At the end of the three weeks

[Changedname78]

What will happen? Obviously things will take a long time to go back to complete normality but will shops re open? Will people be able to go back to work ?

Science: There could be 250,000 deaths if we don't take tough measure
Govt: We will take tough measures
Science: Because you took these measures, we think there will be 20,000 deaths
Idiots: But you said there would be 250,000 deaths earlier

We’ve only been on lockdown since Monday evening! I’m happy they quoted under 20,000. But London Imperial grossly overestimated.

It's a virus. You might be lucky 'taking your chances' that your asymptomatic, but your also taking 'chances' with everyone else you come into contact with, whether they like it or not. I couldn't live with the consequences of that.

Being in lockdown is shit, but I'm trying to make the best of things indoors for me and my two little Dd's (Someone stated 'I'd hate to be stuck at home with two Lo's'? )

Personally, if we are all going to get this (which I've accepted) I'd rather it be when we are over this 'peak', when the NHS are not completely overrun, when there are enough ventilators (I'm not a person who thinks 'it could never happen to me'....), and when we are better equipped to deal with 'me' by not by adding to the overload expected...

The virus death toll could end up being “substantially lower” than 20,000, with most of the fatalities in people who would have died later this year anyway, a government adviser has said.

Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London scientist whose research precipitated tougher government measures last week, told MPs: “It [the deaths of those who would have died anyway] might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or who have underlying conditions.”

did anyone read today that the number of deaths could now be substantially lower than 20,000?

Yes, I posted on another thread that Jeremy Vine had tweeted a study by statisticians including someone from Imperial - estimating that deaths in UK will peak on 5 April, and total deaths will be 5700. Obviously only one model, and there are upper and lower limits to the estimates.

Add in the possibility of the test to show who has had it, and possible drug treatments by then, and there is room for some optimism that restrictions will start to be lifted after the 3 weeks. Of course we can't know how things will develop.

Getting back to work and keeping people safe is going to be difficult, particularly in places with busy public transport. I can understand this being more than 3 weeks away. However, as I said on another thread, keeping families apart who live in different households won't work long term - adult siblings, women who normally pop to mum's every day, grandparents wanting to meet new babies, etc will just start mingling on the quiet.

Yes - there is no way everybody will obey it for the entire time. The people really struggling mentally will see friends and family on the quiet. I'm pretty sure I saw a teenage couple meeting on a park bench - I'm not going to turn vigilante and begrudge someone seeing each other because they're probably finding it really bloody hard! We are humans, not robots.

The lockdowns were never designed with 100% compliance in mind anyway - that model that did the rounds last week from Washington Post showed that with 7/8 people doing proper social distancing, we can drastically flatten the peak.

Thanks littleacorns. Can you post the link?

Also, why are governments following this one study only? A model based on little testing and hardly any data? I read Neil Ferguson made quite a few mistakes with former pandemics

@mumlove5

Yes - the death toll will hopefully be much lower - and most likely people a high proportion of those deaths will be people who would have died soon anyway.

But that's most likely to be because of the strict measures we have put in - social distancing, closing the pubs, reducing gatherings - they can have an effect very quickly on the spread.

We don't want to release the measures too early - because that could undo all the hard work the public has done - and then lead to a much larger increase in the predicted deaths.

Are you comfortable with the decision made to lockdown like this?

@StormyClouds So only essential travel, and only travelling to and from work when it's absolutely necessary allows for driving somewhere to walk a dog?

Hardly essential travel, surely?

dinosaur who can't do links, but if you go on Jeremy vine's twitter it was about 4 hrs ago. it is an interesting thread (is that what they're called on twitter)?
(It's not being discussed on the other mn thread - that has gone in a different direction!)

Also, why are governments following this one study only? A model based on little testing and hardly any data? I read Neil Ferguson made quite a few mistakes with former pandemi

Because what was the alternative?

Do nothing and hope for the best?

You do understand that if we had done nothing, then there could have been a lot of deaths. Plus an overloaded NHS - which would have led to countless 'secondary deaths'.

I do believe that a peak is coming in around a week, but really, really hope it won't be 5700!
Also, I agree about not everybody being able to obey for so long, and it doesn't make them bad people it's just human nature.

@pigsDOfly

The point of the measures is to reduce the risk of infection. There is a far higher risk of infection to yourself and others by walking a dog in a city centre street where you will pass hundreds of people than there is driving 4 miles away to a forest.

From Vine's twitter

Jeremy Vine
@theJeremyVine
·
4h
Replying to
@theJeremyVine
He stresses that his research doesn't show our social distancing has been unnecessary — rather, he says it shows it has worked.

Flu season will be over in April. Warmer weather will help, even if it’ll just slow the transmission.

Boris Johnson told the vulnerable and elderly to isolate for 12 weeks. Once we test for antibodies, people can begin to go back to work, schools, etc.

There are counter arguments now. We need these because going off of one study alone is ludicrous.

However no one knows yet. I am on the more optimistic end rather than the doom and gloom end.

Depending how long this continues then more people will be at risk of suicide. They can't get to counsellors or doctors or obtain medication. I can't be the only one feeling like this.

There are counter arguments now. We need these because going off of one study alone is ludicrous

What are the counter arguments?

@calledyoulastnightfromglasgow
*"I don’t understand the point of fucking up the lives of our children to save people who have already had their shot at life.

This lockdown is ridiculous and I say that as someone with two elderly parents, who agree entirely."*

I'm really shocked by what you have said. The lack of humanity is astounding.

Warmer weather will help, even if it’ll just slow the transmission
www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19]]

Australia has been hit. It's pretty warm there at the moment.

I read somewhere that 80% will catch it. So the lockdown is to slow it down as they know it won't go away. So if in 3 weeks people are recovering and NHS are better prepared then they will relax the isolation for a bit, then start again etc etc

Also hopefully they will start testing soon so people will know if they had it and if they are immune. Surely the immune people can go back to work etc? That's probably why they want these tests...to get the people that have had it back to work

@1980sQueen you're not, it's really hard.

I would bet £100 that all the people shouting at anyone for going outside and engaging in the competitive misery of "Well me and my 4 kids have managed weeks of isolation, you must be STUPID and SELFISH and an entitled snowflake if you can't cope" are the unhappiest of all. If they were that happy, they wouldn't be having a go at people on the internet.

Scientists, Epidemiologists, Doctors.

One model from Oxford came out the other day. It is not peer reviewed yet. Prof Gupta said hundreds of thousands of antibody tests will begin this week.

IT people: There is a problem with the year 2000. We need to reprogram the computers or the systems will crash
World: Please reprogram them

Yr 2000: Nothing happens
Idiots: Well that was a waste of money and effort

This is why antibody testing is vital & is the next urgent step.

If people have immunity (natural immunity from contracting and recovering from the virus at this stage, until a vaccine has been developed) then those people should be safe in theory to return to the workforce and society without being at risk of contracting the virus.

Late April, early May things will be relaxed, is my guess. Much longer than that and the isolation-induced suicides will start.