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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

999 replies

IvyBush123 · 10/02/2020 19:29

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
6
littlemissmuffins · 12/02/2020 11:48

The impact on thousands / tens of thousands (or indeed hundreds of thousands) of all employees, families and people, IF this is not contained, would be far worse.

At least 16 other countries including the US and Australia, have complete bans in place on air travel to or from the most affected areas. We aren't even checking people's temps at Gatwick!! Never mind banning travel to stop multiple more cases like the Brighton man who infected people whilst he wasn't even symptomatic after flying from Singapore.

fannyanney · 12/02/2020 12:44

I have a couple of possibly daft questions, but if someone could be kind enough to indulge my stupidity I'd really appreciate it.

  1. Disclaimer; I am 100% confident that I just have a regular cold, so I am just musing really.

I have a minging cold right now. I caught it from pre school aged child. What's to say that it's not Covid, and it's spreading way faster than we think? Say one child at nursery has a parent that spent the weekend in Brighton, said parent brought it back, passed it to their child who then passed it to mine etc etc.

  1. Once you've had the virus, can you get it again? Or will you build up some sort of immunity?
PuzzledObserver · 12/02/2020 12:49

I have a minging cold right now. I caught it from pre school aged child. What's to say that it's not Covid, and it's spreading way faster than we think?

The early symptoms of a Covid 19 are fever and cough, and sneezing/runny nose are uncommon. Does that sound like what you have? If your temperature is normal and you are sneezy/snotty, you’ve probably got a cold.

If you are concerned, ring 111.

Once you've had the virus, can you get it again? Or will you build up some sort of immunity?

It’s too soon to tell.

PuzzledObserver · 12/02/2020 12:53

and then there’s this, from the NHS:

Symptoms of coronavirus

The main symptoms of coronavirus are:

a cough
a high temperature
shortness of breath

Urgent advice: Call 111 now if you've been:

  • to Wuhan or Hubei Province in China in the last 14 days (even if you do not have symptoms)
  • to other parts of China, including Macau and Hong Kong, in the last 14 days and have a cough, high temperature or shortness of breath (even if it's mild)
  • to Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Republic of Korea or Malaysia in the last 14 days and have a cough, high temperature or shortness of breath (even if it's mild)
  • in close contact with someone with confirmed coronavirus

Do not go to a GP surgery or hospital. Call 111, stay indoors and avoid close contact with other people.

Tell 111 about any recent travel and any symptoms you have.

fannyanney · 12/02/2020 12:55

@PuzzledObserver

No no, certainly not concerned! It's very much just musing about whether it could potentially be everywhere already.

PuzzledObserver · 12/02/2020 13:05

@fannyanney I also have a cold - it started just under two weeks ago, and I think I got it from my husband, and he got it from the man sitting next to him at a concert a few days before, who was coughing and sneezing all the way through.

We didn’t ask him if he’d recently returned from China. I still don’t think any of us have Covid because the symptoms don’t match.

TheGirlFromStoryville · 12/02/2020 13:09

Does anyone know if you are in reasonably good health and catch COVID19 is it likely to be mild? Or is it unknown as to how your body would react?
One would assume the 2 Chinese victims here would be in reasonable health, young etc, and yet no update as of yet.

I was going to start stocking up on food and water etc in case there is a pandemic here, DH thinks I'm overreacting.

NaturalBornWoman · 12/02/2020 13:16

New York Times is reporting that the virus has ‘jumped ship’ from the cruise liner. Not a terribly helpful report as they are saying that someone has tested positive after ‘surveying’ passengers but not specifying how closely.

BatSegundo · 12/02/2020 13:29

TheGirl the evidence thus far suggests that if you're young and healthy, you're more likely to avoid a severe course. But there have been older, unwell people who've survived it and a few younger, fitter ones who haven't. So no guarantees either way. Also, your definition of young may not fit with the WHOs. A recent study with 138 severely ill patients put the median age at 52, which is younger than my DH. It's still too early to say what the biggest risk factors are, though there are emerging theories.

Aureum · 12/02/2020 13:50

The news is reporting that in some cases coronavirus may trigger a “cytokine storm” (an excessive immune reaction which triggers viral sepsis) and this is worse in those who have strong immune systems (ie the young and healthy). This is how the Spanish Flu killed so many people. Coronavirus can also result in acute respiratory distress syndrome which can lead to long term lung damage and functional disability.

RedToothBrush · 12/02/2020 13:52

Siobhan Robins Sky
Just spoke to a spokesperson for Thai Department of Disease Control re: prisoner in Uk being tested for coronavirus after being transferred from Bangkok Remand Prison. He told @skynews the prisoner left Thailand 27/1 (16 days ago). 1/2

Just spoke to a spokesperson for Thai Department of Disease Control re: prisoner in Uk being tested for coronavirus after being transferred from Bangkok Remand Prison. He told @skynews the prisoner left Thailand 27/1 (16 days ago). 1/2

3/3 they confirmed that there is no coronavirus outbreak in the Thai prison system. {As background Thai prisons are very cramped so you would expected to see more cases if this prisoner had been infected in Thailand. } They are waiting to speak to Public Health England for more

This means

  1. The Thai authorities are lying
  2. The Thai authorities are not lying but he was in contact with someone who was asymptomatic in Thailand and had a longer incubation period than usual (but still within the upper end of 24 days which has been suggested as possible)
  3. He caught it in transit either at an airport or via someone he came into contact with whilst travelling
  4. We have a lot more cases in the UK than we are aware of, and its in a prison somehow (given large numbers in close close proximity of a prison, this is theoretically possible). These are asymptomatic too.
  5. he doesn't have coronavirus

5 is by far the most likely

All the others raise a hell of a lot more questions.

BernadetteRostankowskiWolowitz · 12/02/2020 13:53

The York patients are no longer at the RVI. Not sure why that hasn't been reported. Evidently they are recovered and have been allowed home.

PuzzledObserver · 12/02/2020 14:04

How do you know, if it hasn’t been reported?

UtterlyPerfectCartoonGiraffe · 12/02/2020 14:04

www.dimsumdaily.hk/japanese

Natural the Cruise liner is the Diamond Princess which is docked in Yokohama, Japan. Sounds like a Japanese health worker/ government official who was overseeing the quarantine process.

Japan is in a really tough position. A high percentage of tourists to Japan are Chinese, a lot of Chinese nationals live in Japan and would have traveled back for Chinese New Year. And on top of that, they’re having to deal with the 100+ cases coming off the ship that has docked in Yokohama. I came across this news article which is horrifically sad (tw, mentions suicide) about the death of a worker tasked with overseeing the repatriation of Japanese nationals from Wuhan. The article isn’t explicit about the reasons why, but there are claims of the quarantine process not being safe, locals fearing the disease would be passed to them and a huge amount of pressure on Japanese health care staff and government workers to get things absolutely right.

FourTeaFallOut · 12/02/2020 14:07

Phe say no new positive results today. That's good news. Surely by this point that includes the prisoners and the uni student?

RedToothBrush · 12/02/2020 14:08

New York Times is reporting that the virus has ‘jumped ship’ from the cruise liner. Not a terribly helpful report as they are saying that someone has tested positive after ‘surveying’ passengers but not specifying how closely.

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN206019?__twitter_impression=true
Japan cruise ship coronavirus cases climb to 175, including quarantine officer

About 3,700 people are on board the cruise ship, which usually has a crew of 1,100 and a passenger capacity of 2,670. Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said in parliament that he wanted to expand testing to all passengers and crew on board, and that authorities could muster resources to do more than 1,000 tests a day, according to national broadcaster NHK.

And

Re the 39 new cases confirmed today:

Kyodo news agency, citing the health ministry, said that of the 39 cases, 10 were crew and 29 were passengers.

Ten were Japanese nationals and the others were from 11 countries, including the United States and China. Four were in serious condition, Kato said.

And

The quarantine officer who was infected had been handing out questionnaires checking the health of passengers and crew and had been following rules that require the wearing of a mask and gloves but not a full protective suit, according to the Nikkei business daily, quoting the health ministry.

Lack of goggles? Contact transmission involving handling infected paper? Poor management of protective clothing?

Quite remarkable that they are only now considering testing the whole ship.

Also 4 of the latest 39 cases are serious which begs a few questions of how much those who haven't been tested as being monitored.

MiniMileyMoo · 12/02/2020 14:20

De lurking...a relative of mine has been tested for it this week (returned from Asia last week - not China- and now has sore throat etc). Was initially told test results in 12-24 hours but then changed to 72 hours and currently self isolating. So I think there must be a big of a back log on testing (and therefore gov figures?) but would guess those who have been in contact with a confirmed case would be prioritised.

Zorona · 12/02/2020 14:20

4 of 39 is a high number of serious cases isn’t it?

RedToothBrush · 12/02/2020 14:21

Phe say no new positive results today. That's good news. Surely by this point that includes the prisoners and the uni student?

Everything I've seen about testing UK suspected cases suggests it is taking a long time to get results back. Possibly upwards of 24 hours. So, I don't think that means those two suspected cases have turned out negative yet.

That ties up with information about a lack of testing equipment, skills and labs globally to varying degrees:

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/labs-scramble-spot-hidden-coronavirus-infections
Labs scramble to spot hidden coronavirus infections

Within days of Chinese researchers releasing the sequence of the virus on 11 January, scientists developed tests capable of detecting genetic sequences that distinguish the new agent from other coronaviruses circulating in humans. By 28 January, China’s National Medical Products Administration had approved diagnostic test kits from five companies. It was an astonishing pace for the response to a pathogen never seen before—and yet it was only a beginning.

Today, there aren’t nearly enough test kits available to keep up with the skyrocketing case numbers, and some parts of the world may lack enough trained laboratory staff to apply them. And because the genetic tests look for snippets of viral genetic material in nose and throat swabs or fluid collected from the lung, they only work when somebody has an active infection. Scientists are still scrambling to detect antibodies against the virus in the blood, which could help find people who had an infection and recovered.

Similar questions loom elsewhere. No cases have been confirmed in Africa, but there has been little testing. Initially, only two African labs were capable of detecting the virus, says John Nkengasong, who heads the African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention: “If this virus had shown up in Africa in December, or early January, it would have been devastating.” The continent is better prepared since a workshop in Dakar, Senegal, last week where lab workers from 15 African countries were taught how to use one of the new viral tests, which are based on the polymerase chain reaction assay, Nkengasong says. (Another workshop will follow next week.) Given that the virus has spread so widely, however, Farrar says he would be “very surprised” if it isn’t already in Africa.

Even in the United States, test kits are in short supply. Regulations require that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) supply all tests, but that agency only began to do so on 5 February and has shipped a mere 200 kits so far, each able to do at most 800 tests. U.S. officials still don’t test most people flying in from China but focus on those who have symptoms of the disease. “We’re not able to do the surveillance that we would want to do,” says Wendi Kuhnert-Tallman, who heads CDC’s laboratory task force for the virus.

HRH2020 · 12/02/2020 14:26

There is a poster on another thread who has been waiting to hear for longer than three days. I think there are only no new cases due to delayed results.

TheGirlFromStoryville · 12/02/2020 14:39

Scary times. I'm 46 and DH is 59 and I am terrified of anything happening to us or the children (selfish I know.)
So glad it's nearly half term - hopefully things may be a little clearer by next week.

I'm wondering if more schools will close as a precautionary measure?

RedToothBrush · 12/02/2020 14:40

Apparently only 500 on board the cruise ship have been tested for coronavirus so far.

It also appears that the new 39 cases were from a batch of 53 people tested

Re the age of the passengers (no details of crew)
The decision to let elderly people and those with chronic illnesses leave was apparently made in consideration of passengers grappling with extreme stress during their prolonged isolation on the ship. As of last Wednesday, about 80 percent of the 2,666 passengers were age 60 or older, with 215 in their 80s and 11 in their 90s.

There were plans being discussed to remain people with chronic health conditions from the ship even if they've tested negative so far, and to put them in quarantine somewhere else.

Which suggests they are getting very concerned about how much its spread on board.

FourTeaFallOut · 12/02/2020 14:43

Ah, I'll put my half-full glass away then.

lemonjumper · 12/02/2020 14:45

There's a guy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship who is posting daily updates on Reddit and answering questions, in case anyone is interested in reading it!

www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/ezrn2x/im_a_us_citizen_aboard_the_diamond_princess/

meredithgrey1 · 12/02/2020 15:05

The York patients are no longer at the RVI. Not sure why that hasn't been reported. Evidently they are recovered and have been allowed home.

Is that right? The BBC just said 7 people are being treated in hospital in the UK. If we've only had 8 confirmed cases and the Brighton businessman left hospital today that leaves 7 including the two in York?

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