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Schools could reopen in weeks

635 replies

Orangeblossom78 · 10/04/2020 15:21

In todays "Times"

"Schools could reopen in a few weeks as coronavirus restrictions begin to be lifted, Public Health England suggested this morning.

Paul Cosford, the agency’s emeritus medical director, said that easing the lockdown for the young first was being considered as ministers look to set out an exit plan for the coming weeks.

Finding a way out of lockdown is the government’s “number one topic and priority”, according to Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, one of its leading advisers on the epidemic.

Professor Cosford said: “People are doing really well with the social distancing and it is working as far as we can see to flatten this pandemic,” but acknowledged the balance between controlling the epidemic and allowing normal life to resume.

He said that now was not the moment to relent, telling Today on BBC Radio 4: “Once you start getting things under control, that’s the time you absolutely need to continue with all your measures so that you can bring the disease right down and crack it.”

He expects there to be “a lot of discussions over the next week or so” about an exit strategy. Asked if restrictions might be eased in several weeks, he said: “I think several weeks isn’t unreasonable. Let’s hope it’s sooner than that.”

He said that starting by letting the young resume normal life was being considered. “The importance of children’s education, children being in school is paramount. That’s not the only issue but I could conceive of circumstances where some of the restrictions are lifted sooner and some are lifted later,” he said.

“There are some really difficult issues here because if you look at children and the closure of schools, a very important measure to help get this under control, but we do know that children are very low risk of getting serious complications of this disease.”

Professor Ferguson told the same programme that while hospital admissions appeared to be plateauing, “it’s going to be several more weeks before we can definitively conclude anything about the rate of decline and therefore when measures could be lifted”.

He said it was “good news” that more people were obeying social distancing rules than the government expected and said that “measures will be targeted probably by age, by geography” on lifting lockdown.

“There are lots of ideas worth exploring. That’s what’s happening right now. We clearly don’t want these measures to continue longer than is absolutely necessary — the economic costs, social costs, personal costs and health costs are huge.”

Head teachers are lobbying the government to reopen schools before the summer holidays, even for just a few weeks, if scientific advice says that it is safe.

Paul Whiteman and Geoff Barton, the general secretaries of the NAHT and ASCL head teachers’ unions, have told ministers pupils would benefit greatly from schools reopening before the summer, rather than waiting until September.

They believe that even a few weeks of school would help pupils remember what formal learning is like and what is required of them. If schools do not open before the summer children will have been away from the classroom and formal learning for more than five months.

The Department for Education is said to have shown a “genuine interest” in the approach, which would see pupils return for a number of weeks during the summer term to “reacquaint themselves with the educational environment”.

The government has made clear that it is too soon to consider reopening schools after the Easter holidays following speculation that pupils could return as soon as April 20.

“That said, once the scientific advice is that schools can return safely, they should do so, even if it’s for a very limited period before the summer break, as this will allow young people to reacquaint themselves with the educational environment,” the two leaders told Schools Week journal.

However, they warned that any return to normality “has to be a planned one”.

“It can’t be about flicking a switch on a Friday night and then thinking it’s all going to be all right on a Monday morning,” they said.

OP posts:
riceuten · 10/04/2020 20:22

a weird distillation of lockdown cheerleaders.

So, if we disagree with schools opening in June, we are "lockdown cheerleaders", then ?

LittleBearPad · 10/04/2020 20:22

I genuinely think some people believe lockdown is designed to stop us all getting Covid19 at all. It’s not.

It’s designed to slow the spread so the NHS can cope.

It will be no safer in September than now or in June. But in June the NHS won’t be facing the winter flu season too as it will in September.

DeathByBoredom · 10/04/2020 20:24

100% agree with the cowardly and unrealistic comments
It's really taking a long while for the penny to drop. I still see posters on here who think it's all going away if we all do lockdown properly for a few weeks.

LaProfesora · 10/04/2020 20:25

Double class sizes?! What?! Teaching a group of 60 year 8s?! No, thanks... 😂

DysonFury · 10/04/2020 20:36

There isn't enough booze in the world to make January 2021 in any way acceptable.

FourTeaFallOut · 10/04/2020 20:37

Cowardly? You want to work on the perfectly healthy who think it is reasonable to hog the delivery slots from the vulnerable because they couldn't possibly bear the thought stepping in to a supermarket before you make your way up to berating people who are reluctant to send their children back to school where it is impossible to enforce social distancing.

DrMadelineMaxwell · 10/04/2020 20:38

It worries me that they may blanket-wide lift restrictions. We live in N Wales and it was nearly a month after community transmissions started in London before we had them here.

Cases are only just starting up here.

Redwinestillfine · 10/04/2020 20:42

I think there was an idea mentioned upthread that a few seem to subscribe to that government policy has to reflect the will of the people.... that's not the case at all. We elect the government and give them a mandate to govern. They then make the policy decisions to solve issues. Yes sometimes policy is influenced by lobbyists, and they may well consult key groups of people that may be impacted by policy and take their views into account but it's not a referendum. The policy decisions around Coronavirus will not be influenced by how loud people shout.

bettybattenburg · 10/04/2020 20:42

Chris Witty and Patrick Valance also said that large events are not much of a problem because you would only infect 4-8 people immediately around you. So business as usual, and herd immunity was a good idea.

That assumes that they you stand still in the same place for the entire event and that everybody else does as well. There is no way that's going to happen. It's complete and utter nonsense. Even if you are at the theatre or ballet you will go out at the interval for a drink, you will probably go to the toilet and then you'll all be queueing to get in and out.

clicktheadlink · 10/04/2020 20:47

There might be a phased return, returning children in areas with low levels of infection and keeping a travel out of area ban (other than to work) to return and working out different things for larger density areas, trying to keep class numbers down. Basically working out ways to lower risk.

I think that beyond a certain point, children's mental health will suffer and that isn't something we want. Whether back to school or parks or playing together or anywhere being opened, there will be risks but at some point it will happen. Even if schools don't go back, the idea of keeping children inside until Sept is not realistic, and so it is a matter of finding other ways to keep risk of infection down as much as possible.

For example, people wearing homemade masks and keeping circles of friends small and generally being aware of how germs spread will make a difference. Some good public health communication here would help, more ads for television about how to not spread germs - just to really get the message home to everyone.

Many people are still having to go into work now though and with children back at school that would increase - it wouldn't just be teachers being put at risk.

StatisticallyChallenged · 10/04/2020 20:49

The "not looking after your own children" comments are so pathetic. Plenty of parents are still expected to do a full day's work whilst looking after their children or have had to take unpaid leave. And remember nurseries are shut too so it's not just school age. It's about keeping their jobs rather than "not looking after their children"

I'm in Scotland so late June breakup here. I've said a few times that I wonder if they might allow childcare to open over summer. Only a fraction of primary school age kids are in holiday clubs at any one time - in my area I'd say it's probably about 20% but staggered with lots only using a couple of weeks. It would also get the youngest back in nursery. Slower release than all kids back, and gets parents back to work.

The furlough scheme is only guaranteed until end may at the moment and predicted to cost a fucking fortune. They need to get things moving around then as they won't want to significantly extend it on the current terms

Chris5690 · 10/04/2020 20:52

Its weird to me that peoplw pn ere are so accepting of the government allowing mass deaths (1% of 60% of our population is 400000 people). Other countries haven't had mass deaths, aren't on full lockdown (can still go to restarants etc) and have had far less deaths - and a better economy too! Eg singapore with circa 200 deaths. Why do you think so many deaths is inevitable? Why can't the government do widespread testing and contact tracing instead?

Chris5690 · 10/04/2020 20:53

Why not delatly until better treatments are found and more ventilators built?

clicktheadlink · 10/04/2020 20:54

Chris Witty and Patrick Valance also said that large events are not much of a problem because you would only infect 4-8 people immediately around you that isn't what other leading scientists are saying now. Is that advice they gave before lockdown? It has been acknowledged that the advice being provided to govmt in Jan/Feb was wrong, now, I think, so if that was the advice then it might not be the advice now. Unless advice now is being requested to support to desired policy, of course.

mejon · 10/04/2020 20:55

The peak has been predicted for June where I am and DD1's secondary school is currently being transformed into a field hospital for the Covid cases they are predicting. I'm certain the health board and local authority wouldn't be doing all this work if schools were likely to be back before the autumn term. Can't imagine how much deep cleaning the building will require when they hand it back.

DeathByBoredom · 10/04/2020 20:59

Fuck knows why our government couldn't do testing and tracing, but it's way too late for that now. May as well crack on. Those countries that managed it early on will find it an uphill battle from now on anyway.

Cremebrule · 10/04/2020 21:01

I just can’t imagine schools opening until September really. If they go sooner, I’ll be pleasantly surprised but I just can’t see how teachers can be kept safe, vulnerable children, other support staff etc. I think if the weather had been shit, lockdown would be viewed much more negatively. At the moment, it is close to a holiday feeling because it has been so nice. 2 weeks of rain and lockdown will feel much harder.

clicktheadlink · 10/04/2020 21:01

@mejon that sounds like a late predicted peak, I thought peaks were predicted for within the next month. New cases in spain and italy supposed to be now levelling or getting lower, and UK were following them by a number of weeks?

Frezia · 10/04/2020 21:02

@FibiaTibiaHummas By 'cowering' in our houses we are also protecting those who have to be out, can't you see that? The goal of social distancing is to reduce infection rate and stop putting NHS workers, bus drivers and anyone else on ventilators and in body bags. You are not responsible for your own health anymore but for thousands of others too. You compare it to war, but this is NOT a war (take it from someone who has lived through one), you can't fight this 'enemy' with arms or pride or fighting spirit.

If we as a society write off a part of the population so that we could go back to our way of life (and add more horrors and trauma for the frontline staff), it will also destroy that way of life you long for. The only way we can get through this crisis is with solidarity. We all have to play our part.

StatisticallyChallenged · 10/04/2020 21:03

The current lockdown has basically been to slow things down so more ventilators, temp hospitals etc can be built so the overall capacity increases. But we're probably more than a year from a vaccine, who knows from a treatment. The economy cannot stay shut down like this for those sorts of time periods.

More aggressive testing and tracing to help slow things post lockdown - to keep below nhs capacity- makes sense. But i think we're going to keep seeing cases when we reopen, and i think the basic plan is still esentially herd immunity - just slower

DeathByBoredom · 10/04/2020 21:04

And are you bravely going to stay home saving lives until that vaccine comes along?

JesmondDene · 10/04/2020 21:04

Yes, as an LA we are just starting to open schools 7 days per week including care for the under 5's of KW's. Long term plans. This isn't going to go away anytime soon.

DrMadelineMaxwell · 10/04/2020 21:05

I've asserted this on other threads too..
Although there is scope to loosen restrictions earlier, if things seem to be going in the right direction soon enough, lots of things put in place are based around 12ish weeks.

12 weeks shielding advice (in words of Welsh minister 'at least 12' weeks).
12 weeks of provision of preschool nursery provision for key workers, to be funded by the 30 free hours pot of money.
14 weeks of BBC etc online/TV education.

I would like to think we are back mid/late June when the shielding initial period is up. For the last 4 weeks of term, to allow some 'reschooling' and some time to mitigate some of the learning loss that will be taking place right now. It would allow for a 'normal' summer holiday (already confirmed to be the case, again in Wales) before starting a new year in Sept.

But then nothing is normal at the moment.

MarginalGain · 10/04/2020 21:07

By 'cowering' in our houses we are also protecting those who have to be out, can't you see that? The goal of social distancing is to reduce infection rate and stop putting NHS workers, bus drivers and anyone else on ventilators and in body bags. You are not responsible for your own health anymore but for thousands of others too. You compare it to war, but this is NOT a war (take it from someone who has lived through one), you can't fight this 'enemy' with arms or pride or fighting spirit.

I also would like to know specifically how long you're wiling to do this for.

noblegiraffe · 10/04/2020 21:08

Other countries haven't had mass deaths, aren't on full lockdown (can still go to restarants etc) and have had far less deaths - and a better economy too! Eg singapore with circa 200 deaths

Singapore has just announced a lockdown in response to a surge in cases.

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52232147