AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

I think the incubation period can be a lot longer than what we are being told

"What we are being told?" No, it might be longer than current medical opinion thinks it is. There's no benefit to health services and governments in lying to people about what they believe the incubation period is. We don't need to spend our time imagining things are worse than they are or whipping ourselves up into a frenzy about all kinds of possibilities. This virus clearly has the potential to be very serious in a significant minority of cases and public health services are trying to minimise the spread if that is possible. The Chinese authorities may have covered up stuff at the start, and may still be hiding things, but the WHO, the CDC, PHE etc have no interest in 'covering up' or obfuscating.

Here is another article saying that it is more deadly when you get it the second time: www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

I hope it is not true . It would explain the higher mortality in Hubei and why it is so mild in Europe... because they had it the first time.
It would also explain why those who are discharged as discovered in Wuhan are still wearing masks. I saw that on pictures.

What do you say about the article?

*How do you think about the article?

What does "the meds they use are damaging the heart tissue " mean ?

All but one of the nine patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus have been discharged from hospital, the NHS has confirmed.

NHS England and NHS Improvement said that eight people who tested positive for COVID-19 - the disease caused by coronavirus - had left hospital following two negative tests.

@IvyBush123
It is compulsory to wear a mask in public places in China during the virus outbreak, regardless of whether you have the virus, have recovered or have never had it. Mask wearing in my city (not Wuhan) has been compulsory since 25th January.

@IvyBush123
It appears to be the same source, which is from someone who told someone, who told someone.
There doesn’t appear to be any evidence.

There is nothing that sounds particularly medically sound in that article. Certain medications can cause heart failure (cancer drugs for example) so if any part of it is true you wonder what on Earth they were trying drugs wise!
Other than that if the timeline is true it would be hard to get it twice

it says though Albatross that they have been in hospital a week already? but for some reason only tested positive now? Another Brit

They tested positive a few days ago but it seems it was only made public yesterday.

Another brit who was in the same chalet. So technically it doesn't seem to have moved outside where it was known to have been and isn't in the wider community

The sun are reporting the 8th month baby has been given the all clear.

The sun are reporting the 8th month baby has been given the all clear.

Thank you, i've been wondering about the outcome for him.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-china-reports-drop-in-new-cases-for-the-third-straight-day-11934549?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
Coronavirus: China reports drop in new cases for third straight day

Chinese President Xi Jinping had played a muted role in the early days of the epidemic, which has been one of the biggest political challenges of his tenure

But state media published a speech on Saturday which Mr Xi delivered on 3 February, during which the Chinese president said he gave instructions on the fighting the virus as early as 7 January.

The disclosure indicates top leaders knew about the outbreak's potential severity weeks before such dangers were made known to the public.

This seems to have been released by the state in a way as if to suggest that regional authorities didn't follow instructions by the president and he had to step in and take control by issuing the lock down.

This again seems to be passing the buck and showing up his weakness.

Yesterday there was a NY based account which had information in Chinese with official looking stamp stating that the Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan, issued an entry control notice on January 2nd. No outsiders were to be allowed in; special cases had to apply for permission and anyone with a temp above 38c was to be denied entry.

We know the outbreak started in early December and doctors were already concerned by the end of the month. Indeed
the Chinese National Health Commission sent out an emergency noticed on the 31st Dec 2019. Obviously the military took this rather more seriously than a lot of other officials.

The US also issued assistance to China with the outbreak as early as 6th January.

<a class="break-all" href="https://thehill.com/regulation/healthcare/483071-cdc-director-coronavirus-will-stay-with-us-beyond-this-year?amp#click=t.co/rs8PWp4MEJ" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">thehill.com/regulation/healthcare/483071-cdc-director-coronavirus-will-stay-with-us-beyond-this-year?amp#click=t.co/rs8PWp4MEJ
CDC director says coronavirus could stay in US through this year and beyond: CNN

So far, only the World Health Organization (WHO) has been helping China assess the outbreak. When asked if the CDC is not working in China for political reasons, Redfield said, "All I can say is it is above the director of CDC because I know he would love to have that as a system."

"There's a lot of information we don't know - that's why I offered to provide assistance, direct assistance, and send our CDC folks over there back on Jan. 6 to really help them gather that information and also to help us see the information first hand that we need to help make the right public health recommendations for our nation," Redfield said.

"That letter has not been responded to yet by the official Chinese government."

So the growing picture is a question of why certain things were done early on but other things were not.

The lack of response to the US though, does go right to the top which makes it all the more difficult for the president.

Interesting move to release that speech.

Melissa Goh @MelGohCNA
Samples were taken twice from 83 yr old American woman for tests. Both results were positive of #COVID2019 : DPM Dr Wan Azizah.

Malaysia Airlines has cancelled chartered flights to ferry #Westerdam passengers home

All cruises that’ve been to China banned from docking in Msia

Less than 10% of #Westerdam 1455 passengers and 802 crew members were tested but Cambodian authorities have gone on to declare COVID-19 free : DPM Dr Wan Azizah said Malaysia will not allow anymore cruise passengers to enter the country. 137 had left, 6 under quarantine at KLIA

Had the authority known earlier, the 137 #Westerdam passengers that landed at KLIA via MAS chartered flight wouldn’t have been allowed to leave but they left before 83 yr old American was tested positive.The six were denied boarding by KLM that caught the news just in time Kudos!

Mech Dara @mechdara1
Malaysia has claimed that both results is positive of #coronavirus for 83-year old woman on #westerdam. The second test follows cambodia demand to re-test her throughly. Cambodia's MoH claimed that it had checked throughly &cooperated with #WHO & #USCDC before they left

What a mess.

These 137 are really high risk too.

There is video footage that the Cambodian didn't follow WHO protocol properly but instead wanted a nice publicity stunt.

Hard to see how we will avoid a pandemic when multiple governments are getting caught out for improper handling of the situation at the very highest of levels.

Here is another article saying that it is more deadly when you get it the second time

Well, there is precedent, such as for dengue fever but in that specific case, the subsequent infections must be from another of the 4 serotypes of dengue virus. At this stage, is there any evidence that there's more than one serotype of COVID-19?

PS: Dengue virus, in case anyone gets alarmed, is a flavivirus and not a coronavirus.

PPS: People who fly-by shouting "it's just like the fluuuuuu because it's a coronavirus" are demonstrating the Dunning-Kruger effect. Coronavirus is a class of virus type. Whilst it's very hard to directly compare to biological taxonomic ranking, it would be a bit like saying "maned wolves, red foxes and Yorkshire terriers are all the saaaaaame!" because they're all Class Canidae.

PPS. In fact, it's an even bigger distinction than that, because influenzavirus isn't even a coronavirus - it's a member of the Orthomyxoviridae (negative-sense ssRNA virus). Coronaviruses are a class of positive-sense ssRNA viruses. So by some methods of classification (e.g. Baltimore), one could argue that all influenza and COVID-19 have in common is that they're RNA viruses. Which would be like saying "amoebae, bananas and people are all the saaaaaaame!"

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/15/exclusive-millions-told-stay-home-coronavirus-continues-spread/
Exclusive: Millions to be told 'stay at home' if coronavirus continues to spread
Health officials expected to order anyone with the sniffles to 'self-isolate' at home if the virus is not contained

Anyone suffering flu-like symptoms could be ordered to “self-isolate” for a fortnight if the number of coronavirus cases in the UK hits the hundreds, in what would be a dramatic shift in Government strategy.

Over the last week, hospitals across the country have created “isolation pods,” to ensure that anyone tested for the virus is kept away from other patients, with efforts to track all close contacts of confirmed cases.

But The Telegraph understands that after a series of high-level meetings health officials are expected to change tack - and simply order anyone with possible symptoms of flu to stay at home - if the virus is not contained.

I think I've pretty much covered this subject already and the knock on effects of it...

... I think the timing of when this might happen is crucial.

Normal seasonal flu die down as the weather gets slightly warmer but COVID-19 seems unaffected by weather.

So if this were to come in around March it would not be so crazy and more viable.

But I don't see how some companies and services have the capacity to cope. Certainly I think adult social care, nursing and teaching might really struggle.

Unless thought is given to how to deal with problems like that then there could be massive harmful (including life threatening) knock on effects.

I think this is your official heads up to make sure you have a few extra bits and bobs in the house though if this is seriously being considered.

About the #Westerdam my friends and family in Malaysia are like [shocked][shocked][shocked] at Cambodia's irresponsibility. Presumably the flights were allowed because the Cambodian authorities had claimed all passengers were tested clear.

with efforts to track all close contacts of confirmed cases.

Which doesn't include those who travel in a potentially contagious taxi, and those who were more than 2 rows away on a plane but used the same facilities.

The news from the Telegraph is very sobering about staying at home if you have any symptoms. I'm going shopping shortly to boost our household supplies - things like toilet rolls, binbags, dettol spray, and hand sanitizer.
If it gets worse in this country, would things like power and water supplies be affected?
DH thinks I'm completely overreacting but I think this could be a whole lot worse than what we're officially being told.

The Telegraph article is ridiculous - no named sources so highly unlikely to have any truth in it. It’s winter - people have cough and colds. There is currently only one person in the UK still in hospital with the virus. It’s being well controlled. Well done to the NHS.

Parker reading your post quckly I saw " Currently only one person in the UK without a cough and cold"

That Telegraph article seems designed to sell papers and mad .

The Telegraph article is ridiculous - no named sources so highly unlikely to have any truth in it.

The Telegraph isn't the most reliable paper. It does like to sensationalise.

It is however the personal paper of choice for Johnson. And given that Johnson (like any tinpot authoritarian into grand building projects) thinks building a bridge from Scotland to NI is a good idea, I'm not discounting apparently nutty ideas from this government.

The mail have a rewrite of the Telegraph article (as its pay walled)

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8008677/amp/Millions-flu-like-symptoms-told-stay-work-coronavirus-spreads.html?__twitter_impression=TRUE

It seems that the plan would kick in after the first 100 cases

Senior managers have been informed that the NHS could stop testing patients once the number of UK cases reaches 100 and if there is evidence of 'sustained transmission' within the UK, the newspaper understands.

And

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab called for 'more international cooperation' to ensure that the virus does not escalate into a global pandemic.

The World Health Organisation advises countries to do in-depth investigations of at least the first 100 confirmed cases of any pandemic.

Britain's Pandemic Influenza Response Plan includes how the 'first few 100 cases' have protocols in place to ensure isolation and treatment to ensure medics can gather sufficient information about a new virus.

However the plan details how a different approach should be taken if there is 'evidence of sustained community transmission'.

The number of people in the UK tested for the virus has quadrupled in the last week from 686 to a staggering 2,992.

The NHS tested 763 patients on Thursday alone despite the capacity being 1,000 per day.

Proffesor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, told how the current approach by the health service aims to contain and delay the spread of the virus in a bid to 'buy time'.

1 new case in Hong Kong, a 54-year-old man with no travel history and no known contacts with confirmed cases.

The patient, who lives at Ming Kung Mansion at Taikoo Shing, had consulted a doctor on February 7, and then to Eastern Hospital three days later.

However, officials said his lung scan was clear and showed none of the hallmarks of someone infected with coronavirus, plus he had none of the usual risk factors like travel to the mainland or contact with any known patients, and was therefore not tested for the Covid-19 virus.

He was eventually diagnosed only after he went back to his doctor on Thursday because he was still unwell, and was admitted to Eastern Hospital on Saturday, where he was finally tested.

I don't think the telegraph article is ridiculous at all. I'm sure that they will stop testing after the first 100 cases. That's what they did with swine flu and this will be no different. They were also ask people to stay home if they don't feel well although they won't do anything to help those who lose money as a result. Some people can work at home though so this will potentially increase.

I think there will reach a point where testing is meaningless if the virus is in the general population. Not only meaningless but actually could mean resources as spending time diagnosing takes it away from the critical cases.

It is what they did with swine flu as the doctor diagnosed based on symptoms not on a test