to be worried about coronavirus part 3

[peridito]

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

*jews (of European ancestry) have one of the lowest number of ACE2 receptors.

@WaterSheep This is what I fear. So far I have no proof only what people say on twitter. Let’s hope that it is not the case and that it is really fake news.

@ivybush123 that's interesting to know. There are a lot of flights from Tehran to Istanbul and there's also their land border.

There was a list circulating about ace2 receptors and ancestry. Han Chinese and Japanese were high on the list with over 90% chance of being infected if exposed. UK caucasian were around 65% I think, Similar for lots of areas in Africa. The list was odd with an area of Spain being the lowest from memory.

But there's no proof yet that its a factor. It was for SARS but this is a different virus.

COVID19: Imperial College London launches free online course exploring science behind outbreak:
www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195455/covid19-imperial-launches-free-online-course/

here

According to this list only 7 percent of those living in Lebanon have the ACE2 receptor genotype: twitter.com/sircontraire/status/1229369554104549376

Yet it seems they still can get corona virus.

I think the genie is out of the bottle now. Because of the long time lag for symptoms to appear and the fact it does resemble a cold, I can't see the authorities containing it for much longer.

Fingers crossed, the statisticians are right and it turns out to have a low CFR.

The general public are just looking at mainstream news. Which has very little updates just now. Once it arrives here and is in mainstream news will when people start worrying

This is interesting regarding it and explains why it could be a factor

blogs.plos.org/dnascience/2020/02/20/covid-19-vaccine-will-close-in-on-the-spikes/

The breakdown of cases by country on here

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

shows Italy as having a high percentage (7) of their dx cases (9) as critical /seriously ill .

seems odd ?

People's Daily, China @pdchina
#Wuhan, epicenter of the novel #coronavirus outbreak, plans to build another 19 #makeshift #hospitals by next Tue to receive more infected patients, local authorities said Friday #COVID19

Re Iran: The problem I see arising here is Iran's involvement (although denied) with Syria.

If it spreads to Syria then the problem is going to become exceptionally difficult to handle. There are large refugee camps without the capacity nor capability to deal with an outbreak. People afraid of 'the plague' in refugee camps are going to be more likely to move. From that you have refugees trying to flee to Europe where there is healthcare available. All people 'off the radar' to authorities.

That's going to be particularly problematic to places like Serbia and Bosnia, just outside the EU, where a lot of refugees are turning up and getting stuck. And places like Greece which are on the front line in the EU.

Eastern European countries have particularly high rates of smokers, above average age population (due to young migrating west) and an infrastructure which isn't really up to the job.

It's going to cause massive political fall out, as well as economic and health related crisis.

It starts to get messy very quickly.

Stopping flights at this point, only slows the inevitable.

@Redtoothbrush: I hope there is a cure soon. What about remdesivir and chloroquine?

When people get flown back, are there special adaptions made to the planes? What precautions do the flight crew have to take? It’s fascinating. And rather too dystopian.

I dont think they are looking at a cure more a vaccine and ways to manage it?

Also, how did it get to Iran? Was it someone from China? Sorry for Qs, I’m getting up-to-speed with this.

Also, how did it get to Iran? Was it someone from China?

I don't think any of the Iranian cases have been linked to China yet, but one case in Canada has recently returned from Iran and tested positive.

One of the problems with a vaccine is going to be who owns it. And who can afford it.

The other thing is how effective it will be.

I saw a doctor talking about reinfection and how antibodies don't last very long in some people.

The flu vaccine is renewed every year, rather than a vaccine like measles which lasts a lot longer.

That's going to be a logistical issue too. How do you vaccinate everyone. Who gets the vaccine first? Who is more valuable versus who is more at risk.

Then you have production issues. Especially if various places are shut down or struggling with the effects of the disease or there are items in short supply. All these things have the potential to slow down roll out.

There was talk of a vaccine being available in 12 months. That's now being pushed back to more like 18 months.

That's all without considering that proper clinical trials into the side effects are going to be difficult (if not impossible) to do in that time.

If children aren't dying of the disease, would you want your child to be given a relatively untested vaccine? Big questions there.

And of course 18 months is going to be far too long for a lot of people. By then it will be too late with the first wave of COVID-19, most likely to be in full swing throughout the globe.

It's difficult to see an alternative to a massive crisis looming everywhere at this point. It is just all about ability to manage the crisis rather than stop it now, I fear.

Also, how did it get to Iran?

This is an unanswered question.

Iran had maintained flights and trade with China when other have not. They have apparently encouraged tourism between the two countries since the start of the outbreak too.

Information being shared by government in Singapore

Thanks both. Interesting and terrifying.

The opaqueness on lots of levels from different countries and parties is going to be a big problem.

I mentioned the word dystopian earlier. I worry that China or other countries will use this as a way of whittling down their prison population, or as cover for the demise of certain individuals a regime finds troublesome.

HasaDigaEebowai

I saw that list and had exactly the same thought, but another study suggests ACE-2 expression is more to do with smoking history than race:
www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v2

Hard to know what to believe!

Thats why I asked about remsdesivir. I heard that it could cure SARS in monkeys and also prevent infection if they were given it before exposed to SARS.

I also heard that at the time of SARS they had a vaccine that was released to early and made matters worse. Not only that did not prevent SARS but it made it more deadly because people died from cytokines storm (overreaction of the immune system).

Bno newsroom @bnonews
UPDATE: Lebanon's first case of coronavirus is a woman who recently flew from Iran - AlJadeed

South Korea now has 204 cases. 128 are related to the cult. South Korea has declared Daegu and Cheongo as “special management zones".

I think how South Korea, Singapore and Japan handle this are going to be good guides as to how things will work out here.

The Japanese government has already heavily been criticised with over half the population thinking its being handled badly, especially with the Princess Diamond.

This is the stuff that can cause governments to fall.

Absolutely @DandyArgo, especially the Uighir who are in 'education' camps in Xinjiang.