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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?

999 replies

IvyBush123 · 04/02/2020 06:41

I am not sure if there is reason to worry about the new Coronavirus. I am not a medical expert but to be honest feel a bit scared because we know so little and some experts seem worried. How do you think?

OP posts:
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RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 14:51

And thank you for your patronising response RedToothBrush, I too am a scientist and quite comfortable with critical thinking.

Well THINK then!

Its not apparent you are from what you said about a debunked conspiracy theory.

Mollie3 · 07/02/2020 15:05

I’m not worried because it seems just a new type of flu and government being very cautious with quarantine etc

HasaDigaEebowai · 07/02/2020 15:08

I’m not worried because it seems just a new type of flu and government being very cautious with quarantine etc

Have you actually read anything about it @Mollie3 It isn't a flu and millions of people are in lockdown over it with people literally being welded into apartment buildings so that they can't leave and spread the virus further. You need to be worried.

WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles · 07/02/2020 15:16

FFS I just typed a long post and lost it Angry Apologies if it appears twice!

"Scrutising stuff in the news or other sorts of publications (including very boring and long legal, medical and political documents) and questioning its quality and credibility, remains something of a personal hobby. I have been known to do it on MN occassionally. Like as in a tedious a broken record type of 'occasionally'"

@RedToothBrush I just wanted to say, I for one really appreciate your thoughtful posts (and especially from the FWR boards). Definitely not a broken record! Even if I didn't sprain my eyeballs generally at Americans were behind 9/11 you know I would "give more weight" to your posts as I know you research the hell out of your stuff and explain things very articulately.

reesewithoutaspoon · 07/02/2020 15:23

I,m more concerned that our governement are saying they are well prepared. The NHS is barely coping with the normal seasonal outbreaks of respiratory illnesses and thats after a lot of people have already had the flu vaccines.
From reading the lancet of the first 99 cases.
13 ended up on ventilators and 4 on non invasive. thats approx 20% of cases needing intensive care type support.
If we had a large outbreak there would not be enough ICU beds. people would die because there was a lack of ICU available to them

FourTeaFallOut · 07/02/2020 16:28

amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/30/6000-passengers-stuck-on-cruise-ship-in-italy-over-coronavirus-fears?__twitter_impression=true

Jesus, the thought of this Italian mayor, hanging out his Fiat 500, giving out shit to the harbourmaster for even thinking about disembarking the cruise ship with two suspected cases, is fucking surreal - like the stuff of movies.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 16:41

Cruises are going to be cheap next year!

There's two cruise ships which have been quarantined off Japan. One which looks like it has a significant outbreak on board.

There's another one which is sailing around the far east and has been refused docking by four countries/terrorities because there was an unsubstantiated rumour a passenger had it. The crew have insisted no one on board is suspected to have it.

Then there's the one that's just had 2 dozen Chinese nationals taken off to be questioned / examined in New Jersey with reports of 'pulmonary illness' amongst them.

And now the mad Italian mayor and a cruise ship.

My in-law seem to spend half their lives on these things. To me it's just another reason to add to the list of why they are my idea of hell!

FourTeaFallOut · 07/02/2020 16:45

I've seen (on Twitter so dubious and not confirmed) people complaining that the medics taking the patients off the New Jersey cruise were not wearing any protective clothing or masks and nor were the patients. Shock

FourTeaFallOut · 07/02/2020 16:51

Just a regular old round of Noro would be enough to put me off a cruise ship.

DontCallMeDarling · 07/02/2020 17:04

Is it just me or have a lot of Governments been quite slow in offering help or even making statements about the situation? It's like they want it to spread or something.....

I would like to send a donation to help as nothing else I can really do.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 17:18

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51420320?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus: Next Britons flown from Wuhan to be taken to Milton Keynes

Not going to Arrowe Park. No idea why there is a change of location for quarantine.

DontCallMeDarling · 07/02/2020 17:25

www.redcross.sg/

In case anyone is interested in donating. It seems to be going through Singapore's Red Cross.

woodchuck99 · 07/02/2020 17:27

So now they are saying third person in the UK with coronavirus was contacted by Singapore because people at the conference he had attended coronavirus and that he isolated himself and called 111 from home. If this is true why didn't they say this in the first place rather than letting people think he had gone to hospital and potentially infected people?

ofwarren · 07/02/2020 17:27

There are videos of them taking people off the ship. They definitely didn't have protective gear on. No masks etc

woodchuck99 · 07/02/2020 17:29

Not going to Arrowe Park. No idea why there is a change of location for quarantine.

It might just be for space reasons.

NaturalBornWoman · 07/02/2020 17:47

So now they are saying third person in the UK with coronavirus was contacted by Singapore because people at the conference he had attended coronavirus and that he isolated himself and called 111 from home. If this is true why didn't they say this in the first place rather than letting people think he had gone to hospital and potentially infected people?

I wondered yesterday if this could have been the case as I saw on the flu tracker forum that someone in Malaysia who tested positive had been at a conference at the Hyatt Hotel in Singapore. Surely anyone at the conference would have been traced? And hopefully everyone on his flight back to the UK and all the other people's flights too.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 18:17

From 2 days ago
mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZZ0WO?__twitter_impression=true
International business meeting in Singapore linked to three coronavirus cases

At least three Asian businessmen who attended a meeting of more than 100 international delegates at a Singapore hotel have contracted coronavirus, while others are showing symptoms, authorities said on Wednesday.

And

Malaysia on Tuesday said its first infected citizen - a 41-year-old man - had attended the meeting, which included delegations from China where the virus originated, in mid-January.

And

South Korea also reported two confirmed cases of its citizens who visited the same business conference in Singapore on Wednesday.

And

The cases are linked to a company business meeting involving 109 participants at the Grand Hyatt Singapore hotel on Jan 20-22, which included 94 overseas participants, Singapore's health ministry said.

Dates interesting on this.

The 20th - 22nd January date is BEFORE the Wuhan lock down.

The man reported himself to the NHS as he was showing symptoms on Sunday (2nd). That's at least 11 days after the 22nd. So what happened in those 11 days?

It confirms local person to person transmission was happening outside China before the lock down even started.

That's good news in some respects - its linked to before lock down and the fact he was tracked also suggests the Singaporean authorities have done well in contact tracing.

Conversely on 22nd Jan the official figure was there was only 495 cases (10 deaths). This clearly isn't true. It all just adds weight to the idea that it was already far more widespread in the population than the official figures suggest (and that there were a lot more people with milder symptoms).

This could mean the death rate is indeed lower than some have speculated.

Positives here, even though there are obvious concerns too.

DontCallMeDarling · 07/02/2020 18:29

Thanks @redtoothbrush

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 18:59

Eric Feigl-Ding @drericding
29% — that’s the % of the 138 #coronavirus infected patients who are actually infected medical staff in one Wuhan hospital. Almost 1 in 3 patients being hospital healthcare workers is just insane. New case series report in JAMA:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

2) In addition to 29% medical staff, 12% of patients had gotten #coronavirus as hospital-acquired. Quote: “Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]).”

This covers the following period at a single hospital:

Retrospective, single-center case series of the 138 consecutive hospitalized patients with confirmed NCIP at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, China, from January 1 to January 28, 2020; final date of follow-up was February 3, 2020

So first wave before they knew what they were dealing with. Suggests those patients who acquired in hospital would have been already quite ill before getting disease so particularly vulnerable and not reflective of the general population and the number of hospital infection suggests problems with infection control methods. Again as a result of not knowing what they were dealing with.

Comorbidity is therefore high too.

Of course if you have a large number of medical staff infected that also infects has the potential to be a centre of potential infection itself as its a hub to the community.

The number of infected staff surely would have affected the quality of care too.

Might explain a few things about why things appear to be particularly bad in Wuhan itself.

AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?
lollybee1 · 07/02/2020 20:02

Our local news said the MK uptake is China but NOT Wuhan.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 20:06

emotions and needs and the women are just props. When you are in this type of relationship, women aren't seen as people just things to make their man feel better, no matter what he does. Dehumanising women is still going on as strongly as ever, but with a new woke and pc twist.

Today 20:02RedToothBrush

More on that report

news.yahoo.com/amphtml/coronavirus-infected-40-staff-single-wuhan-hospital-study-183031904.html?__twitter_impression=true
New coronavirus infected 40 staff in single Wuhan hospital: study

One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday.

And

Of the 40 infected health care workers in the JAMA study, 31 worked on general wards, seven in the emergency department, and two in the ICU.

The example of the patient presumed to have infected 10 health workers highlighted the high level of danger within hospitals during the first phase of the epidemic, even though overall it is currently estimated that each patient infects on average 2.2 others.

So early phrase and data collected early on, not necessarily reflective of a wider outbreak in the general population. More awareness of disease more likely to improve infection control and protection of front line staff.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 20:07

Sorry poor copy and paste from posting on wrong thread!!!

Puzzledandpissedoff · 07/02/2020 20:09

Cruises are going to be cheap next year!

After the way they've cranked the prices up in the last 18 months that may be no bad thing!!

Though I'll probably give Diamond Princess a swerve (shame, as she's a lovely ship)

Cyw2018 · 07/02/2020 20:34

@redtoothbrush

This infection of HCP does worry me. I'm a paramedic, so if the virus does make it here in any significant capacity I will be on the frontline.

Obviously every ambulance trust has detailed procedures to follow if their is a suspected cases (symptoms/travel to affected areas) and we have full PPE, but if it really takes hold, how will we know whether our bread and butter jobs ('sob', excerbation COPD, generally unwell elderly, pyrexic and confused, 'off their legs' etc.) are actually Coronavirus so that we don't wander in unprotected?

It is concerning.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2020 21:34

It is concerning and I do have a considerable amount of sympathy for your personal concerns. My BIL works in a & e. My SIL is also a doctor. I spent last night wondering what they'd do in a big outbreak, as they have two young daughters. If they were both seconded, would we risk looking after the girls so their parents could work full time if the schools were closed. Or would that put our 5 year old at risk? Or would the girls go to their grandparents who have preexisting conditions? Would my BIL and SIL be in real danger? Its a dilemma which I hope doesn't come to pass and I don't have to think about.

Having seen that data today though, my feeling is that there could be a massive distortion of figures going on, if the first place after the sea food market that was affected was the hospitals, and this has had a significant impact on how the crisis has played out.

Poor infection control between wards meant the very sickest in the community were infected first, both blocking beds and through being just so ill, were more infectious than the general population. The net result being that hospitals effectively became not just places full of infectious people but places full of what has been termed 'superspreaders', which somehow acted to super conduct the spread of the disease as the hospital was the centre of the community in a health crisis. And to the most vulnerable visiting the hospital in a subsequent second wave of cases.

A perfect storm of failings and maximum impact incidents which overwhelmed the health care system very early rendering it not just useless but also a significant contributer to the problem. Particularly when panic started to set in through fear in the media.

One doctor made a point of saying that face masks were not enough and that the disease could be transmitted through the eyes because no one was wearing googled on wards. So we know there was poor infection control even when they started to identify what they were potentially dealing with because they'd made incorrect assumptions.

Interestingly enough WHO making an announcement about a shortage of medical productive equipment worldwide does seem to link up with this concern.

If there was some kind of perfect storm which can be identified it does mean those on the front line will be at considerable risk. This knowledge has to be a good thing, even if its concerning. I do think that measures could be put in place to prevent hospitals becoming 'super conductors' in the same way and to ensure better precautions from the word go even in your 'bread and butter' cases. The fact that all hospitals have already been told they need coronavirus isolation pods for potential cases is a start. I guess you'd be looking at lots of restrictions of movement and access on and to hospital premises as well.

Overall the drip, drip of little bits of information today I've found reassuring rather than completely alarming for this reason. There are more straws to clutch at than I felt at this time yesterday.

The fact the early death rate seems higher in Wuhan than elsewhere outside Hubai even if there is a lag in infections now has something of a plausible explanation and could have distorted creating an artificially high rate rate of death and serious complication than if it had spread via different locations more evenly throughout the general population over a longer time frame. It's not a uniform pattern which necessarily reflects what would happen in an outbreak on a larger geographical context.

The clusters outside China seem to be being well traced and identified. Although it's still a waiting game on how much its outside China. The next few days will be a lot more telling I suspect.

There's also stuff being suggested about how standard logic of using steroids which you'd use in similar circumstances potentially are actively harmful to some coronavirus patients. Again if you don't know what you are dealing with, early patients become live guinea pigs which is a risk later patients don't have.

I know that might not be enough for you given your personal circumstances but this is the closest to soothing noises I think I can get for the moment.

I really wouldn't like to be on that cruise ship though.

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