At the end of the three weeks

[Changedname78]

What will happen? Obviously things will take a long time to go back to complete normality but will shops re open? Will people be able to go back to work ?

Scientists, Epidemiologists, Doctor

What counter arguments have you got?

This is why antibody testing is vital & is the next urgent step

That is so true.

I do believe that a peak is coming in around a week, but really, really hope it won't be 5700!

The 5700 figure in the study is the estimate of total deaths altogether -(with upper and lower boundaries as well). The estimate of actual deaths on 5 April - the peak day - is 260 (again with upper and lower limits). Could be right, could be wrong, but interesting to know about.

**Australia has been hit. It's pretty warm there at the moment.

There are cases everywhere. Seventy percent of people will get Covid-19. The cases will continue to go up, mainly due to testing. But this will lower the death rate since majority of cases are mild.

That figure does sound realistic (hopefully towards the lower boundary !) fingers crossed antibody testing is on its way.

Ignore the title. This is one.
en.globes.co.il/en/article-lockdown-lunacy-1001322696

Where have you got 70% from just out of interest ?

Countries like Thailand and have incredibly low death rates, single figures. Fingers crossed that the end of usual flu season here will also spell a reduction in the spread of the virus.

Stormy I think the thing is, people need consistent clear rules for this to work, and for all of society to do it. People also need to know they can't just take off to this that or the other location, wherever they fancy (and as far away as they fancy) but it was "ok" because they "drove there".

The basis of lockdown is that people stay at home. Like, stay at home. Just stay at home. It's really... that simple.

How can we know when the coronavirus lockdown should end?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-can-we-know-when-the-coronavirus-lockdown-should-end-ct22d8w0h

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow
*"I don’t understand the point of fucking up the lives of our children to save people who have already had their shot at life.

This lockdown is ridiculous and I say that as someone with two elderly parents, who agree entirely."*

But even if many people agreed, this approach would also sacrifice many medical staff who have not had their shot at life, leaving their families bereft.

@StormyClouds Yes, it probably is safer as far as being in contact with other people is concerned, but the fact is it's an unnecessary journey and all journeys, necessary or unnecessary, involve a certain amount of potential risk: breakdown, road traffic accidents etc.

The government doesn't want people moving around too much from place to place, spreading the virus, potentially having accidents and needing the use of already stretched NHS resources.

Rules have to apply across the whole country and they have to apply to everyone's journeys.

Essential travel, means essential travel, whether someone lives in the middle of a city or a ten minute drive away from a forest.

Forests and other such places in the county I live in have shut their car parks for this reason and have put out message for people to stay away and not park in the streets around the forests, which is what's been happening.

Far from their journeys being harmless, people are causing massive problems for the local people.

The same with seaside towns, they want people to stay away.

Look at this tweet and ask yourself how you can trust a police force who write:

"Some of us nerdy cops feel like kids at Christmas when there's new legislation to play with. Soooo what powers of detention do I now have under The Public Health (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020 wink?"

You haven't linked to a tweet. Which Police force are you saying wrote that and do you have a link please?

Seventy percent of people will get Covid-19. The cases will continue to go up, mainly due to testing. But this will lower the death rate since majority of cases are mild

I agree - but what death rate is 'acceptable' to you - because you seem to have some kind of issue with social distancing and the lockdown because you don't have faith in a study.

UK population is 65 million.

70% is 42,000,000 (approx)

0.1% mortality is 42,000

1% is 420,000

We don't know the mortality rate if you get the virus. But 1% mortality is a hell of a big number of people.

@donquixotedelamancha

It was the Metropolitan Police that tweeted that. Link is here

twitter.com/BigBrotherWatch/status/1242244263058059265

"Some of us nerdy cops feel like kids at Christmas when there's new legislation to play with. Soooo what powers of detention do I now have under The Public Health (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020 ?"

Also, why are governments following this one study only? A model based on little testing and hardly any data?

It's not based on little testing and hardly any data. It's based on what the WHO have so far.

That's not theoretical data, it's an average number of people dying and an average speed of transmission. Both of those are high for a disease of this type.

The cost of that data was those 24,000 dead bodies you keep seeing on the news.

This won't be over in 3 weeks and things aren't just going back to normal. A lot will change. It may be a bit like emerging into a parallel universe. Familiar but different.

@Mumlove5

Would you like to be ill at the moment? If we had a lot of hospitals, and capacity, then maybe the NHS could cope with the very large numbers of people who need treatment - such as a ventilator or an ICU bed.

But we haven't got enough hospital beds or equipment to handle a large number of people who need treatment. So this is why the curve needs flattening. Or else a lot of people who need treatment won't be able to get it - and people who need other urgent treatment for e.g heart attacks, strokes etc,, won't be able to get a bed.

@StormyClouds that links shocking- !

It was the Metropolitan Police that tweeted that. Link is here

Thanks. It was the local team for one station, not the Met itself. I see they've appologised already.

We are aware of the tweet sent by an officer and apologise for the content and the lack of sensitivity used. It should never have been sent and has now been deleted. An internal investigation will be conducted and the officer has been spoken with.

twitter.com/MPSCannHall/status/1242458094124380167

I'm not sure an obvious (if very ill judged) joke by one officer constitutes evidence we should not trust the police.

Cann Hall Police
@MPSCannHall
·
Mar 24
Good Afternoon,
We are aware of the tweet sent by an officer and apologise for the content and the lack of sensitivity used. It should never have been sent and has now been deleted. An internal investigation will be conducted and the officer has been spoken with.

Clearly it's not a Metropolitan Police policy, but it shows the mindset of a large number of police officers. If they're willing to post that on a public forum, who knows what they're thinking and doing behind closed doors?

The entire country did a U-turn because of this one model. Ferguson grossly over estimated the deaths and how long a lockdown should be. Now he’s back tracking saying a long lockdown will destroy the economy. Duh!

We need a lockdown to help the NHS get on track and slow the spread. We will not stop the spread. That I agree with him on. Once that is clear, we ease restrictions. Ferguson actually said he’s now confident the NHS will be able to cope!

“We think that in some areas of the country ICUs will get very close to capacity but we won’t breach them at the national level,” he said, predicting that the worst of the first wave was likely to pass within three weeks. But, he added, there would be a cost. Thanks to the stringent measures used to save the health service from disaster, “we will be paying for this year for many decades to come in terms of economic impact”.

@pigsDOfly,it is essential for me to drive for a few minutes to walk my dog,he is a rescue dog and needs to be kept away from other dogs!!!
There are more dogs than ever being walked in my village,during the day this week.

Our local Police Force have actually posted on theair Facebook page today that this is allowed,someone asked them the question,the Police who are saying you can’t are wrong,simple as.

So get down from your high horse and stop thinking you know best.

@donquixotedelamancha your right, but it does only take one (idiot)....plus you can't help but imagine that was joked about in the station- funny enough to put on Twitter...

Ferguson grossly over estimated the deaths and how long a lockdown should be. Now he’s back tracking saying a long lockdown will destroy the economy. Duh

Didn't he say what the death rate would be if we did nothing?

What do you think would have happened if we just kept on washing our hands and relying on herd immunity?

Would you have been willing to stick with that?