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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to be worried about coronavirus part 3

999 replies

peridito · 18/02/2020 09:28

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

OP posts:
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30
RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 14:42

Five nurses at Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo are infected in South Korea too. The first cases in the country where medical staff are patients.

UtterlyPerfectCartoonGiraffe · 21/02/2020 14:48

I’m trying not to think about ACE-2 receptors as dh is Japanese and an ex-smoker. However he’s good at wearing masks and is really careful about washing his hands.
It’s a worry with how quickly it’s spreading in Japan, especially with having in-laws there.

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 14:50

Bno newsroom @bnonews
Iran's health ministry: "Based on existing reports, the spread of coronavirus started in Qom [and] has now reached several cities ... including Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht and other cities and it's possible that it exists in all cities in Iran" - Reuters

But of a jump from first case being identified only 3 days ago.

Ties in with rumours that there are cases in more than a dozen hospitals throughout the country.

Also being reported that there have been 4 deaths in Iran. 13 cases officially in total.

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 14:52

Sorry 13 more cases (which includes the 2 new deaths)

The new cases: seven people diagnosed in Qom, four in Tehran and two in Gilan.

18 cases in total.

WaterSheep · 21/02/2020 14:58

Ties in with rumours that there are cases in more than a dozen hospitals throughout the country

It would also make more sense as to why the Canadian woman and the Lebanon case, have tested positive after traveling from Iran. If the cases were indeed as low as they are officially claiming they are, then these 2 individuals would have been unbelievably unlucky to have caught the virus from just those 13 confirmed cases.

WaterSheep · 21/02/2020 14:59

Apologies 18 cases not 13, although my point still stands.

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 15:18

Sui-Lee Wee
1. I've been covering the coronavirus outbreak in China since last December but I think what's going on outside China is really worrying, and revealing. My latest with @imakiky What a Party in Japan May Tell Us About the Coronavirus’s Spread

2. First of all, there are many anecdotal reports from Japan that many of these people had no symptoms. Many found out later that they had the virus only after being tested. Public health experts say there's no evidence that asymptomatic people can spread the virus but ...

3. The accounts of asymptomatic people from Japan gel with what Chinese doctors are reporting from some of their patients.

4. SARS spread mostly through prolonged, close contact or in hospital-based settings. This virus seems to spread through more casual contact. In 1 case, a doctor in his 60s tested positive after dining with someone who was infected. He, too, did not have symptoms.

5. Japan says they can't fully trace transmissions in more than 1 case and that it has entered a "new phase" in its fight against the coronavirus. So we can expect more social distancing measures to be announced. eg. work from home, canceling unnecessary meetings.

6. Japan and Singapore are incredibly transparent with reporting information about their clusters. Public health experts are looking to these countries to tell them a lot about the virus: transmissibility, severity, how if affects the young vs old, among others.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-clusters.html#click=t.co/IZhw0uL3Ia" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-clusters.html#click=t.co/IZhw0uL3Ia
What a Party in Japan May Tell Us About the Coronavirus’s Spread
Will the virus spiral beyond China? Public health experts are closely studying cluster cases in other Asian countries.

Rain was falling on the night of Jan. 18, so the windows of the Tokyo party boat were shut. Inside were about 90 guests of a local taxi association who were celebrating the new year as the vessel floated down the Sumida River. Also on board, unbeknown to them, was a coronavirus capable of spreading ferociously.

It did just that. A driver in his 70s soon fell ill with fever; he later tested positive. The same day as his diagnosis, his mother-in-law died; she also was infected. Officials then discovered that 10 others from the boat were, too, including an employee who had served passengers from Wuhan, China. Still more who did not attend the party caught the virus after coming into contact with those who did.

And

Four days after the river cruise, on Jan. 22, the mother-in-law of the taxi driver in his 70s said she felt fatigued. Six days later, the woman, who was in her 80s, sought medical help but was told to monitor her condition. On Feb. 1, she was hospitalized after being given a diagnosis of pneumonia.

Her respiratory condition worsened, and she was moved to another hospital on Feb. 6. She was given the coronavirus test on Feb. 12. A day later, she died, and the results of her test soon came back positive. Her death was the first from the virus in Japan.

After health officials in Tokyo discovered that the infected taxi driver was the son-in-law of the woman who had died, they started tracing his contacts. They discovered that he had attended the boat party, and tested everyone who had been there. Seven others who were confirmed infected said they had no symptoms.

Others, like a female employee of the taxi drivers association who did not attend the party, contracted the virus after having casual interactions with those who did. In yet another case, a doctor in his 60s tested positive after dining with a nurse — the wife of a taxi driver — who had been at the party. He, too, did not have symptoms.

And

Another cluster of cases in Japan has occurred in Wakayama Prefecture, where a surgeon in a hospital, a colleague of his, the colleague’s wife and their child tested positive for the virus, as well as two patients who visited the hospital. One of them was a farmer in his 70s who went to the hospital after the first doctor had stopped working.

The mother, wife and younger brother of a patient in his 60s from the same hospital also came down with the coronavirus, as did a nurse in his 30s who had temporarily worked on the Diamond Princess as part of the disaster response.

Yoshinobu Nisaka, the prefecture’s governor, said he could not rule out the possibility that infections had occurred within the hospital. “We’re having trouble tracking down how these people were infected,” he said at a news conference on Saturday.

The issue is any cluster that hasn't been identified. As the situation with the woman in the cult is demonstrating...

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 15:18

Sui-Lee Wee @suilee

FourTeaFallOut · 21/02/2020 15:22

So stats on Italy have changed. 9 patients, 1 recovered and now 7 serious/ critical.

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 15:22

It would also make more sense as to why the Canadian woman and the Lebanon case, have tested positive after traveling from Iran. If the cases were indeed as low as they are officially claiming they are, then these 2 individuals would have been unbelievably unlucky to have caught the virus from just those 13 confirmed cases.

Indeed.

One rumour is there are around 2000 suspected cases in Iran. That would of cause indicate a lot more cases unidentified too.

That would make a lot more sense with 2 people leaving Iran and now testing positive.

It seems highly likely that there is a large outbreak in Iran.

One of the concerns with Qom has to be the fact that its a religious centre too. Which means lots of comings and goings both within Iran and more widely.

chazbl · 21/02/2020 15:24

My feeling is, it might be something we can't stop spreading, and it spreads particularly quickly BUT most people aren't badly effected by it (a cold or worse chest infection or worst pneumonia), it's obviously very scary with so many people dying but at least the % is relatively low and not dissimilar to flu. Seen today it's in south korea, how can you contain something that catches so easily?

HasaDigaEebowai · 21/02/2020 15:29

The percentage of people dying is not similar to flu though.

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 15:32

Re Italy
www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2020/02/21/coronavirus-six-people-infected-in-lombardy-4_4d8c8975-04ba-422d-976a-e397861f3792.html
Coronavirus: Six people infected in Lombardy

The first six people have been infected with the coronavirus in Italy, all in Lombardy, regional health councillor Giulio Gallera said Friday.
They are all about 40.
Gallera urged people to stay at home and avoid social contact.
He said some 250 people had been placed in isolation and would be tested for the deadly virus.
All six are in serious condition, Lombardy Governor Attilio Fontana said.

Welfare official Maria Gramegna said authorities were trying to establish whether a second batch of three cases were linked to an initial trio in Lodi.
"We are investigating," she said, "they are three people who presented with a clinical picture of pneumonia at the hospital at Codogno, we're trying to understand if there were contacts with the first three cases".

"For the first time we have moved from cases of importation to cases of local circulation of the virus".

The first case is a man, 38, who is believed to have got the virus after dining with a friend who had come back from China.

The other two initially infected people are the 38-year-old's wife, a pregnant teacher on maternity leave, who has also been admitted to the Codogno hospital, and a third person who went to hospital suffering symptoms of pneumonia after having had contact with the 38-year-old.

The teacher had not been in contact with children.

The 38-year-old man has been admitted to the intensive care ward of a hospital at Codogno near Lodi.

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 15:35

By the sound of the story in Italy, it sounds like it's likely that there will be more cases in this cluster.

RedToothBrush · 21/02/2020 15:37

Schools, bars, restaurants and sporting facilities have been closed in Codogno until at least Sunday.

It does stress that it's possible that places could be shut down quickly if a cluster appears nearby.

LoadsaBlusher · 21/02/2020 15:40

Regarding the Singapore info graphics posted ...

over 50 people still hospitalised

From what I have read it’s not so much the death rate in itself that is most worrying , it’s the need for long term ( weeks ) of hospital treatment that can potentially cause major problems

V little spare bed capacity in the UK

runninguphills · 21/02/2020 16:27

Ive been watching this unfold closely and feel today is a real turning point.

Whereas it has been a huge issue in China and the cruise ship has demonstrated its high transmission.

I feel today we can see that our reported cases worldwide (outside China) are just the tip of the iceberg. Due to the rate of transmission with mild or no symptoms - its impossible to contain.

I expect to find the numbers outside China to accelerate over the next week or two.

LoadsaBlusher · 21/02/2020 16:40

I think this too runninguphills

I think the western press will change their reporting in next few weeks too

It’s all been weird non news items at the top of the news feeds last few weeks , when I think this potential outbreak / pandemic situation is more important.

Zero said from Boris or Trump on how the USA or UK will handle it.

Hush hush hush

Are they waiting until it snowballs / escalates like current situation in Iran / Italy

WaterSheep · 21/02/2020 16:46

I also find the lack of mainstream news coverage odd. It's being reported, but usually something like this would whip the media into a frenzy, and at the minute the reporting is pretty nonchalant.

nibdedibble · 21/02/2020 16:49

I’m fairly sure all advice from health agencies will be to not actively stoke a frenzy of worry and self-referral whilst they get in with planning behind the scenes. I’m sure media will have been asked specifically to not sensationalise this.

AvocadoOwl · 21/02/2020 16:53

I think most of the UK media have been reporting it all very responsibly (bar some tabloid hysteria I have seen).

For me the Guardian coverage has been best UK-wise; more info than the likes of the BBC but calm and measured at the same time.

WaterSheep · 21/02/2020 16:54

I’m sure media will have been asked specifically to not sensationalise this.

It doesn't usually stop them.

I agree that they shouldn't sensationalise things, but they don't seem to be reporting events in the same way they did for past pandemics, such as Swine Flu. Usually they love to report all the gory details, to the point it's over reported. This time it feels different.

LoadsaBlusher · 21/02/2020 17:12

Yes I think it feels different too

nibdedibble · 21/02/2020 17:34

Lessons learned I reckon

GorkyMcPorky · 21/02/2020 17:36

I’m fairly sure all advice from health agencies will be to not actively stoke a frenzy of worry and self-referral whilst they get in with planning behind the scenes

I really fucking hope so. I read that China are building umpteen new hospitals. Don't see any sign of that here.