Aibu to think the break up of the UK is inevitable now?

[KenDodd]

I think it is.

*The only part of the UK that is going to benefit from any Irish, Welsh or Scottish Indy Ref is England.

Because we will be better off 🙄*

If that were true it's incredibly weird the British government campaigns so hard to keep us in the union. Surely has nothing to do with most of the UKs fresh water, oil and gas, offshore energy capacity and fishing grounds being in Scotland....

Oil? England would go to war, politically or physically, over keeping the offshore sites until Oil is null and void as a fuel. And you aren't going to win that battle.

Good luck with that seeing as we have all your fucking nukes up here.

Whatever you think of Boris, Scottish independence would be very much worse. Scotland has no currency of its own and insufficient cash reserves to underwrite its own financial institutions. That means all of them have to move to London, to retain the Bank of England as their lender of last resort. RBS alone has £74billion of assets - and Scotland would lose any share of all their corporation taxes.
Secondly, Scotland has no credit rating on the international money markets. It would be charged high interest rates to borrow the eye watering amounts of cash required to fund its economy. Scotland has a high proportion of elderly, sick and benefit dependent people, and not enough jobs and workers to finance them. It relies on being bailed out by England via the Barnett formula.
Finally, the SNP would ditch Trident, so would condemn Scotland to leaving NATO, while also losing the protection of the RAF, RN and British army. The SNP white paper only budgets for 600 troops to defend the whole country.
In summary - an independent Scotland would be a bankrupt undefended country with the worst deficit in Europe (currently 8%, which is worse than Greece).
I’d emigrate to England if Scotland was ever stupid enough to vote for financial suicide. And I’d take all my investments with me. I think I’d be accompanied by a large number of businesses and young economically active people, to Scotland’s detriment.

"In summary - an independent Scotland would be a bankrupt undefended country with the worst deficit in Europe (currently 8%, which is worse than Greece)."

But tbh for a lot of people, they'd rather be poor and independent than rich (or ok) and under a Tory government.

The finances don't matter that much to a lot of people. That's something a lot of Tories/no voters don't seem to understand.

A United Ireland is NOT inevitable. The people of Ireland have no interest in taking on NI. And the people of NI will backtrack quickly when they see the price of their groceries, tax and loss of their NHS.

I'd agree on the tax. But...I suspect our precarious position after Brexit is going to result in rocketing prices anyway. And we barely have an NHS any more. Waiting lists that are years long instead of weeks. In fact I was reading recently that people who are trying to go private to bypass the waiting lists are even struggling to do that, as there is apparently a staff shortfall there too. The prospect of being ill in NI at the moment is terrifying, even for the wealthy.

Indyref2020 and united ireland are both trending on twitter.

Not everyone posting united ireland is in favour

But yes I’d say it’s looking increasingly likely the union is dead.

Certainly on life support.

“I wish peace and understanding to you from us in Scotland.” Absolutely same here, I can’t imagine how worried those in Northern Ireland and even Republic of Ireland must be with how things are turning out.

Can i ask irish posters - do you think Northern Ireland could possibly become an independent country - not part of either Uk OR Republic of Ireland?

I voted no before thinking I’d likely - very likely - vote yes now.

“And the people of NI will backtrack quickly when they see the price of their groceries, tax and loss of their NHS.” Not sure - are you irish or northern irish? Brexit will likely lead to increased grocery prices, the loss of the nhs is distinctly possible too. So I’m not sure those points really will deter people.

“I wonder what Queenie is thinking? She is going to be raging I bet.”
I honestly don’t think so. She’ll be glad of a Tory win and I honestly believe she and the rest of the royal family don’t believe the union is vulnerable - I think and even hope that they’re wrong.

“NI, fancy joining us in a super-celt state? (Trying to lighten the gloom...)” oh a fourth option for NI - interesting

“In Scotland, this feels like the 80s under Thatcherism” feels worse to me

“Is there much of a Welsh independence movement?”
Welsh appear to be going pro Tory

@alohamolly and @lightsinotherpeopleshouses - not sure if you posted before or after the shock Wrexham result? Plus Tory wins in clwyd south and vale of Glamorgan? I’m just wondering are they areas containing a lot of “English ex pats”? Might explain the Tory wins.

“Education has suffered under the SNP, and the NHS isn't doing so well.” I’m in the unusual position of being a Scot who was mainly raised and lived in England, now back living in Scotland for past nearly 15 years, I’ve personal experience plus information from friends and family who work in education and nhs in both countries. Education and nhs in Scotland may have declined in terms of how it used to be here - but it’s still much better than those areas in England! Also bear in mind part of that decline will have been due to reduced funding decided by Westminster parliament and effects of Westminster policies. Not saying snp perfect by any means but I’d rather be governed by them than Johnson! Or tories generally.

They’ve always been anti-Scots albeit somewhat more subtly in the past it’s now extremely overt.

Of my Scots family and friends they’re all a variety of voting persuasions with one common denominator - none would ever vote Tory.

If Scotland did go independent then surely part of creating that newly independent country would be the emergence/creation of new political parties representing a variety of Scots wants and needs.

“Another 5 years of Boris and co is also a fucking disaster.” Exactly

Just checked - my constituency an snp hold/win. Big gain for the snp Guy.

Can i ask irish posters - do you think Northern Ireland could possibly become an independent country - not part of either Uk OR Republic of Ireland?

I just don't think it's viable because we are too poor. We don't have enough employment, although things are improving a bit. Salaries are generally lower than the rest of the UK, so there wouldn't be much tax coming in, and there is a high percentage of people currently employed in the public sector. Also, we've had 50 years of little investment in infrastructure, so we lack decent roads and transport links, even things like the water and sewage system are housing are near breaking point, so that holds us back too.

If we were an independent country we'd be some sort of developing nation, it would be like going back in time (and we're already centuries behind the rest of the UK)

Whatever you think of Boris, Scottish independence would be very much worse.

I agree.

And for those who’d like to come north of the border, living in what is effectively a one party is shite. Great if you’re all for independence, but shite if you aren’t. And the SNP all speak with one voice - no dissent.

"And for those who’d like to come north of the border"

For those people, I'd just say stay in the south and make your own country better. Piggy backing on Scotland is total nonsense.

@isabellerossignol thank you for answering me.

I feel so very sad and very worried for the people of Northern Ireland right now.

Peace was so so hard won and I fear current Uk politics will defeat that peace.

It should be if the Scots get what they want but depends on the tories agreement.

Scottish here! I voted No last time and I honestly don’t know how I’d vote when another referendum happens. Because it will now 😢

I would still vote no I think. Based on the fact they still have no answers to the most basic of concerns.
Also if they got less than 50% of the vote I don’t think that’s a mandate for independence. If Scotland became independent we wouldn’t get rid of them. We can’t get rid of them now. Education is going to pot, the NHS isn’t much better and we get taxed more than in England. But the people of Scotland voted them in. She can bleat all she wants about having a mandate (that was inevitable) but she doesn’t speak for all Scottish people. The snp will never speak for me.

I voted a resounding no in the first independence referendum but I am very inclined to vote yes second time round.

loss of their NHS
The electorate in their wisdom have just voted for the continued privatisation of the NHS, so that's gone anyway.

I’m Scottish and live in England. Scotland will sink if they leave. They won’t get into the EU either. No idea why they think they can just get in no problem. It’s the tribal mentality. It’s toxic and is the reason I’d never go back. Let them have independence and see how long it takes for them to come back begging to get in again.

If Scotland had voted for independence we would have been out of Europe anyway. But NS conveniently forgets to mention that. 45% of the vote is not a mandate for independence.

It would be an amazing chance for Scotland to start again I can’t understand how anyone could want to stay attached to England. This election result is disgusting.

If England voted differently I’d be more open to staying part of the UK but it just keeps going further and further down a path I don’t want to go. Now I want Scottish independence more than anything.

it’s clear it’s a different country here.

Can we all come and live there?

At least there’s a chance of an independent Scotland becoming part of the EU, no chance of that if we stay with the UK.

And of course there’s no definite answers about how everything would work - anyone that had answers would be lying cos no one knows! But my thinking is whatever happens has to be better than the way England is going.

As a scot I have never wanted independence but I think I need to accept that is where we are heading am terrified tbh

I voted a resounding yes in the last referendum and I’m even more keen for independence now. Fuck the Tories, and fuck being dragged along by what England wants.

The unionist scare bots are out early today.

Scotland will be independent in the next decade and will be better off for it.

The thought of ANOTHER independence referendum fills me with absolute dread.

Anyone spouting shite about Scotland being worse off without England holding us up want to explain the insanely intense effort to keep Scotland?

Please the government would be happy to see us go if we were such a financial burden.

Only reading one side of the story as always.