To be worried about coronavirus part 4

[idontusuallypanic]

I looked and couldn't see another 4th thread.

I'm personally worried this morning as I've heard that two students ds goes to school with have just returned from Milan where cases have just rocketed.

From what I've read they live in Innsbruck and had recently been to Italy.

NEW: Listen to today's briefing by the U.S. CDC., telling Americans to prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus t.co/HbWdp38JQQ

mobile.twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1232208118899257344

Interesting if slightly alarming graphic. Music doesn’t help. Apologies if it’s already been shared.

The Six Nations rugby match between Ireland and Italy, due to be held this weekend in Dublin, as been cancelled due to risk of Covid19 transmission.

The Italy recovered vs death rate is horrific. I assume that’s because it takes along time to get recovered status, but if it takes a long time to kill you as well, the numbers remain disturbing. I’d like to think that’s because they haven’t identified the whole cluster yet, but I also have to bear in mind the WHO talking about no iceberg.

What's the thing about no iceberg? Surely part of the point of an iceberg situation is that there are undetected cases, so it must be hard to determine that there aren't any cases you don't know about?

Could it also be that the cluster is for some reason made up of more vulnerable people for some reason Could well be, Italy has a lot of older people, and the outbreak is in the rich North where tend to people live longer (excluding Sardinia). Plus it was/is carnevale so lots of people mixing at events.

My 86 year old nonna is from Lombardy, so I'm worried for her.

Please could someone tell me where to find a list of the twelve Italian towns in lockdown.

@meredithgrey1 the WHO said today, please correct me if I’ve got this wrong, that there was no iceberg of undetected cases in China. That is China though.

There are thought to be 11 towns on lockdown at the moment containing at least 50,000 inhabitants, with 500 police controlling 43 access points - Codogno, Castiglione d'Adda, Casalpusterlengo, Fombio, Maleo, Somaglia, Bertonico, Terranova dei Passerini, Castelgerundo and San Fiorano in Lombardy; as well as Vo' Euganeo in the Veneto region.

Thanks Middleager - I have been searching for ages for that!

Source: news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-travelers-from-northern-italy-must-self-isolate-11942709

The Seventeenth - haven't got the link but I looked earlier, many of them are South East of Milan

Thanks Tokyo & Angels.

DS wasn't in Innsbruck at all, so hopefully nothing to worry about.

The video (on BBC news front page) of the Iranian health official frantically mopping his feverish brow during a Covid-19 press conference is quite something.

porcupine from a couple of pages back.

I would actually prefer that my 58 year old DH doesnt die from Covid19 while immunosuppressed on chemo following bowel cancer.

Equally my 20 year old DD would prefer she doesnt bring it back home while commuting from London so her dad gets ill.

Or my 23 year old DD in a ski resort in the French Alps currently having a horrible dry cough and not feeling at all well would rather not be affected.

This kind of "oh it only kills if you are ill, old or immunosuppressed
/otherwise under the weather" takes no account of the realities of people's lives and the potential ripple effect.

‘The hotel seems to be acting normally, except that we can’t go out,’ said a guest who is among those locked down at a hotel in the Canary Islands amid a coronavirus scare t.co/S0dXTY03Au t.co/r00Meigjua

Ok I was relaxed about husband going to the US next week because of the relative lack of cases but now seeing the CDC stuff I'm worried about it exploding and him bloody getting stranded there!

BREAKING: Algeria announces first case of #Coronavirus. The person is an #Italian tourist

It's started to get to me now. I don't usually get fased by these things - big believer in stats.

But today I went into my local, small town to try & buy face masks & every pharmacy has sold out. That shook me a bit, even though I know face masks aren't effective. Just want to try to do something to protect my family if I can.

Was speaking to a consultant (doctor) friend of mine today. She said it's coming - they don't know how bad it'll be but not to underestimate it! She was particularly concerned that it's killed seemingly healthy young adults - not just the old and infirm. We have an immunocompromised son and DD and DH travel into London everyday. Also have school going children. I'm am beginning to get twitchy!!

Could it also be that the cluster is for some reason made up of more vulnerable people for some reason- I seem to recall some were in hospital before virus was confirmed, or am I clutching at straws.

The outbreak started at a hospital, so they were all people who were particularly unwell already.

They don't represent the population as a whole.

Its not good that people are dying, and I certainly don't subscribe to the 'well they were old so its alright' mentality.

Its more that knowing that they were particularly at risk, means the death rate looking so high needs to be seen in a particular context, rather than being thought of as representative of the population as a whole.

Freda that music is bonkers isn’t it! I was looking at the screenshot and thought Coronavirus looks less infectious than the others, then as it goes on, boom

This is the full video with more context

mobile.twitter.com/kengray1967/status/1232247274958458881

2 new cases of #Coronavirus in #Italy in the last 35 mins.

I'm going to ask a really stupid question here... On the Worldometre site it lists deaths as 9% of cases with outcomes. And we've been told by all sorts of sources that that is an artificially high CFR, partly because in the early days of the outbreak only the most severe cases were diagnosed, and partly because many of those diagnosed have not reached an outcome yet.

I get that. That makes total sense. Or, at least, it made total sense a couple of weeks ago. But we're nearly two months into this thing. If that argument were valid, shouldn't that percentage be dropping off by now? It's stayed remarkably steady at 9% even though 37.5% of cases have now reached an outcome.

Statistics aren't my strength, so I'm hoping someone can chip in, because that has me worried.