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Schools could reopen in weeks

635 replies

Orangeblossom78 · 10/04/2020 15:21

In todays "Times"

"Schools could reopen in a few weeks as coronavirus restrictions begin to be lifted, Public Health England suggested this morning.

Paul Cosford, the agency’s emeritus medical director, said that easing the lockdown for the young first was being considered as ministers look to set out an exit plan for the coming weeks.

Finding a way out of lockdown is the government’s “number one topic and priority”, according to Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, one of its leading advisers on the epidemic.

Professor Cosford said: “People are doing really well with the social distancing and it is working as far as we can see to flatten this pandemic,” but acknowledged the balance between controlling the epidemic and allowing normal life to resume.

He said that now was not the moment to relent, telling Today on BBC Radio 4: “Once you start getting things under control, that’s the time you absolutely need to continue with all your measures so that you can bring the disease right down and crack it.”

He expects there to be “a lot of discussions over the next week or so” about an exit strategy. Asked if restrictions might be eased in several weeks, he said: “I think several weeks isn’t unreasonable. Let’s hope it’s sooner than that.”

He said that starting by letting the young resume normal life was being considered. “The importance of children’s education, children being in school is paramount. That’s not the only issue but I could conceive of circumstances where some of the restrictions are lifted sooner and some are lifted later,” he said.

“There are some really difficult issues here because if you look at children and the closure of schools, a very important measure to help get this under control, but we do know that children are very low risk of getting serious complications of this disease.”

Professor Ferguson told the same programme that while hospital admissions appeared to be plateauing, “it’s going to be several more weeks before we can definitively conclude anything about the rate of decline and therefore when measures could be lifted”.

He said it was “good news” that more people were obeying social distancing rules than the government expected and said that “measures will be targeted probably by age, by geography” on lifting lockdown.

“There are lots of ideas worth exploring. That’s what’s happening right now. We clearly don’t want these measures to continue longer than is absolutely necessary — the economic costs, social costs, personal costs and health costs are huge.”

Head teachers are lobbying the government to reopen schools before the summer holidays, even for just a few weeks, if scientific advice says that it is safe.

Paul Whiteman and Geoff Barton, the general secretaries of the NAHT and ASCL head teachers’ unions, have told ministers pupils would benefit greatly from schools reopening before the summer, rather than waiting until September.

They believe that even a few weeks of school would help pupils remember what formal learning is like and what is required of them. If schools do not open before the summer children will have been away from the classroom and formal learning for more than five months.

The Department for Education is said to have shown a “genuine interest” in the approach, which would see pupils return for a number of weeks during the summer term to “reacquaint themselves with the educational environment”.

The government has made clear that it is too soon to consider reopening schools after the Easter holidays following speculation that pupils could return as soon as April 20.

“That said, once the scientific advice is that schools can return safely, they should do so, even if it’s for a very limited period before the summer break, as this will allow young people to reacquaint themselves with the educational environment,” the two leaders told Schools Week journal.

However, they warned that any return to normality “has to be a planned one”.

“It can’t be about flicking a switch on a Friday night and then thinking it’s all going to be all right on a Monday morning,” they said.

OP posts:
Peppafrig · 10/04/2020 18:54

@YappityYapYap I'm in Scotland and we break up 24th June . Not in July .

DICarter1 · 10/04/2020 18:54

I don’t know when there will be a safe time. For my two dc with autism, going back for a few weeks will more than likely confuse them (one mainstream and one specialist). The older of the two in mainstream is already very very scared despite us shielding her from the news. I just hope the government make a sensible decision. We were very late in locking down and our lockdown is nowhere near as extensive as China and they haven’t sent some of their schools back. It’s probably terrible to say it but as much as I don’t like them missing education (their sibling is in her last year of primary), their safety is my concern and they’re in a small school where social distancing will be very hard. I also can’t see how my dc could keep 2m away from her ft 1:1.

Lulublu · 10/04/2020 18:58

I imagine for many vulnerable people it would take strong evidence of herd immunity or a vaccine to make them feel safe. I wouldn’t be surprised if people kept shielding past the 12 week point which seems a little arbitrary - I get you may have less chance of catching the virus if we sort our act out with testing etc etc but most people in that category won’t want to take that chance.

Crunchymum · 10/04/2020 18:58

My school sent a letter a week ago, confirming they'll be closed for "at least 12 weeks" so nope can't see a return any time soon.

We are a shielding household so even if the kids were to be allowed back, I couldn't / wouldn't send mine.

Candycane45 · 10/04/2020 18:59

It will almost certainly be June at the latest. And the reason for that is that they will want to avoid a second peak in winter. If the schools open in September then the cases will have risen to a second peak by November which will cause double the strain on the NHS due to the normal flu season. So it makes sense for them to ease the country out of lockdown by late spring/start of summer. It’s the best possible time for them to expose the rest of the population to the virus.

oncemorewithfeeling99 · 10/04/2020 19:01

The first bit implies schools opening soon but reading on its days a very short period before the summer holidays. So certainly not for another half term at least.

refraction · 10/04/2020 19:01

Belle agree.

Why do you think September will be safe?

It's time I suppose. Time to watch what happens in other countries like Spain, Italy, Korea.

Will Wuhan have a second wave?

There is the chance that antivirals may be developed. More info on the blood plasma and the vaccine ( though a long way off).

There would be more information. There will be more Time. (Caveat mental health)

Contact tracing, testing development. Antibody test.

Looking at the SAGE research 16 weeks has maximum affect too.

So plenty of reasons why September.

FibiaTibiaHummus · 10/04/2020 19:05

Cars kill thousands each year - both in accidents and air pollution.
Yet if we banned cars there would be an outcry.

Yet, now we've banned pretty much everything to save probably fewer lives.

It's unprecedented, and I think largely due to the fact that we can now all bay our fears and our outrage at our politicians through social media as we never have been able to before.
That doesn't mean the lockdown is the best solution.
Sweden's response has happened because it's the health body that has the power to make these decisions, rather than a demagoguery-prone political party.

If the lockdown continues for much longer, the consequences will be far greater than the lives saved from COVID19.

I know it was Trump who said that we mustn't let the cure be worse than the disease, but he was right (I'm telling myself that he was parroting it from someone wiser).

Death has always been on the cards, for all of us.
Those wanting a lockdown until a vaccine is produced are, in my opinion, far more selfish than those willing to continue life as normally as possible.

Lulublu · 10/04/2020 19:07

But if you feel vulnerable group you would be rightly worried about your own life. That’s not selfish.

refraction · 10/04/2020 19:08

The Department for Transport (DfT) has announced there were 1,784 reported road deaths in 2018, compared to 1,793 reported in 2017 – a 1% fall. There were 25,511 people seriously injured in reported road traffic accidents in 2018, compared to 24,831 in 2017

Covid has nearly that a day at the moment. Its a poor argument.

noblegiraffe · 10/04/2020 19:08

They obviously were always planning for school closures to be lengthy.

Yep, the BBC has geared up an education programme that covers the entire summer term. Anyone I’ve talked to or heard from likely to be in the know in schools say September.

If they decide to change that, there would need to be a solid evidence base including looking at the outcomes of schools re-opening in other countries.

Branster · 10/04/2020 19:09

Can I just point out that in the same paper, same day, there was mention of young people potentially being the first to be allowed out of restrictions on a cautious basis to attempt an injection into the economy. By that, they mean 20-30 year olds if still deemed as being at lower risk. Same paper, different paragraphs also suggested there may be the case that a much lower percentage of population than previously considered has been exposed to the virus. The highest estimate being in Italy at 10%.
Realistically, there will be no return to any kind of normal right of school and work for the vast majority of the population until a vaccine is found.
The 1 year time frame is overly optimistic. I hope they do find a vaccine within a year. But then it would take at least another year to manufacture, distribute and inoculate enough of the population in the whole world. That is best case scenario.
For the sake of everybody, I hope the schools won’t open until September. No way will they open in 6-8 weeks time. If they do, it will be a failed experiment.
It would have been a different environment if schools remained open.
I suspect there will be a series of gradual re-introductions by age groups and job sectors which would be re-adjusted until a vaccine is used effectively.
People need to stop dreaming. Yes, it’s shit but that’s the reality.

Sceptre86 · 10/04/2020 19:09

August in Scotland, September in England. I think basically at the start if the new school year, they will be back. This should give teachers and school staff enough time to prepare for the return of pupils and hopefully normal life can resume.

FourTeaFallOut · 10/04/2020 19:10

Ffs, you comparing the significantly reduced death figures of coronavirus made possible by lockdown against other mortality risks.. and then suggesting we should lift the lockdown. This is madness. What kind of Mickey mouse accounting is that?

BelleSausage · 10/04/2020 19:10

@refraction

My main worry is that the science will be pushed aside because of public pressure groups. Which is why I am so enraged by some of the responses on this thread.

16 weeks looks the most likely based on that SAGE report.

I wonder if anyone on this thread has given any thought to the fact that there are two different strains of the virus. Having had one doesn’t always mean you are immune to the other.

FibiaTibiaHummus · 10/04/2020 19:10

Its a poor argument.

'Cept you left out air pollution.

FibiaTibiaHummus · 10/04/2020 19:11

Not to mention the consequences of long-term economic recession we have coming...

MigginsMs · 10/04/2020 19:12

It would seem unlikely to me, surely schools is the main way disease will spread between households, which is what all the current measures have been trying to avoid?

refraction · 10/04/2020 19:13

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Hollyhead · 10/04/2020 19:15

I think after May half term in lesser affected regions and September for london/birmingham etc.

refraction · 10/04/2020 19:16

Cept you left out air pollution.

Go on you will have to explain.🤷🏼‍♀️🙈

FibiaTibiaHummus · 10/04/2020 19:18

You need me to explain air pollution...?

FourTeaFallOut · 10/04/2020 19:20

Cept you left out air pollution.

And you left out premature deaths that will result from the damaged lungs of those who were badly affected but who survived the virus. We could play this game all day but I'm not sure we'd get anywhere.

Iateallthecookies000 · 10/04/2020 19:21

So many selfish parents on here. As long as you don’t have to look after your own children you don’t give a crap about the effect this will have on the NHS and their families!!

FrippEnos · 10/04/2020 19:23

Here is a plan

Those parents that yell the loudest for schools to return should be the ones that take the classes.

They can plan everything, have the observations and be held to the national curriculum.

They want it, they can be the ones to take the risk.