To be worried about coronavirus part 4

[idontusuallypanic]

I looked and couldn't see another 4th thread.

I'm personally worried this morning as I've heard that two students ds goes to school with have just returned from Milan where cases have just rocketed.

the specialists at my work say that the quarantines and isolation is mainly to try slowing the spread if the virus so that it doesn't peak at the same time as the seasonal flu.

The 9% was more not long ago (12 or 13% last week if I recall correctly) so I think it is coming down slowly. Agree it's still alarmingly high though.

The % of severe active cases has come down a few % in the last few days too.

Running the numbers another way, if you assume that there's not a single fatality more, that every known case recovers, then the deaths to date still give a CFR rate of 3.35%

If you assume that half those currently serious or critical die (which is consistent with some of the studies I've been reading) but none of the mild cases die (again, consistent with the evidence base) then you get a CFR rate of 9%. Just where it's now sitting.

Either are much higher than we've been lead to believe.

Thoughts?

I have another stupid stats question, so I'll join you Motorina

The cfr for those with chronic respiratory illness is 6.5% but, given the high number of deaths in the elderly and the high number of elderly who have respiratory illness, isn't that just the amount of those illnesses you'd expect to see in that population. Or, is that 6.5% over and above the expected CFR in various age populations?

@AvocadoOwl thank you - that's reassuring.

Breaking News: Erster bestätigter Coronavirus-Fall in Baden-Württemberg . t.co/bFeB2jVcIm
First German case

Fucking hell. In Milan.

I'm mean the German guy had been in Milan.

Ignore that I wrote that it's the first German case because it's not. It's a new case though

My uncle bought some gold a few weeks back and it's value has increased by 13% since!

This is fascinating. And hopefully useful, for those worried about symptoms

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/#examples

"My uncle bought some gold a few weeks back and it's value has increased by 13% since!"

My silver is doing well too!

our local supermarket had a big offer display of corona beer on this afternoon...

@Mordred 😂

My husband works with the markets and he's been buying silver too. I'm sure I read that the good facemasks have a layer of colloidal silver in them?

The Swiss case announced earlier today...

www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/covid-19_switzerland-confirms-first-coronavirus-case/45579278#.XlV-M9nKcHY.twitter

Switzerland reported its first coronavirus case on Tuesday in canton Ticino in the south of the country which borders Italy.

Laboratory tests carried out in Geneva uncovered a coronavirus case in canton Ticino, authorities said on Tuesday. The Federal Office of Public Health told reporters in Bern that the male patient was in his seventies and had been infected in the Milan region of Italy during an event on February 15. The first symptoms appeared two days later, explained FOPH director Pascal Strupler.

Suggests virus was already circulating 10 days ago. Perhaps more widely than we already know.

If that argument were valid, shouldn't that percentage be dropping off by now? It's stayed remarkably steady at 9% even though 37.5% of cases have now reached an outcome.

When I first started paying attention to the Johns Hopkins data page, the number of deaths was much higher than the number of recoveries. Gradually it has changed - first recoveries caught up with deaths, then they overtook them. I've been relieved every time the ratio has increased - when recoveries got to be double the number of deaths, then triple, and so on. In the last couple of days we've reached the 'recoveries are 10x deaths' point, which felt like a reassuring milestone. Certainly at the moment the numbers are going the right way.

I read something earlier saying that exact thing. There was someone who had been to Italy 14 days ago. I'm hazarding a guess that it's rife in Milan.

I think its higher because it is a percentage of known cases. The assumption is that because quite a lot is asymptomatic cases. Diamond Princess will I think be revealing as it showed that 50% of cases were asymptomatic (though that might have changed) so the cases we know are the tip of the iceberg

www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

@eeeyoresmiles - thank you

@ofwarren

I read something earlier saying that exact thing. There was someone who had been to Italy 14 days ago. I'm hazarding a guess that it's rife in Milan.

Do you remember where? It's REALLY unsettling me right now. Wondering whether to pull ds out of school.

I'll try and find it. I sift through so much crap though it might take a while 🙈

Ive just heard about the schools closing in the UK following school skiing trips to Northern Italy, I suppose its good the UK is taking it seriously.

This report is worrying though
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/youre-likely-to-get-the-coronavirus/ar-BB10mmoE?li=BBoPRmx&item=personalization_enabled:false&fdhead=intl30ip

ofwarren the cdc announcement in the USA today troubles me too

I think they have been keeping it quiet for weeks there to avoid panic ( US is gun heavy ownership / free speech / protect my property etc ) so unsure how compliant US citizens will be with being told what to do ...

I think they have issued this statement in preparation of announcing lots more cases over there

Should we expect a similar announcement from UK government I wonder ?

Especially with school closures and escalating cases of people in Europe returning from Italy

NEW: Spain reports another case of coronavirus, the country's 4th case in less than 24 hours t.co/eUoE2b20hL