AIBU to ask if you are worried about the new coronavirus? - continued

[IvyBush123]

Here is the old thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3813759-AIBU-to-ask-you-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-Coronavirus?pg=40

Here is a twitter video from Wuhan I want to share because it so heartbreaking. People happily celebrating shortly before it became known that there was a virus outbreak. There already were some rumors but people didn’t believe them:
twitter.com/WLaowai8/status/1225637845508837377

@Yourtunbridgewells: The info you are sharing (472000 deaths in the UK) is very scary. Is this a worst case scenario.

@justdeckingthehalls: Epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding writes that it is airborne on twitter: twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226236552059260928
N95 masks help against airborne transmission don’t they?

Was surprised to see they have already named and have pictures of the prisoner who was extradited from Thailand and now being tested for Corona Virus (this is in Bullingdon nr Bicester). One report says two prisoners have now tested positive.

Just surprised they named him so quickly.

Now we have an A&E worker as confirmed (One of the 8 cases). That is not reassuring as they would have been working with/near the most vulnerable people.
Several schools have pupils and staff in isolation and some are shit. We potentially have a prison full of it.
Current known death rate 19% based on deaths / deaths plus recovered.
You cant't do this any other way as you need known outcomes. Given it takes people 3 weeks to die from this horrid virus, you can't use today's case rate.
(Not saying that there aren't many more cases that were never tested for and possibly a number who have recovered but haven't been tested or they don't have capacity to test. )

A couple of moral dilemmas, which I think some people may be facing:

1. Do I send my child to school? I'm on the fence on this - don't want to expose to unneccesary risk if it's in your school. But at the same time there is a benefit to keeping things calm.
   DH reckons if the children were to get it and the worst were to happen, they would have liked to have spent time with their friends first or doing the stuff they love. (Sorry that is very morbid.)
   Same dilemma for people going out to eat, to theatre, to concerts, weddings etc.
   (DS has a theatre trip to a musical in London coming up. It's a trip of a lifetime but I'm not sure I should permit. What about the concert I saved for 4 months to buy tickets for?)

2. Irresponsible spreaders. Maybe it was early on enough for Mr Super Spreader to genuinely claim ignorance. However, at this point if someone comes back from say Thailand and then goes blasting around the place - at what point should they become responsible for their actions? What if they think they have a cold? Is it still acceptable to go round to mass gatherings of people thinking you have a cold and then say "Well I didn't know it could have been coronavirus"....maybe this person is not up to date with the news and was a patient of an infected doctor......
   At some point someone's irresponsible behaviour will have fatal consequences. Are they ever culpable?

Now we have an A&E worker as confirmed (One of the 8 cases). That is not reassuring as they would have been working with/near the most vulnerable people.

I wonder if they're contacting all the people they've had contact with and telling them to self isolate?

Now we have an A&E worker as confirmed (One of the 8 cases)

I'd missed this update. I suspect we will see a rise in the number of cases. Thinking about the health of those who attend A+E, and how the staff member interacts with the hospital environment and other staff members. There's a high chance it has been passed on to others.

A seventh Brighton and Hove school has sent an email to parents, as they have 2 families self isolating due to contact with a potential case of Covid19.

From New scientist...Transmission dead ends
"By contrast, many cases may not spread. To get an average R0 of under 4, the super-spreaders must be balanced by cases with very low R0."

So the panic that all of the doctor friends of the original super spreaders will have infected multiple patients on the same scale that Mr Brighton did is statistically unfounded. Hopefully!

I'm surprised Echobelly mentions coworkers still travelling to China. I have been hearing only of companies rolling out bans on staff who have been in China coming on site for 2 weeks and stopping any new travel. So company quarantines.

The schools in Brighton should just all close now and take an extra week after half term in my opinion.

I hate to think of a prison population being at risk of the virus .I wonder when the results from Bullingdon will be known and when made public .

It's a bit concerning I think, that the UK cases involving the man from Brighton and the Oxford prison case had contracted the virus in countries still officially reported as having very low numbers of cases. There were barely any reported cases in Singapore when the man was there, and still cases are low. Ditto the man in prison in Thailand. They would have to be spectacularly unlucky to have caught it when numbers so low??

I also find it worrying that a member of the community of Queen Margaret University in Edinburgh who has recently returned from Thailand and has presented with flu like symptoms, is NOT being tested for coronavirus, is just self isolating. Surely given the prison case and the growing number of cases in Thailand, we should know as soon as possible if this person has the virus so contacts can be traced and isolated. Don't know if it's just me, but I think the powers that be are a bit asleep at the wheel on this?? We have a chance to contain this as much as possible, why aren't Scotland taking it??

Complacency?

Singapore authorities had tested and confirmed cases and hence the guy in Brighton was told he had had possible contact with the virus. Thailand is more an unknown unknown.

A colleague of mine got back from Thailand on Monday

I don't know how aware he is about the advice to self isolate, and I'm torn between seeming a bit hysterical mentioning it and wondering whether I am?

The prisoners haven't tested positive as yet though I believe?

The prison thing is very worrying, considering how overcrowded our prisons are - how could they even self-isolate?

I'd personally like to hear about the conditions of the 8 infected in England. I guess GDPR prevents us hearing anything about that.

I just think that the authorities here have the chance to stop this in it's tracks now, a narrow window of opportunity, and they should be doing more.

China had 45 cases on 16 Jan.. and now at over 40,000. It spreads fast.

Why are planes still going back and forward between the UK and Thailand?? That seems crazy to me.

I'm assuming YOLO that the prisoners would be put in isolation cells. That would be awful for them for 2 weeks. If it spreads, they would be able to lock down the cells.

between the UK and China?? I meant

I'd mention self isolation being advised if you develop flu like symptoms.

Most People do not follow news closely.

I agree about the flights.

NoSharon, It's been 2 weeks since the York cases and not a word..

most cells are shared though, there surely arent enough isolation cells? I can just imagine that overcrowding is a surefire way for it to spread quickly.

Singapore authorities had tested and confirmed cases and hence the guy in Brighton was told he had had possible contact with the virus. Thailand is more an unknown unknown

Thailand have 33 confirmed cases though.

I'm assuming YOLO that the prisoners would be put in isolation cells. That would be awful for them for 2 weeks. If it spreads, they would be able to lock down the cells.

Sky News reporting that the one prisoner and another one who they presume was his cell mate are in a hospital part of the prison. All other prisoners are confined to their cells.

Evidence shows it can be spread before symptoms show, or when symptoms are really mild. Brighton man infected others while he was on holiday, and didn't show symptoms until back.

Self Quarantine if coming from China, Singapore, Thailand would be better. Although I don't think that's the official advice at this point.