worldwide and here's you unhappy being asked to stay at home to protect yourself and your fellow citizens to ultimately ease the pressure on the NHS, yet this is about you and your human rights?

Seriously. Give your head a wobble OP.

Oh, and I lost my job and income.

And I have teenagers at home who should be doing CGSEs and A levels, seeing their friends, having summer jobs, etc.

Other than that, the lockdown is jolly good fun.

Absolutely ridiculous to ask for a public exit strategy at a point when their focus should be reducing the amount of deaths, supporting the NHS and our KWs and how to help the most vulnerable. For those who are naive to believe that most people are following the rules- seriously look at FB, NO they are not. Prime example is the dhol players playing for clapforNHS at the hospital, wonderful gesture but they drew a crowd of hundreds of people who were standing shoulder to shoulder. Publish an exit strategy before we get the rest of this right - extremely bad idea.

@MegUffin Am I supposed to give my head a wobble, too?

Will that magic a job, an income, qualifications and security for my DC, good mental health for me?

If so, I'll gladly just wobble.

Or perhaps it's not that easy.

They need an exit plan but it can't be too rigid. If in 3 weeks the level of infection hasn't dropped they will need to re-evaluate our position and stay in lockdown.

@cantata I'm so sorry to hear that. I've found out today that my husband is classed as high risk and has to isolate for 12 weeks so won't be able to attend the birth in 3 weeks.
It's a shit time right now. Sending you lots of love and strength. X

Meg, I guess that the left is interested in an exit strategy because they know that a severe economic recession will hit the working and lower middle classes the hardest, and they are not in a position to protect themselves from it. It is they who will suffer the most from mass unemployment, homelessness and severe cuts to public services and social security benefits. The middle and upper classes largely don’t have as much to worry about, unless the country tips so far that we enter a depression on the same scale as the Great Depression.

@strawberry2017 Thank you. That is so very kind. It is a shit time for so many people, and for so many different reasons.

I would have thought that they want to see what happens in other countries before jumping the gun.

As others have said, I can imagine lots of people coming out of current rules early because it's going to be looser in X days anyway.

The 2 May Bank Holidays are also a potential problem imo. They don't want people treating them like a normal BH so I wouldn't be surprised if they are avoiding announcing anything that will change people's behaviour.

Raab has stated a qualitative exit strategy from lockdown:

1. NHS can cope

1. Sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates

1. Rate of infection is decreasing to manageable levels

1. Confidence a range of operational challenges, including testing testing and enough PPE are in hand

1. Confidence any release measures will not risk a second peak

I'd hope that quantitative criteria would be attached to these.

Labour is absolutely right to demand an exit strategy and a lot of people seem to misunderstand what that would look like.

Without a vaccine the only way to ease the lockdown is to massively ramp up testing and contact tracing. We aren't even close to where we need to be with that.

The government just aren't being honest with us and they treat us like children.

Spanish here living in the uk. Spain doesn’t have an exit strategy. Their lockdown is much much tough than this country’s. Not allowed out. Kids haven’t seen the sun for a month as can’t even go to supermarket. They’ve left the peak behind. They’re having less deaths every day (unlike the uk) and yet they still haven’t pronounced themselves.

That the nhs is currently coping doesn’t mean If we are allowed to recover our previous life the nhs will. I understand it’s a tough situation (specially for key workers) but one or two weeks more of a month without knowing what the Exit strategy is will be fine. We should focus more on getting over the peak

So far as the five criteria stated by Raab go, the first three should be achievable. The 4th (testing, PPE etc.) seems to have been a massive challenge. As for no second peak? I don't have enough fingers to cross. Whether reinfections happen, an effective vaccine can be developed and distributed, there's a natural damping down over summer and so on remain to be seen. It might run and run.