At the end of the three weeks

[Changedname78]

What will happen? Obviously things will take a long time to go back to complete normality but will shops re open? Will people be able to go back to work ?

Because the cost to the human race of not preparing for worst case, and then encountering it doesn’t bare thinking about. They fully stated it was pessimistic and it was done under government parameters, as in the government wanted to know reasonable worst case and then to prepare for it.

I assume you mean Western race, rather than human, because we accept far more preventable deaths in the third world every year. Far greater. Sadly, the will suffer the most from the global recession as foreign aid dries up.

Yes, this is what really gets me. When death happens to other people, in Africa, people don't give a shit. Then when it could be them that dies, they get really angry at other people who don't give a shit! The fucking irony!

The thing is we screamed for this lock down, headlines shouting lock down now, it’s already too late, people wanted to feel safe, that we were acting, and some undoubtedly loved the drama.

But it’s not going to be long now, mere weeks, before people slowly realise our taxes will pay for this, and that we will have our taxes increased to pay for it, and they will start screaming “put them back to work now”, because every single day millions of people stay home on eighty percent of their salary, costs us millions and millions of tax pounds .

And when I say us, I mean us, we pay for it, so slowly people will realise it, and this forum alone will be filled with. “Get back to work you lazy fucker, why should I pay for you to stay home, I can’t make ends meet as it is”.

Honestly, Mark my words, it will go from lock down, we are all doomed, to wtaf was that all about, and get back to work you free loader.

The thing is we screamed for this lock down, headlines shouting lock down now, it’s already too late, people wanted to feel safe, that we were acting, and some undoubtedly loved the drama.

But how is this showing any kind of leadership?

Bluntness....
I’m afraid that has already started. I know many people saying why should I work everyday for an extra 20% than those at home.
I understand. But I honestly think those with a secure job are in the better position even if it doesn’t feel it right now

Leadership is a different discussion, I’m talking about the people. The government have acted, likely based on a number of factors, predictions, evolution, public mood etc.

As said though I’m talking about us, our behaviour as a population.

@Bluntness100 agree. I think some people genuinely don't realise that the government didn't just have all this money stashed away for an emergency. We will be paying it back and in spades. For some countries all this debt could end in hyperinflation or total poverty. When people realise that there's no magic money tree, things will change very fast.

Paying people to sit and do nothing never ended well for any country. It will go from "yay I get 80% to sit and crochet" to "oh shit, the country will be bankrupt and I will have no job and no house".

Changed, agree, on here alone you see people who are pissed they have to work and not getting paid for, but shortly it’s going to turn, public mood will turn, and it will be get back to work now, I’m paying for you to stay home.

Many countries will default.

A country with low consumerism and high levels of savings (do they exist?) would do OK with months of lockdowns. Not many bailouts needed. However, most of the world runs on 100% productivity at all times, no slack in the system, with the country and the citizens living paycheck to paycheck and up to their eyeballs in debt for housing and cars. A debt-based economy + months of more borrowing and not being able to pay anything off = disaster.

Our world depends on everybody buying things and constantly going out doing things in order to keep other people in work - it's like a circle of work. So this is sort of the worst thing that can possibly happen. We either have to quickly go back to how we were to avoid disaster, or completely change the system into some sort of worldwide communism.

The kids won't go back for a long while but people will start being allowed to return to work depending on the industry

How can people return to work with schools closed? Who looks after the children?

Schools won’t reopen until September. I’m a teacher and was told not to expect to return before my mat leave begins in early July

Who told you that? The Prime Minister? Because if it was a colleague or your head teacher, you can disregard it. They do not know.

Everyone here knows someone who knows someone who works at MOD and has "inside information". No-one really knows anything apart from the government.

Agree, schools will partially need to go back for people who cannot work from home.

It also won’t be long, I give it six weeks, before we start to see tv programs and headlines asking if it was a massive over reaction and if it was worth it, due to the increased taxes everyone will need to pay.

People have short memories, those same people writing the headlines about it being not worth it, will be the same ones who wrote lock down now.

The people complaining about the tax hikes, will be the ones begging to be furloughed now.

People will forget we needed to prepare for reasonable worst case, and that it was our actions that prevented it coming to that,

They will pretend it was never bad in the first place, and that the scientists got it wrong, the government shouldn’t have locked us down, shouldn’t have paid people’s wages, and that they never knew they’d have to pay additional tax , money that they don’t have, to pay for those wages. That unemployment increases could have been avoided if they hadn’t panicked.

I give it six weeks before we start to see it. When people start to understand the cost and how it impacts them and their lives financially.

I don't know, Bluntness, you sort of make it sound like it's a usual political football like Brexit or austerity or climate change where people will just move on and people's fuckups can be swept under the carpet.

This is seismic. I actually regret ever even using the word 'seismic' before, because before Corona I didn't know what it actually meant. We have a half-trillion pounds to repay along with all the other debt and a fuckton of businesses that will go under. How can we go back to normal?

I hope it's just a case that I'm down a rabbit hole and can't see the forest for the trees, the way I feel right now.

Financially we won’t go back to normal for a long time, there will be a brief hiatus before taxes hit to pay for it.

Normal as in going to work, that will happen sooner rather than later, as will schools back. Socialising will take longer to happen. But the financial implications will last a very long time.

And the longer it goes on, the longer the financial hit for us will be.

I feel sorry for the government, I really do, this is such a new untrodden path. They need to prepare for worst case, they need to ensure we don’t breach the nhs, so they need to restruct us to save lives, they need to protect people’s jobs and Income, and they need to then bring us out of it, without a resurgence and a second lock down,... then when they manage that, they need to make us financially pay for it, and do so in a way that doesn’t have people protesting in the streets about lack of funding or increased taxes or screams of austerity.

The whole thing is a shit storm. Seismic is the right word.

My DS goes to nursery (full fees, he is 17 months). I can't look for work until they reopen as I wouldn't be able to give a new job a start date right now. I wonder if people are lumping nurseries in with schools when they say September as we use it year-round.

StormyClouds - "The government have been clear that driving to a safe location to take exercise is perfectly acceptable" They have? Do you have a source as most people saying that are quoting a BBC TV presenter who thought it was a good idea.

I'm pretty sure that I read that unnecessary journeys were now illegal and anyway I'd like to know how someone can do all this driving without getting more petrol for example.

It would be nice to know as I was planning two weeks exercise in Spain later in the summer.

If we hit the peak by the end of week 2 of lockdown;

AND the antibody test works;

AND we have enough tests to check all key workers and then onto the general public:

Then those who have the antibodies will be instructed to return to normal life by week 4 (so Monday 20 April).

Then - if NHS has capacity in ICU, then children will return to school for a short period. Those adults without the antibodies will continue working from home if possible.

That increases productivity in the work force.

Monitor the increases in cases for the next two-three weeks and see if the NHS has capacity.

If no capacity close the schools again for a few weeks.

If there is capacity, adults with no antibodies who are low risk (with no vulnerable people in their household) to return to work in full.

Vulnerable people need to be shielded for 12 weeks while those low risk get the virus and become immune.

There will be no economy if we remain on shutdown for 12 weeks, and that will kill more people than the virus.

At the end of 3 weeks I expect some of the controls to be loosened, more businesses being allowed to operate, schools reopening and anyone with antibodies told to go back to normal. Anyone over 70 or under 70 and not in work will be told to stay in for longer and the financial penalties for not doing so will still apply.

We'll be told the NHS has extra capacity and Boris will set about creating his herd immunity again. Then we find out what the death rate is and see if that changes.

yeah right

At the end of 3 weeks I expect some of the controls to be loosened, more businesses being allowed to operate, schools reopening and anyone with antibodies told to go back to normal

After 3 weeks?? Not a chance in hell.

they could have a Vaccine in as fast as 4 months
they might - but it will be at very early stages of testing if they do.

Dream on. Much to my dismay,I saw in a newspaper today that a lot of experts predict that this is going to take 6 months to be resolved.

After 3 weeks???

You meant 3 months right?

Kids prob wont go back to school till September.

Sources say could be atleast 6 months