At the end of the three weeks

[Changedname78]

What will happen? Obviously things will take a long time to go back to complete normality but will shops re open? Will people be able to go back to work ?

it shows the mindset of a large number of police officers. If they're willing to post that on a public forum, who knows what they're thinking and doing behind closed doors?

I don't think it does. I think it was a joke. The obvious use of irony and the winky face rather give it away.

your right, but it does only take one (idiot)....plus you can't help but imagine that was joked about in the station- funny enough to put on Twitter

Oh sure- the fella/lass is an idiot, but to extrapolate from a joke to the idea that many/most police are mad with power is a bit silly. I have this weird thing where I like pretty strong evidence before I make sweeping statements about huge numbers of people based soley on their job.

**Didn't he say what the death rate would be if we did nothing?

It’s only been 3 days! There is no way he can claim that at this time. He’s saying the deaths will be lower because he knows(secretly, can’t admit it of course) he went overboard. He sent the world into a panic, followed by the media.

People do realise that for parents to return to work, schools need to reopen? The idea that some businesses could get moving again in waves, after Easter? How?? People are at home looking after their children.

The entire country did a U-turn because of this one model. Ferguson grossly over estimated the deaths and how long a lockdown should be

Thank god you discovered this in time. You better get on to the PM and show him your data then.

t’s only been 3 days! There is no way he can claim that at this time

It's been more than 3 days - people were advised to avoid pubs and restaurants 10 days ago. Social distancing has been happening.

People's attitudes have been changing. We will see how the next few weeks go.

What would you have done?

Haha. The PM knows.

12 weeks , minimum

I think in 3 weeks time our lockdown will be further extended.
They can't say 5 or 6 weeks from the start. People are freaking out about 3 weeks.
Looking at Spain and Italy this is exactly what they are doing. Adding time on.

I hope I'm wrong but I think it's more likely we will follow suit other countries.

Depending what happens with regards to spread of the virus will determine if things are left as they are now or tightened up.

@480Heath I'm not on a high horse, nor do I think I know best.

We've been told that we should not make nonessential journeys.

Obviously, if your local police force consider driving somewhere to walk a dog is essential then they won't be enforcing the rule about essential and nonessential journeys.

Other police forces will feel differently, as we've already seen on the news.

**It's been more than 3 days - people were advised to avoid pubs and restaurants 10 days ago. Social distancing has been happening.

The pubs and restaurants closed last Friday night. Then people were yelling at others over Mother’s Day weekend to self-isolate. Next Boris locked it down on Sunday or Monday evening. I forget. Tube service slowed down on Monday.

If this is your argument, then hand washing actually did a great job in dropping the death rate from 500,000 to substantially below 20,000. Hey, I’ll take it.

I’m too tired to quote all of Ferguson’s numbers, the high death Percentage, 12-18 months of shutting the world out. Everyone should want him to be wrong. We’ll know a lot in a couple weeks.

I don’t think it will end in 3 weeks but if they don’t reopen some businesses the economy will totally tank, I’m not sure they’d banked on people who could still be working in accordance with the guidance refusing to do so and their employers’ businesses having to close and furlough them.

**12 weeks , minimum

Have you any idea what this will do to the mental and physical health of people, let alone the economy? People’s livelihoods are diminishing. We are in a recession. Let’s make is a depression. Why not?

f this is your argument, then hand washing actually did a great job in dropping the death rate from 500,000 to substantially below 20,000. Hey, I’ll take it

My argument is that the approach so far has hopefully worked.

Reducing the spread of a disease. Staying inside if you have symptoms or have come back from an infected area - that advice seems a long time ago now.

All this has helped reduce the number of carriers spreading the disease. It's surprisingly easy to have a big effect on the number of infections by reducing social contact.

Normally I would interact with maybe 30 people a day. Today - I have interacted with 1 person (DS) and I haven't touched any surfaces outside of the house.

If many people are doing that, just imagine the effect.

The furlough should only be for businesses who have been forced to close or lay off staff. It’s going to cost a total fortune because people who can still work see a way of getting paid 80% of their salary to stay at home are now claiming to be too scared to go to work. I wonder how many of them were in the pubs till they closed last week. It’s going to be totally abused.

It will be 2 months minimum probably. China have come off at 2 months, that’s what it’s taken to get passed the hump and ensure the reduction is stable.

Worst case is probably 12 weeks as that’s what is needed for shielding the most vulnerable. But best guess based on elsewhere 2 months.

Schools may be closed 'til September. They're one of the less harmful things to keep closed, economically speaking. Plus the fact that once you've closed them until May/June, going back is largely pointless anyway.

The entire lockdown wont continue for 12 weeks though, to everyone saying "12 weeks minimum". No chance. Six maybe. Twelve would just destroy the economy. They're not going to do that.

Maybe they'll keep everything locked down for a further 2-3 weeks (depending on how things are going of course - antibody tests will give us much more data to go on) and then switch to just schools closed and vulnerable groups advised to stay home, while letting everyone else go back to work with strong social distancing practices, something like that.

I think what happens in three weeks depends entirely on a number of variables, besides the trajectory of the infection rate, the most important if which is the availability of an antibody test.

If infection rates are still climbing or high, and there's no reliable antibody test available, then I see no option but to continue with reasonably strict lockdown conditions. If there is an antibody test available, then the obvious thing to do is give it to people in occupations deemed of most importance to society and the economy in a bid to get them back into the workplace and get some degree of normality back.

If a reliable antibody test is still some time away, then there comes a point where the government is going to have to weigh up the risk of societal breakdown and disorder as people become increasingly disillusioned with lockdown and take less and less heed of it, and actually just permitting a limited relaxation of the conditions even though that will likely lead to an increase in infection rates and deaths.

It's uncomfortable to think about, but there is a point where any responsible government has to make a choice whereby it will mean some extra casualties if it prevents total societal breakdown and lawlessness. I think we're still a long way from that point though.

Personally, if we are all going to get this (which I've accepted) I'd rather it be when we are over this 'peak', when the NHS are not completely overrun, when there are enough ventilators (I'm not a person who thinks 'it could never happen to me'....), and when we are better equipped to deal with 'me' by not by adding to the overload expected

Also, with every passing week we learn more about the disease, gather more data, more studies are completed, anti-virals, etc. so of course if we're all going to get it, the later the better.

neil_ferguson
@neil_ferguson
1/4 -" I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)."

mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928

oh sure- the fella/lass is an idiot, but to extrapolate from a joke to the idea that many/most police are mad with power is a bit silly. I have this weird thing where I like pretty strong evidence before I make sweeping statements about huge numbers of people based soley on their job.

I'd also like to see the evidence on that. Unfortunately that 'idiot' insinuated they were speaking on behalf of their colleagues - 'We' not 'I'.....So not a sweeping statement, an opinion on harmful and concerning post made using an official Twitter account.

But as you said, let's see the evidence on that- speculative or proven-

There needs to be a balanced approach. If we get through this with 20,000 direct deaths as models suggest with controls that is a good outcome, equivalent to a bad flu year.

There will also be an unknown number of indirect deaths though - people unable to access the heath service for other reasons, mental health problems and in the longer term the impacts of austerity from the economic and social sanctions. These will far outweigh the direct deaths but I have not seen any papers modelling these.

However if we do not introduce any controls and 80% of the population contracts it in a short period with a 1% death rate a high end estimate is that 480,000 people die some of which will be young. Also I have not seen many reports of the long term impacts of having the disease. Reports from China suggest and increase in chronic fatigue syndrome and ongoing severe lung issues from those that recover.

The approach needs to be to reduce the contagion rate so the health system can cope whilst allowing low risk economic activity as and when it can be introduced until we have a vaccine.

I must admit I think things will HAVE to start going back to normal somewhat by 12 weeks, I for one will love my county and all the things to do/see/buy in it! Will rents go down? Will house prices go down? Cost of living? Again only speculation but it has to right ?

I predict that the end of these three weeks, we will look back on them as greatest fiasco of modern history.

Will house prices go down?

I bloody well hope so, it's really disheartening when you spend 4 years cramped in a tiny flat, driving a 13 year old car and shopping in charity shops to save half your salary every month.....to only be able to afford 15% of a 2-bed flat.

In terms of social distancing, a minimum of 2 months seems to be necessary to really flatten infections. As to businesses, etc, I don't know!