AIBU to ask you if you are worried about the new Coronavirus?

[IvyBush123]

I am not sure if there is reason to worry about the new Coronavirus. I am not a medical expert but to be honest feel a bit scared because we know so little and some experts seem worried. How do you think?

In the York case

I wonder if it's a similar situation to SARS where the immune system in healthy people goes into a sort of overdrive? So scary either way.

It depends on whether they have pre existing conditions themselves, but their age - working age - is concerning.

True . Even if they did have pre-existing conditions that doesn't mean they were on their last leg some posters seem to assume. They were clearly capable of working long hours as doctors.

The whistleblower who was accused of "sharing false Information" when he tried to warn his colleagues about the virus has just died. He was 34. He was ill for a month.

I saw some article from, I think it was the Washington post explaining that it doesn't seem to be hugely infecting children. It's so strange. I don't understand it at all.

I saw a headline for an article about in why children seem to be doing better in the New York Times but I was too cheap to subscribe.

I wonder if it's a similar situation to SARS where the immune system in healthy people goes into a sort of overdrive? So scary either way

A cytokine storm.

Research on SARS triggering cytokine storms is still only limited but it is thought it might have caused some deaths.

You'd perhaps expect people who worked in a health care environment and were constantly exposed to diseases at low level to have slightly differently functioning immune systems to the general population who were not so exposed.

The pattern with Spanish flu which triggered cytokine storms was young adults are more likely to die than those in old age or children (particularly infants). That doesn't appear to be what we are seeing to date based on the data that's been released.

The pre existing condition information is the important one. If younger people with no underlying conditions are dying then it's really troubling.

Also if the whistle-blower doctor who died, did so after a month then there is probably a huge lag on potential deaths still to become apparent.

We are only two weeks into Wuhan's lock down. And the number of known cases is still going up.

RedToothBrush can I just thank you for you considered and informative posts?

Also if the whistle-blower doctor who died, did so after a month then there is probably a huge lag on potential deaths still to become apparent.

Yes. It is noticeable that although there have only been two deaths outside China so far, not many people seem to have recovered either. If it was similar to flu they would have done by now as it is over a week in a lot of cases.

We assumed that this virus was taking out the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions based on the first hundred deaths or so but, given the lag mentioned, could it be that it takes longer to kill the young and the healthy?

We assumed that this virus was taking out the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions based on the first hundred deaths or so but, given the lag mentioned, could it be that it takes longer to kill the young and the healthy?

Maybe. I will feel better if the number of recoveries goes up because at the moment these are very low compared with the number of confirmed infections.

That's certainly something to consider fourtea I guess only time will tell

It would be good to hear if the two people from York are doing okay. The radio silence from PHE is not reassuring and their excuse that they don't want to break patient confidentiality seems quite disingenuous considering we don't who they are.

Not worried in the slightest

Not worried in the slightest

Because?

Tencent have now said that the pictures of 25K deaths and 155k infected were "doctored". But is this just another cover up - is this state sponsored to keep people calm?

There are a lot of conspiracy theories out there such as the virus was leaked from a lab, hundreds of bodies being cremated before they can be added to the death toll etc etc.

There has been press coverage of the Brighton case PLUS another case in York today.

Let's say some of this is scaremongering and bad maths, the reality will be somewhere in between.

I think the death rate is likely to be higher than represented - it may well be over 10%. But we don't know if anyone can really have a mild case because I presume they would not have been tested? This could also apply to previous virus outbreaks so I'm not clear on what basis you can establish a baseline for mortality rates.

Then we have the whistleblower doctor dying from the the virus. Presumably he was young fit and healthy. Again a lot of people are speculating that this really does hit young people hard. It's far more palatable to state deaths are from elderly or those with underlying conditions.

The harsh reality is, if this is a really virulent and deadly virus (note reports in press today of one patient who caught it from being 2 metres away from another infected person for 15 seconds at a bus stop), there is no real way of stopping it short of world wide quarrantine. Even then it may be too late.

Why have we had no reports from survivors? May be that's a cultural thing or maybe it leaves you seriously unwell for months?

There will be panic buying, stockpiling, lack of medicines for basic conditions within a few days of the UK cases rising. The economy will crash. Therefore I expect this is why we have so little information - the UK and other Governments may or may not be aware of the real situation but I see lack of news meaning the situation is very bad indeed.

Just look at the fact that hand sanitsers and face masks are completely sold out in the UK. The fear has already started, the question is how will it end?

There are some reports that Wuhan experienced a raft of pneumonia cases in September last year, and another raft in early December. I think there was a Mayo report that suggested patient zero might have been back in October.

So part of me wonders whether this virus has already come to the UK, and sone of us may have already had it. A lot of people in my area were very ill in early December with "flu", and, of course, none of them were tested to see what strain it was. It was a nasty bastard though, and left people really struggling with breathing and their chest.

My question, I guess, is how would we know if people in the UK had already contracted and recovered from this virus? Would people have to have died and had postmortum tests done? How likely is that if they were elderly and just supposed to have suffered from another flu virus strain?

Does anyone know?

There has been press coverage of the Brighton case PLUS another case in York today.

The case was negative fortunately.

The York case was negative that is

So part of me wonders whether this virus has already come to the UK, and sone of us may have already had it. A lot of people in my area were very ill in early December with "flu", and, of course, none of them were tested to see what strain it was. It was a nasty bastard though, and left people really struggling with breathing and their chest.

If it was the coronavirus we would have a similar situation now to that in Wuhan. The number of cases wouldn't have decreased.

The UK has flu monitoring and people with pneumonia are tested.
If this coronavirus had been circulating in the UK as long ago as December, it would have been picked up, as it was in China.
I'll be very surprised if back testing proves otherwise.

Let's say some of this is scaremongering and bad maths, the reality will be somewhere in between.

Thats generally my attitude to working out where there is difference in reporting and/or rumours.

Wuhan hospital are now denying that the whistle-blower doctor has died.

Let's say some of this is scaremongering and bad maths, the reality will be somewhere in between.

Thats generally my attitude to working out where there is difference in reporting and/or rumours.

Wuhan hospital are now denying that the whistle-blower doctor has died.

Visited Brighton over weekend - went everywhere, pier, bars, restaurants, cafes, shops etc

I’m pregnant and now worrying at the news of confirmed Brighton case

Am I over worrying myself?