to be worried about coronavirus part 3

[peridito]

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

This is a study of 44,672 cases in mainland China, including 1,023 deaths. weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

Table 1 shows a breakdown including comorbid conditions in 504 of the patients. Chronic respiratory disease is confirmed present in 7.9% of those cases.

Yes - sorry if I was sounding very pedantic. I suppose I’m worried like everyone else but I’m trying to separate opinion from fact (to be positive I suppose). Also the doctors were male and over 50% of males smoke in China and even in the UK it’s well known young medics are the worst for smoking! I actually think they succumbed due to a reduced immune system resulting from (probably) exhaustion, stress and exposure to other illnesses at the hospital. Let’s not forget that coronavirus isn’t the only Illness in a hospital - even in Wuhan. So who knows!
I’ve just done exactly the same though - speculated on things I don’t know about. I suppose that’s what humans do in the absence of facts when faced with a problem

It seems a number of doctors have died from it now. I think if they had existing respiratory illnesses it would be reported.

All Chinese cities are in complete lockdown, no one's going to work, all schools are closed. That in itself is a huge red flag for me.

I know no one is saying this on here, but if it was 'just the flu' why are they going to such drastic measures to contain it?!

The Italy numbers are very worrying.

It’s definitely not just the flu. Even the most optimistic person on the planet can’t think that now surely. And believe me, I tried at the beginning

It's not a flu virus, it's potentially more serious and also being new, unlike the flu, nobody has immunity and there is no vaccine.

What may seem like drastic containment measures are an attempt to prevent it becoming a global pandemic which could overwhelm healthcare services (particularly in poorer countries, but wealthier ones would struggle too) and have huge global economic implications. As well as resulting in large numbers of fatalities.

Flu isnt just the Flu in that sense. I will say again it is not just a cold. The Spanish Flu Pandemic affected 1/3 of the worlds population and killed between 20-50 million people.

HOng Kong flu in 1968 wiped out 15% of the population of Hong Kong.

It is of course different to the flu as they are both

The difference of course is not in its potency but it in newness. We have no immunity to it and unlike flu where each year it is look at what version is going to be about (HXNX) and create a vaccine we have no such measures in place.

At the moment it is looking a lot like the Spanish Flu Pandemic with its mortality rate. Bird flu has a mortality rate of 60%

But flu, yes the way it is acting right now is not that different to a flu pandemic. We have just been lucky in the past 50 years that the only flu pandemic we had was swine flu with a very low mortality rate

Its a viral pandemic the fact it is COVID 19 a coronavirus not Influenzavirus doesnt make a hell of a lot of difference

Oh yes of course @Quartz2208, I agree 100%

HOng Kong flu in 1968 wiped out 15% of the population of Hong Kong.

No it didn’t - it infected 15% and had a 0.5% mortality rate.

plantpotpot sorry that is what I meant was typing and distracted (apologies by a glass of wine)

By point though is that this isnt that different to other pandemics - we dont know the mortality rate yet (and wont until it dies down).

The difference of course is we have been lucky in not having one for awhile and the fact that it isnt a influenza one. That brings with it a lack of knowledge in terms of treating.

Don't be too worried. I read the article on BBC, the death rate is around 0.5% outside HuBei area at the moment. I get the impression that around 85% cases are mild, then 15% cases are serious, however, with dedicate health care, most will be fine. The trouble with HuBei area, is the limited medical resource with a sudden high number of cases.

I guess, if we have an update of the flu casualties worldwide everyday, it can be scary as well. Just read somewhere, there are already 14,000 death in USA for the flu this season.

Wow - 14,000! And yet we’re worrying about 1 case in the uk (not even death). I know it’s about ‘potential’ but even in Wuhan it’s 2,500 deaths. Not 14000

Iran International @iranintl_eng
Turkish media announced, on Friday, that after speaking with #Iran's Foreign Minister, #Turkey's Foreign Minister said that, according to his Iranian counterpart, there are 758 cases of suspected infection by the #coronavirus in Iran.

3 days ago there were no cases in Iran...

We would all have the same issue that Hubei province had with high numbers needing healthcare though , if a large number of people are ill at once

Saying that only 15% need healthcare/ hospital care is still bad

If you stay in a small average market town with population 100,000 and 15% need hospital care all at once there will not be 15,000 hospital beds available at the same time, nothing close to that

I’m guessing this is what overwhelmed the Chinese system as the serious cases all seemed to present at once within a small time window ...

I think the “80%” not affected line is distracting from the actual issue the remaining % of hospitalisation will bring.

This is what worries me quite a bit

Could the UK avoid this scenario ?
Am I overthinking this ?

according to his Iranian counterpart, there are 758 cases of suspected infection by the #coronavirus in Iran.

If those figures are true, then that puts Iran as the second largest outbreak, behind China.

Very worrying for a country who claimed to have no cases just a few days ago.

Apologies, I didn't see the word suspected. Ignore my previous comment. I thought it was just cases, as in confirmed.

Italy has reported its first Coronavirus death, a 77 year old male.

I do wonder what the next month / two weeks will bring? I'm getting increasingly worried about my 74 year old mum and selfishly my sons impending GCSEs

I'm not surprised by those numbers @RedToothBrush. I read 1000+ infected in Iran

The trouble with HuBei area, is the limited medical resource with a sudden high number of cases.

We're not flush with spare hospital beds here though, and won't be chucking up 21 new hospitals in the next month.

Well, I'm Officially Worried now. DD1 is working in Morzine, 30 miles from the initial UK superspreader. She has a really bad cough, doesnt know if she has a temp but feels like shit. Also has an upset stomach. Her management are rubbish, and she has to do changeover day tomorrow for up to 60 people. Luckily not handling food at the moment.

WTF do I tell her to do?!

However, since the 9 case a week ago, there is no further case so far. I think it is not that easily spread. It's the close contact and indoors. Otherwise, there are should be lots of cases already. So I don't think there will be the scenario that the whole town's population all catch it.

Does anyone know what happened re the potential outbreak in a ski chalet near Chamonix that was in the news a couple of weeks ago? I don't think I've seen anything in the news about that recently - did they all test negative?

61 negative test results from people in the resort, but since then, someone who also stayed in the chalet (who was in preventative isolation just in case) has developed it.

Read a while back, NHS said that they had prepared 50 premier bed plus 500 bed for this.