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Schools could reopen in weeks

635 replies

Orangeblossom78 · 10/04/2020 15:21

In todays "Times"

"Schools could reopen in a few weeks as coronavirus restrictions begin to be lifted, Public Health England suggested this morning.

Paul Cosford, the agency’s emeritus medical director, said that easing the lockdown for the young first was being considered as ministers look to set out an exit plan for the coming weeks.

Finding a way out of lockdown is the government’s “number one topic and priority”, according to Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, one of its leading advisers on the epidemic.

Professor Cosford said: “People are doing really well with the social distancing and it is working as far as we can see to flatten this pandemic,” but acknowledged the balance between controlling the epidemic and allowing normal life to resume.

He said that now was not the moment to relent, telling Today on BBC Radio 4: “Once you start getting things under control, that’s the time you absolutely need to continue with all your measures so that you can bring the disease right down and crack it.”

He expects there to be “a lot of discussions over the next week or so” about an exit strategy. Asked if restrictions might be eased in several weeks, he said: “I think several weeks isn’t unreasonable. Let’s hope it’s sooner than that.”

He said that starting by letting the young resume normal life was being considered. “The importance of children’s education, children being in school is paramount. That’s not the only issue but I could conceive of circumstances where some of the restrictions are lifted sooner and some are lifted later,” he said.

“There are some really difficult issues here because if you look at children and the closure of schools, a very important measure to help get this under control, but we do know that children are very low risk of getting serious complications of this disease.”

Professor Ferguson told the same programme that while hospital admissions appeared to be plateauing, “it’s going to be several more weeks before we can definitively conclude anything about the rate of decline and therefore when measures could be lifted”.

He said it was “good news” that more people were obeying social distancing rules than the government expected and said that “measures will be targeted probably by age, by geography” on lifting lockdown.

“There are lots of ideas worth exploring. That’s what’s happening right now. We clearly don’t want these measures to continue longer than is absolutely necessary — the economic costs, social costs, personal costs and health costs are huge.”

Head teachers are lobbying the government to reopen schools before the summer holidays, even for just a few weeks, if scientific advice says that it is safe.

Paul Whiteman and Geoff Barton, the general secretaries of the NAHT and ASCL head teachers’ unions, have told ministers pupils would benefit greatly from schools reopening before the summer, rather than waiting until September.

They believe that even a few weeks of school would help pupils remember what formal learning is like and what is required of them. If schools do not open before the summer children will have been away from the classroom and formal learning for more than five months.

The Department for Education is said to have shown a “genuine interest” in the approach, which would see pupils return for a number of weeks during the summer term to “reacquaint themselves with the educational environment”.

The government has made clear that it is too soon to consider reopening schools after the Easter holidays following speculation that pupils could return as soon as April 20.

“That said, once the scientific advice is that schools can return safely, they should do so, even if it’s for a very limited period before the summer break, as this will allow young people to reacquaint themselves with the educational environment,” the two leaders told Schools Week journal.

However, they warned that any return to normality “has to be a planned one”.

“It can’t be about flicking a switch on a Friday night and then thinking it’s all going to be all right on a Monday morning,” they said.

OP posts:
refraction · 10/04/2020 17:05

Has anyone read the SAGE science which said 16 weeks has the biggest impact?

Ponoka7 · 10/04/2020 17:08

"My view has always been that the vulnerable and elderly should isolate and the rest of us should go back to work, school etc..."

The vulnerable are everyday workers and parents. They are a percentage of the children. That's particularly true since DLA went to PIP, then an add on to UC and disabled people were forced back into work.

It's going to take a lot of people out of circulation and some of them will be doctors and other key workers. As well as children.

The vulnerable can become any one of us at any time. I doubt that the party that gave us austerity, when it's now plain that we didn't need it, are going to rewrite the benefit system so people can survive while this is all going on.

So what we will have is a cull, every now and again. I'm in my 50's, we've gone back to the 70/80's. When cancers, heart disease, HIV, asthma, diabetes, being over 50, meant that you might not live long.

lancs54 · 10/04/2020 17:09

The importance of children’s education, children being in school is paramount.

Eh, no. People's lives are paramount in an emergency situation.

cantkeepawayforever · 10/04/2020 17:09

children/young people aren't that affected by the coronavirus compared to other groups

Unfortunately, schools are staffed by adults, who ARE affected by coronavirus, and schoolchildren also live with adults.

In itlay, a child's chance of dying from coronavirus was only 0.1% - 1 or 2 per secondary school.

However, deaths of 50-59 year olds (the most common age group of school staff where I work) in Italy was 2.4% - 2 or 3 teachers per hundred....

BogRollBOGOF · 10/04/2020 17:09

I can't see schools reopening before the 12 weeks of shielding are up. There simply isn't the staffing. Possibly (In England) some kind of phased opening (y12, y10 and a closure for y6 as priority year groups) later in the summer. Possibly a shortened term 6 shortly before the July break-up. But not really a back to normal business approach before September, and no country has had the chance to tread that stage of virus progress yet either.

You can not social distance a normal school cohort. Part time, maybe, but families and teachers are still spread points across classes. Secondary timetables are complex and at the upper years rely on specialists that know the course content.

While schools are obviously there to educate, childcare is structured around them. There is a close relationship in the ability to school children and the logistics of the workforce returning. They go together.

For my DCs, I really don't know what is best. My y2 would benefit from mixed social interractions and is more flexible to change. My y4 has ASD and other SpLDs and needs consistency. He is largely relaxing into home life, but would struggle with an on/ off approach. He will find after months of a very quiet, introverted existence that it is hard to be thrust back into bustling normality.

Back to the numbers that are known at present, we know that the approach to this initial peak is slower and more gradual than it potentially could be. We still don't know much about the impact of the protective measures currently in place so anything beyond mere hypothesising is pointless conjecture.

Lolwhat · 10/04/2020 17:14

Peak isn’t expected to hit until mid may/beginning of June, at least in the south west, no one will be going anywhere until end of July at the earliest

theDudesmummy · 10/04/2020 17:19

Someone seemed to be mooting the idea upthread that parents with kids at home and working from home could also be parenting/homeschooling their kids at the same time they are working. That is not possible in many many cases. I cannot do it. If I had no-one else here to look after DS I would not be able to work.

noblegiraffe · 10/04/2020 17:21

11 bus drivers have died so far, as a result of keeping the buses running in London.

cant the first is true, the second not necessarily following. There are people dying who have been infected in other places than work. We don’t know how many of those bus drivers were infected while driving a bus.

MarginalGain · 10/04/2020 17:23

11 bus drivers have died so far, as a result of keeping the buses running in London.

There are about 20x more teachers than there are London bus drivers, as far as Google will tell me (c. 25,000 vs c. 500,000).

So would the deaths of 220 teachers be acceptable collateral damage for schools re-opening? (There would obviously be more 'school employed adults who died, because there are TAs. dinner ladies, cleaners etc in schools as well)?

------

Bus drivers are known to have significantly worse health outcomes than the general population.

The Lancet has suggested that school closures only minimally disrupt covid19 transmission, so there's little reason to keep them closed.

AlternativePerspective · 10/04/2020 17:26

Thing is, whenever it happens there will be people who don’t agree with it. Because truth is that people will continue to die of coronavirus, even when there is a vaccine people will still die of coronavirus in the same way they die from other conditions which can now be vaccinated against.

Bear in mind that closures etc were merely to slow the spread, it cannot be stopped, and we cannot live in an economy where we have frequent and prolonged lockdowns.

The government cannot afford to pay furlowe rates indefinitely and companies cannot stay closed indefinitely either.

When we come out of lockdown (and it will be when and not if) people will still be catching coronavirus and will still be dying of it. Just hopefully not in such great numbers.

It will be interesting to see what happens in China now. But regardless, China have control measures such as insisting people provide ID etc before they leave their compounds and also have their temperatures taken etc which the west simply do not, and even if they did, the public would never tolerate it, but in China they’re more used to living under more totalitarian rules...

cantkeepawayforever · 10/04/2020 17:27

Noble, that's true, apologies.

Appuskidu · 10/04/2020 17:27

The Lancet has suggested that school closures only minimally disrupt covid19 transmission, so there's little reason to keep them closed.

The Lancet has not suggested that in the slightest.

Tootletum · 10/04/2020 17:28

Wtf is wrong with everyone. It's not clear that children can even transit it, so teachers aren't necessarily at a high risk at all. Or not more so than anyone else who starts going about their job again. I'm so sick of the bullshit. Yes it's a small risk and larger for people in poor health but it's not ebola FFS. It's the fear and myths that will kill us.

MarginalGain · 10/04/2020 17:28

Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2–4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext

cantkeepawayforever · 10/04/2020 17:28

The Lancet has suggested that school closures only minimally disrupt covid19 transmission, so there's little reason to keep them closed.

The reporting of that study has, unfortunately, been seriously flawed.

refraction · 10/04/2020 17:29

The Lancet has suggested that school closures only minimally disrupt covid19 transmission, so there's little reason to keep them closed.

That article is so flawed. Do some research. Have you actually read it?

daisyjgrey · 10/04/2020 17:29

Speculating all the bloody time isn't going to make them open any faster...

Oaksquarebox · 10/04/2020 17:31

IMO June for a month before the Scottish summer holidays. Perhaps for the older kids in school or may be just p7 to get them through what they need to know for High School starting mid August.

Whoever said January is scaremongering. That will never happen and I definitely think English schools will be back before September.

refraction · 10/04/2020 17:33

Or not more so than anyone else who starts going about their job again. I'm so sick of the bullshit

I think social distancing is easier than some jobs than others. Hmm

Neveranynamesleft · 10/04/2020 17:35

Jeez what a load of waffle from OP. . I'm sick of reading / hearing about the opinions and views of these armchair experts telling us that this should happen, this shouldn't happen, I think this, I think that...please just shut up. Topic of conversation maybe but I will just wait for the official government's statements about each topic thanks.

refraction · 10/04/2020 17:35

Marginal have you read the SAGE study too. The one that actually advises our government.

Ricekrispie22 · 10/04/2020 17:35

This www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/can-kids-catch-coronavirus-what-we-know-about-covid-19-and-children article says:

“Can children catch coronavirus?
Yes. They can be infected with and appear to be able to transmit coronavirus, even if they do not have symptoms. That is why it is important for children to practice social distancing and hand-washing, even if they do not appear ill.”

So if kids can carry it but you can’t tell who has it because they’re not displaying symptoms, doesn’t that make them even more dangerous?

AJPTaylor · 10/04/2020 17:36

The main issue is that you cannot send kids back to school but expect people to maintain any other aspect of social distancing.

DeathByBoredom · 10/04/2020 17:36

Cool, off you trot then @Neveranynamesleft

Appuskidu · 10/04/2020 17:37

Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2–4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions.

Yes, exactly!! The word ALONE there is kind of crucial, isn’t it?

As we didn’t close schools as an isolated strategy, the research isn’t terribly relevant.

Prof Neil Ferguson has been quite clear that closing schools as part of our wider program of social distancing has been very effective at severing transmission between households. Even the scientists involved in writing that report are not happy how it was interpreted by the tabloids.